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The Achilles Heel of the Coronavirus

ethz.ch

41–50 of 88 posts

Re: The Achilles Heel of the Coronavirus

#42
post #40
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a level of confidence in your post which is wholly unwarranted given how complicated the human body is. There is no design committee at work here, nobody is telling any body what the bits are supposed to do. It is all evolutionary equilibriums. The point of this drug is to shut the coronavirus down to the point where it cannot restart; it is not at all out of the question that something obscure but important…

Not disagreeing on the caution angle. But, let's imagine we find, by the usual trial and error, a chemical compound whose effects are that of curing patients from the coronavirus. Trials show that it has some rare side effects, like many other drugs. How much do we need to "understand" its first, second and third (and fourth) order effects before deciding to use it?

In this case it is using an unproven mechanism that requires proof of a negative ("nothing important in the body uses this mechanism"). It cannot be done safely and quickly.

Just because someone survives 12 months and feels fine doesn't tell us anything about the safety of that mechanism. We could literally be injecting people with HIV and it'd only be showing "rare side effects" for the first 12 months as far as symptoms go.

Re: The Achilles Heel of the Coronavirus

#43
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That comment is spectaculary equally insightful, humorous and sad.

Within 20 years every newborn will be gene edited. Likely, human intelligence and world view will end up being derived from a handful of genes, thus further blinding humanity to data outside of our worldview. Imagine a world where everyone has the same level, and type, of emotional response to data, feels the same as a result of environmental stimuli, eg cold/warm/wet etc. Imagine a world where if your next door neig…

You should read Brave New World by Aldous Huxley.

Re: The Achilles Heel of the Coronavirus

#45
post #42
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not disagreeing on the caution angle. But, let's imagine we find, by the usual trial and error, a chemical compound whose effects are that of curing patients from the coronavirus. Trials show that it has some rare side effects, like many other drugs. How much do we need to "understand" its first, second and third (and fourth) order effects before deciding to use it?

In this case it is using an unproven mechanism that requires proof of a negative ("nothing important in the body uses this mechanism"). It cannot be done safely and quickly. Just because someone survives 12 months and feels fine doesn't tell us anything about the safety of that mechanism. We could literally be injecting people with HIV and it'd only be showing "rare side effects" for the first 12 months as far as sym…

I don't think that the idea is to disable it forever.

Re: The Achilles Heel of the Coronavirus

#46

For me sounds scary to disable a mechanism in all our cells that is "rarely used". Negative knowledge covers what we don't know and what we don't know that we don't know, and that rarely could be less rare than we thought, doing maybe not do frequent but anyway essential things, for all or some cells.

This is not actually a mechanism in our cells. The virus RNA folds in a particular way that interferes with how the ribosome usually works. Imagine it like a machine that takes in a an RNA strand, and you make a knot in the strand. The machine can untangle the knot with some force, but slips while it is doing this and the alignment of the strand shifts and the machine continues on a different position on the strand than before. What they propose is to target the knot with a drug, not our cells.

Re: The Achilles Heel of the Coronavirus

#47
post #45
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In this case it is using an unproven mechanism that requires proof of a negative ("nothing important in the body uses this mechanism"). It cannot be done safely and quickly. Just because someone survives 12 months and feels fine doesn't tell us anything about the safety of that mechanism. We could literally be injecting people with HIV and it'd only be showing "rare side effects" for the first 12 months as far as sym…

I don't think that the idea is to disable it forever.

If we disable oxygen to the lungs for 30 minutes then switching it back on doesn't help. The lung owner is probably dead. Some of this stuff causes permanent changes.

There is reason to be optimistic, because if for it to be really bad then there'd need to be:

* Permanent change

* Causing negative symptoms

* Which took a long time to be symptomatic

(which, coincidentally, HIV/AIDS exposure is a great example of)

Now if frameskipping supressing drugs are something we expose people to as a matter of course then very well, probably would work out great. But if this is new then it is absolutely not safe to do a mass rollout in the next decade. There are obvious risks.

Re: The Achilles Heel of the Coronavirus

#48
post #42
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not disagreeing on the caution angle. But, let's imagine we find, by the usual trial and error, a chemical compound whose effects are that of curing patients from the coronavirus. Trials show that it has some rare side effects, like many other drugs. How much do we need to "understand" its first, second and third (and fourth) order effects before deciding to use it?

In this case it is using an unproven mechanism that requires proof of a negative ("nothing important in the body uses this mechanism"). It cannot be done safely and quickly. Just because someone survives 12 months and feels fine doesn't tell us anything about the safety of that mechanism. We could literally be injecting people with HIV and it'd only be showing "rare side effects" for the first 12 months as far as sym…

my point was: in this case we know this is an unproven mechanism; because we are designing a drug that makes use of a mechanism.

But we're using empirically discovered drugs since forever, where we had no idea on how the thing even supposed to act, let alone the consequence of this action.

Re: The Achilles Heel of the Coronavirus

#49
post #48
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In this case it is using an unproven mechanism that requires proof of a negative ("nothing important in the body uses this mechanism"). It cannot be done safely and quickly. Just because someone survives 12 months and feels fine doesn't tell us anything about the safety of that mechanism. We could literally be injecting people with HIV and it'd only be showing "rare side effects" for the first 12 months as far as sym…

my point was: in this case we know this is an unproven mechanism; because we are designing a drug that makes use of a mechanism. But we're using empirically discovered drugs since forever, where we had no idea on how the thing even supposed to act, let alone the consequence of this action.

Empirical drugs also came from an age where the alternative was cutting the part that hurt and hoping for the best.

You have to do better than the alternatives, and it was easier at a time when alternatives had 60% mortality.

That said, this could be a good alternative than straight up dying for those in critical conditions. It would however tell us nothing about its safety, as people in critical condition have some deal of damage taken by the coronavirus itself and it'll be hard to control for each secondary effects.

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