Why would you speed run a game about making huge builds that take years anyway?
How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?
21–30 of 98 posts
Re: How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?
#22I'm not going to invest 40m watching the new video because I couldn't care less - but Dream hired a statistician to debunk the numbers in the first video. I can believe he's cheating but I don't consider it probable. Dream's success doesn't come from record settings, so I don't think he has any incentive to cheat. If anything, I believe more the allegations that his manhunt videos are staged, given that's the interes…
Well you should watch the video, because it's a great video and explains very well why it's essentially impossible for dream to have achieved his results. Your opinion if it makes sense or not really doesn't matter.
To give the gist to everyone (still watch the video, it's well worth it), if all 10 billion people on earth would be playing minecraft for every second (actually playing the whole speedrun in 1s, but that's details), for 100 years. The chance of his result happening to any one human is 1/1000. Alternatively, dreams result is 10 orders of magnitude less unlikely to have happened than the next "lucky" event that happened which was in craps.
Re: How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?
#23Earlier quoted context omitted.
Seems like the only benefit to admitting guilt is for ones own conscience, but clearly that’s not enough for many.
There are great benefits for the society, and dare I say species. Conscience, after all, is not an accident. Its a product of our evolution. We lived in small groups for most of our existence, and the very survival of the group was tied pretty directly to how well the group members worked together. Lying had consequences for a group that would not make lying have consequences for an individual. The problems is that w…
> Conscience, after all, is not an accident. Its a product of our evolution. We lived in small groups for most of our existence, and the very survival of the group was tied pretty directly to how well the group members worked together. Lying had consequences for a group that would not make lying have consequences for an individual.
Be careful making assumptions like this. I mean, you're right, having a conscience is a product of our evolution... but so is the ability to lie. You make it sound like disadvantageous qualities would be filtered out by evolution but that is clearly not the case.
Re: How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?
#24Why would you speed run a game about making huge builds that take years anyway?
Fun?
Re: How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?
#25I'm not going to invest 40m watching the new video because I couldn't care less - but Dream hired a statistician to debunk the numbers in the first video. I can believe he's cheating but I don't consider it probable. Dream's success doesn't come from record settings, so I don't think he has any incentive to cheat. If anything, I believe more the allegations that his manhunt videos are staged, given that's the interes…
> but Dream hired a statistician to debunk the numbers in the first video.
The video discusses this and tries to provide their own intuition besides the two papers, as both agree on the core odds of the likelyhood being around 2 x 10^22. They contrast this with the number of events if 10 billion (10^10) humans would do something for 1 century (10^2) every second (~3.15 x 10^7): ~3.15 * 10^19. So the odds of the event happening if more humans than we have today do it every second for a century is roughly 1 in 1000.
Lastly, they postulate it doesn't matter if they cheated, but the sheer unlikeliness shows that the minecraft run is not performing up to expectations.
Re: How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?
#26Why would you speed run a game about making huge builds that take years anyway?
Why would you build huge things in a game about killing a dragon quickly?
Re: How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?
#27Why would you speed run a game about making huge builds that take years anyway?
The game has an actual ending. The point of the speed run is to get to that which can be done in well less than an hour by the people good at it.
Re: How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?
#28I hate, immensely, how effective "double down and never admit guilt" is, but I don't think there's anything we can do about it as a society. Thank goodness most people don't have the guts to hold firm long enough to get away with it...
[deleted]
Re: How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?
#29I hate, immensely, how effective "double down and never admit guilt" is, but I don't think there's anything we can do about it as a society. Thank goodness most people don't have the guts to hold firm long enough to get away with it...
It's troubling when individuals do this, but I find it especially brutal that "double down and never admit guilt" is the go-to strategy for most nation states and corporations.
What is a "nation state"?
edit: Wikipedia says there are around 20 nation states. I don't know why you're picking those out specifically though.
Re: How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?
#30I'm not going to invest 40m watching the new video because I couldn't care less - but Dream hired a statistician to debunk the numbers in the first video. I can believe he's cheating but I don't consider it probable. Dream's success doesn't come from record settings, so I don't think he has any incentive to cheat. If anything, I believe more the allegations that his manhunt videos are staged, given that's the interes…
> I'm not going to invest 40m watching the new video because I couldn't care less Going by the rest of your comment, you would've learned something.
As I mentioned, I can very well believe he's cheating, I don't need to be convinced.
I can tick the box in my head which says dream is cheating - but it's not a smart move from where is standing.