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How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?

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31–40 of 98 posts

Re: How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?

#31
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's troubling when individuals do this, but I find it especially brutal that "double down and never admit guilt" is the go-to strategy for most nation states and corporations.

What is a "nation state"? edit: Wikipedia says there are around 20 nation states. I don't know why you're picking those out specifically though.

lmgtfy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nation_state

Re: How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?

#33

I hate, immensely, how effective "double down and never admit guilt" is, but I don't think there's anything we can do about it as a society. Thank goodness most people don't have the guts to hold firm long enough to get away with it...

It's troubling when individuals do this, but I find it especially brutal that "double down and never admit guilt" is the go-to strategy for most nation states and corporations.

I wouldn't limit this to nation states, seems a general approach by politicians all over the world. A certain one made it much more popular over the past four years.

Re: How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?

#34
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's troubling when individuals do this, but I find it especially brutal that "double down and never admit guilt" is the go-to strategy for most nation states and corporations.

What is a "nation state"? edit: Wikipedia says there are around 20 nation states. I don't know why you're picking those out specifically though.

The rest of the world would call "country", but American govspeak has decided to call "nation state" for some weird reason.

Re: How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?

#35
I've had other people bring this up and they framed it in this wavering "Well maybe he cheated, maybe he didn't, but it was suspicious" kind of way.

The idea that Dream was NOT playing on a rigged version of Minecraft is so astronomically unlikely as to be ludicrous. People go to prison based on far far less reasonable doubt, if be consider dream innocent we may as well let everybody out of jail, since they could be innocent too. The most likely way I can imagine he was innocent is if a third party broke into his computer, manipulated the RNG, and never told him, but regardless his speedrun record cannot stand.

I'm not really concerned with the cheating at Minecraft. I'm more concerned at how easy it is to convince people of reasonable doubt where none exists.

Re: How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?

#36
post #32

Youtube should ban cheating channels altogether. You can make over a million, get caught cheating, face no punishment, and can continue to rake it in. Fix the incentive.

But why though? If I make a YouTube channel where I break world records in various sports by using some banned equipment and people want to watch it, who says that’s bad?

I agree it’s not honest if I tell people that I’m not using equipment but YouTube can’t be verifying everything a video says. I actually do thinking they should do more manual quality control but that’s for actually harmful content.

If Microsoft and YouTube had an agreement that this sort of thing is not allowed then fine, but that’s not practical I think.

Re: How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?

#37

I'm not going to invest 40m watching the new video because I couldn't care less - but Dream hired a statistician to debunk the numbers in the first video. I can believe he's cheating but I don't consider it probable. Dream's success doesn't come from record settings, so I don't think he has any incentive to cheat. If anything, I believe more the allegations that his manhunt videos are staged, given that's the interes…

The response to the "debunking" by Dream's statistician has generally not been that favorable, and somewhat brutal.

> “Whoever wrote that is either deliberately manipulating numbers in favor of Dream or is totally clueless despite having working experience with statistics. Familiarity with the concepts is clearly there, but they are misapplied in absurd ways.”

> They also wrote that the “amateur mistakes” that appear in the document make them question the overall qualification of the (anonymous) author.”

https://www.dexerto.com/minecraft/dreams-minecraft-speedrun-...

Re: How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?

#38
Hmm, depends on the definition of speedrun.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SasazfBr5_Y there are speedruns of Diablo 1 like this, and most people wouldn't consider this a fair speedrun because the maps generated are always optimal and have the stairs down right next to the stairs up.

Re: How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?

#39
I would recommend Karl Jobst's video for those who are interested in this topic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8TlTaTHgzo

He is a very experienced speedrunner who has done a lot of videos about both speedrunning records and cheating, and as such, has a great section in his Dream video better explaining the thought process behind why top speedrunners cheat.

Re: How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?

#40
Anyone who even remotely looked at the numbers and followed the situation can tell Dream cheated. The only people I see claiming otherwise are either infatuated with his cult of personality or otherwise just don't give a shit, "It's just a kids game who cares"? I care.

I am heavily invested in speedrunning culture, but myself am mostly involved in the Halo community. I have a couple of world records of my own, and I also do routing and other technical things for the community.

Halo has its own long history of cheaters, many of whom were also pivotal founders of the community. In the wider speedrunning scene there are many examples of similar situations. I do not think that speedrunning necessarily has a higher percentage of cheaters, if you compare against other competitive sports and activities the rates would likely be comparable. But that number is far from zero.

I am working on developing TAS (Tool-Assisted Speedrun) tools for the Halo games. With the tools you can create frame-perfect recreations of gameplay that are indistinguishable from actual play.

I am honestly at a stand-still on whether I should ever publicly release a working version of the tools. The main worry is that the tools will be used to submit "fake" runs passed off as human gameplay. I have built in basic safeguards to deter the most basic cheaters, little things that you would never see as a casual player but if you know what to look for would stand out in a video. But there is always the chance a sophisticated user could reverse those changes and fly under the radar.

On the one hand it could open a floodgate of awesome content, tricks, and discoveries. On the other it could potentially completely ruin the integrity of the leaderboards. I am quite conflicted on how to continue with this project if anyone has any insight that might be helpful.

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