There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic • Hacker News Board

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#301

Post by orblivion » Mon, May 17, 2021, 12:37 AM UTC

belltaco wrote: post #250

wernercd wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd say "Florida secured their elderly population more quickly and carefully than in New York" misses the fact that New York ACTIVELY put its elderly in harms way by requiring nursing homes take patients. If New York ONLY ignored the problem that'd be one thing... but they actively made decisions that led to a large number of deaths - and more importantly those decisions were AGAINST the CDC guidelines.

>If New York ONLY ignored the problem that'd be one thing So where would recovered nursing home residents go? Keep staying in the hospital which would mean active covid patients would die in the streets? Or the streets?

I think this is a fair question. I don't think it was anybody's intention to deliberately kill people. Even assuming the worst about people's nature, it's just not great for political careers. I imagine there was a reason for the decision however ill considered.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#302

Post by exegete » Mon, May 17, 2021, 12:37 AM UTC

orblivion wrote: post #206

wernercd wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd say "Florida secured their elderly population more quickly and carefully than in New York" misses the fact that New York ACTIVELY put its elderly in harms way by requiring nursing homes take patients. If New York ONLY ignored the problem that'd be one thing... but they actively made decisions that led to a large number of deaths - and more importantly those decisions were AGAINST the CDC guidelines.

Heh, well there you go. I wanted to avoid that point to avoid politics (per the OP's request), but yes. Also I think I heard NY wasn't the only state that did this.

NJ also did this

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#303

Post by briandear » Mon, May 17, 2021, 12:37 AM UTC

belltaco wrote: post #266

jmahyoung wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Somewhat related, on the opposite point. Elon Musk among others said the counting of deaths was manipulated upwards, with comorbidity being counted as a COVID death even when the patient had 2 or more serious health conditions already. I think there is a desire to overcount which must not be glossed over either.

>I think there is a desire to overcount which must not be glossed over either So there was overcounting, but somehow excess mortality in 2020-2021 is higher than in normal years? How? >with comorbidity being counted as a COVID death even when the patient had 2 or more serious health conditions already A high percentage of people in the US have "serious health conditions" like diabetes, obesity, high blood pressure et…

> So there was overcounting, but somehow excess mortality in 2020-2021 is higher than in normal years? How?

People dying of heart attacks because they didn’t seek timely care because of fear of going to the hospital. Medical screenings postponed. Undetected cancers. Suicides. There is a direct correlation between unemployment rates and disease. My annual physical, due in July 2020 was cancelled. How many other people’s were as well? Also one also should note increases in deaths of despair. That’s a real thing.

Excess deaths can’t be called “covid,” without proof that they were. How would else know Covid was the cause and not the flu? Are we just assuming excess deaths were Covid? The uncomfortable truth is that lockdown proponents don’t want to admit that their policies may have caused more damage than the disease from which they were claiming to protect us.

I don’t know the answer. My point is that excess deaths aren’t necessarily Covid deaths. That’s an assumption, not a fact.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#304

Post by exegete » Mon, May 17, 2021, 12:38 AM UTC

belltaco wrote: post #250

wernercd wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd say "Florida secured their elderly population more quickly and carefully than in New York" misses the fact that New York ACTIVELY put its elderly in harms way by requiring nursing homes take patients. If New York ONLY ignored the problem that'd be one thing... but they actively made decisions that led to a large number of deaths - and more importantly those decisions were AGAINST the CDC guidelines.

>If New York ONLY ignored the problem that'd be one thing So where would recovered nursing home residents go? Keep staying in the hospital which would mean active covid patients would die in the streets? Or the streets?

In hindsight to one of the many unused field hospitals? But at the time we didn’t know how effective the mitigations were going to be and fully expected the field hospitals to be full

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#305

Post by belltaco » Mon, May 17, 2021, 12:39 AM UTC

claytongulick wrote: post #180

msbarnett wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

17% excess mortality (and that’s assuming this 1% baseline we pulled out of the air, remember) doesn’t mean that the pandemic is only responsible for those excess deaths – a bunch of people who might have otherwise been expected to get hit by a car worked from home all year, or died from COVID instead, etc. So the pandemic is responsible for the 17% (in this scenario) uplift above baseline plus an unknown portion of…

Apparently suicides and deaths from starvation were also up significantly. It will indeed be interesting to see how the distribution of deaths plays out.

How is it "apparent"? Suicides have been down https://www.healthline.com/health-news/why-suicides-have-dec...

Where are you getting your information from.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#306

Post by wpietri » Mon, May 17, 2021, 12:40 AM UTC

alerighi wrote: post #229

eyelidlessness wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can accept that the initial worst case mortality claims turned out to be too high. But I can’t accept this claim: > a disease that, for the vast majority who get it, just makes it so you can't taste or smell anything for a few days along with fatigue and flu-like symptoms People who’ve been sick and survived, even with minimal symptoms, are experiencing long term health issues. It’s one thing to recognize that the…

In very small minority of cases. I know a lot (at least 20) people that got the virus, and all of them are fine today, as they were before catching the virus. Of course people that got really sick and went to the hospital, it's different. But most of them were either old or already had some illness. In the end we are making all this effort to stop a virus, while we sell (with profit) cigarettes that makes each years…

This arguing from anecdote when there are stats available is just bizarre. And you talk like we as a society haven't been working to limit tobacco addition for decades. People care about that and people care about epidemic deaths.

If you don't think death is a big deal, you are welcome to live your life courting it. But I don't get the performative lack of empathy for those dead, those deeply sick, and the living who have to deal with both the rest of their lives.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#307

Post by Panino » Mon, May 17, 2021, 12:40 AM UTC

orblivion wrote: post #199

PeterisP wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For me "countries that did really well" is mainly places like Singapore and Taiwan and South Korea, which got the virus earlier than USA and Europe but took it seriously from the very start.

Okay, if they actually got the virus that early, then these countries are the answer to my question. However... at least for Taiwan that doesn't feel like it adds up: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/taiwan They've had fewer than 1700 cases, and that's including a recent massive outbreak. They peaked on March 26th 7-day average with 21 cases a day. Granted, the US took maybe a couple more weeks to ra…

If you travel to Taiwan, even as a Taiwanese citizen, you must stay in an official quarantine hotel for 14 days. You are not asked to do this - you are taken to the hotel by an official quarantine taxi driver and there are records of all this. You are not allowed to leave the hotel for any reason - food is delivered to your door 3x per day, and you can ask for certain things. My sister in law did this. That is just one of over 100 strategies employed by Taiwan to reduce virus spread.

The current Vice President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, has a Master's degree in Public Health from Harvard. The previous VP, Chen Chien-jen, has a Master's degree in Public Health from National Taiwan University. Taiwan takes public health seriously, especially after the original SARS experience.

Nobody in Taiwan thinks the virus is a "scam" or that masks are a "tool of oppression." Even before the pandemic masks were totally common. There is complete public buy-in on masks without even having to be asked. Some of my friends work in a clinic in Taipei so I hear updates. I was also in Taiwan last year for a month. The difference in attitude between the US and Taiwan is startling. If the US had acted like Taiwan, instead of acting in a way that was indistinguishable from sabotage, we'd have a lot fewer deaths and would have avoided a recession.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#308

Post by wpietri » Mon, May 17, 2021, 12:43 AM UTC

dragonwriter wrote: post #74

throwaway3699 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're getting downvoted but I do believe you're correct. I'm a healthy 21 year old, please govt., give my vaccine to other countries. I will take it if offered, but I'd prefer to give it to those who really need it all things considered. Let me get the vaccine when others are safe.

Your being vaccinated is important for protecting those who can’t be vaccinated. Plus, what’s most likely to drive governments to exports of vaccines is hitting/exceeding their own vaccination targets. The most effective way to lobby for exports is to get vaccinated.

Exactly. I have a friend whose kids all share a condition where vaccines don't work well on them. For them to be safe, we need herd immunity. Successful elimination of the disease here makes it easier to turn toward helping others.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#309

Post by danenania » Mon, May 17, 2021, 12:43 AM UTC

pasabagi wrote: post #258

danenania wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the intentions were good, but it's also probably true that public health officials have been reluctant to admit when there just wasn't much they could do about the situation that would make a major difference, save for employing totalitarian enforcement measures that no one wanted. Masks in public are not all that burdensome, so imo the mandates were reasonable regardless of the actual impact, but I wish they…

> wasn't much they could do about the situation that would make a major difference, save for employing totalitarian enforcement measures that no one wanted. Are you insane? There are tons of countries that are not totalitarian, with big land borders, that have done far better than the US. There are countries (SK, Japan) with tiny numbers of cases. There are obviously thousands of things that could have been different…

I agree about Trump and federal messaging being terrible, but CA’s messaging was strong from the beginning. Empirically, it doesn’t appear to have made a significant difference compared to other states.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#310

Post by sam_4675 » Mon, May 17, 2021, 12:44 AM UTC

Spooky23 wrote: post #244

chmod600 wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are schools a major source of transmission for teachers and staff?

Yes. Workplaces with lots of contact always are. In Nov-Feb, I was losing 40-60 employees a week to infection or quarantine. Mostly people in essential IT support positions My sons school was open most of the year, but shutdown for a month due to teacher quarantines.

Schools are different than a business setting. Young children have less chance of getting it and less of spreading it. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/pediatric-hcp....