TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter • Hacker News Board

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#441

Post by epistasis » Sat, May 15, 2021, 4:10 PM UTC

neonological wrote: post #439

epistasis wrote: post #425

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I agree with this. I should have added the qualifier "soon" to my prediction of California's future.

No. Detroit became a wasteland well within our lifetimes. Whether this happens for California soon or not soon is well outside the realm of "preposterous." Your post is not just off by a word, it is entirely off.

I think that our fundamental disagreement comes down to whether California is currently in that downturn. I would say no, and if I understand your position, you would say yes. Is that a fair assessment?

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#442

Post by Rapzid » Sat, May 15, 2021, 4:15 PM UTC

foepys wrote: post #300

TMWNN wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The EU exported over 200 million doses. If the EU wanted, they could've issued an export ban like the US did. Please stop repeating this lie. There is and has never been a US vaccine export ban, and the US has not seized vaccines meant for other countries. The Trump administration last year signed gigantic contracts for every planned vaccine (Operation Warp Speed), because no one knew which ones would work. Like, en…

Then how do you explain this? https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/... It doesn't matter if exports are restricted because of "America first" or because of an outright ban. The result is exactly the same. The UK is also arguing that they don't restrict exports but when asked how many doses were exported, they cite national security concerns and refuse to answer. Whatever that means.

How many US manufactured doses have been exported?

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#443

Post by powerapple » Sat, May 15, 2021, 4:16 PM UTC

elefanten wrote: post #404

powerapple wrote: post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China does not want to take over Taiwan other than not having a non-US-ally close at door. Previous government of Taiwan had good relationship with China, although China didn't allow them to join WHO as an independent country, it did permit it to join WHA and WHO as a non-member state. China's trade deficit with Taiwan is tens of billions dollars every year. It is just that US's strategy of containing China works rea…

This is wholly contradicted by decades of Chinese statecraft and diplomacy, and more recently and directly by Xi’s repeated, insistent rhetoric about unification. They badly want Taiwan. Not at any cost, but certainly at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives —- especially those of the ‘ungrateful’ and ‘unruly’ Taiwanese. The existence of trade between them in no way contradicts those desires.

You are right about the situation now. I was mainly talking about how did we end up here.

The "Taiwan is part of China" has been in the text book of China since the People's Republic of China founded. If you looked at diplomacy, one thing China did previously was to maintain the status quo to a degree that it has refused to take the few countries which recognize Taiwan in order to maintain the friendly relationship.

I have to say that now things changed. That's why it has become a hotspot for a potential war zone between US and China.

As for TSMC, I believe the decision should be attributed to Biden's government's push for having production capacity in the US rather than a pure business decision.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#444

Post by throwaway4good » Sat, May 15, 2021, 4:20 PM UTC

will4274 wrote: post #440

throwaway4good wrote: post #435

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you dig deeper into it you would probably find that this is not a black and white issue at all. After all there is reason why it is called "Republic of China".

> After all there is reason why it is called "Republic of China". Surely one of those reasons is that if they changed the name, the "People's Republic of China" would invade?

It is because the founders of the nation saw themselves as Chinese and the rightful rulers of all of China.

If you are Taiwanese and you trace family back to before 1949, your family is likely to be somewhere in China.

As for the business community, most of Taiwan’s trade is with the mainland. Probably explains why it is more sympathetic.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#445

Post by SkyMarshal » Sat, May 15, 2021, 4:26 PM UTC

tibbydudeza wrote: post #374

nabla9 wrote: post #282

>TSMC chairman and founder Morris Chang, warned last month of higher operating costs and a thin talent pool for the U.S. plans in a rare public speech attended by Wei and chairman Mark Liu. >"In the United States, the level of professional dedication is no match to that in Taiwan, at least for engineers," Chang said. He warned that "short-term subsidy can't make up for long-term operational disadvantage."

HB-1 visa's for about 50,000 Taiwanese to staff the new TMSC plant in Arizona - guess how well that is going to play with the GOP.

It’s within the realm of possibility that the GOP might make an exception for this, since they’re also concerned about supply chains of defense and security-critical components, and about keeping the US’s lead in semiconductors.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#446

Post by jabberwookie » Sat, May 15, 2021, 4:33 PM UTC

giardini wrote: post #272

kragen wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> shortwave radios? With no electrical power, no batteries? Nuclear retaliation might take 20 minutes. The diesel UPS will last that long. What would the aftermath look like months or years later, though? Big coal power plants might be targeted, but most solar panels will continue to work; those can run shortwave radios for decades, giving you transcontinental and intercontinental logistical coordination capabilities…

Your thinking has many curious gaps! e.g., I fail to see how "shortwave radios" would be particularly useful for the 20 minutes of "nuclear retaliation", Bitcoin transactions require networked computers which, again, won't be around w/o power/batteries, a working network, etc. Implementing the Haber-Bosch process requires very sophisticated engineering, machining and careful operation. Lots of trial and error is invo…

“Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference.”

― Mark Twain

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#447

Post by bogomipz » Sat, May 15, 2021, 4:34 PM UTC

ChuckMcM wrote: post #157

Geopolitically this makes a lot of sense. Will be interesting to see how China reacts as it moves forward. If Intel is serious this time about letting third parties into their fabs then it could be quite the reversal of fortune. However, as I've said in the past Intel is most likely to do this with "alternate" process streams, in order to not expose their full capabilities to competitors. High hopes but low expectati…

>"If Intel is serious this time about letting third parties into their fabs then it could be quite the reversal of fortune."

Interesting. I'm not familiar with this bit of Intel history. When were these exactly? It sounds like multiple occasions? Whose fortune would be reversed, Intel's relative to TSMC?

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#448

Post by neonological » Sat, May 15, 2021, 4:34 PM UTC

epistasis wrote: post #441

neonological wrote: post #439

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. Detroit became a wasteland well within our lifetimes. Whether this happens for California soon or not soon is well outside the realm of "preposterous." Your post is not just off by a word, it is entirely off.

I think that our fundamental disagreement comes down to whether California is currently in that downturn. I would say no, and if I understand your position, you would say yes. Is that a fair assessment?

No it is not. Why don't you read my posts again.

California is currently trending downward in certain metrics related to economics but this is entirely different from being in an "economic downturn."

California going into an economic downturn in the future is a 100 percent possibility. CA and the entire united States goes through economic downturns about roughly every decade and this has been going on for centuries. The economy is proovably cyclical.

Either way what Im saying is that the current metrics of migration show that California MAY become an economic waste land like Detroit. This is much worse than a economic downturn. Keyword: may, meaning not outside the realm of fantasy and also not a guarantee, but very very possible.

What is absolutely clear though is that if these metrics of negative brain drain continues then absolutely CA will become an economic wasteland.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#449

Post by neonological » Sat, May 15, 2021, 4:45 PM UTC

epistasis wrote: post #434

neonological wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I don't understand is how you think world traveler gives any credit or support for your stance. First the stronger point is made through evidence and the weaker point is made through reputation. Second of all, a "world traveler" is not really much of a reputable status that lends any additional weight to your thesis. California is rich. But California is trending down economically. This has been increasing for a…

> But California is trending down economically. This has been increasing for a decade and accelerated due to covid. Is there some sort of higher-information content article or video you can post than that YouTube video? It's a slow roll out of rather basic history with some unsubstantiated claims thrown in in the first 6 minutes, and I'm not going to waste any more time on that. Particularly when it's talking about a…

Why don't you watch that video again with less biased eyes. The video never ever even mentioned California was in an economic downturn. It said California was going through economic turbulence and called it a bump in the road in the first few minutes.

I recommend you watch that video despite it's length. It's much more digestible then raw statistical data and scientific papers. The YouTuber is an economist and his views are spot on. Specifically the part on hotel California is very very accurate.

The guy even mentions that CA has one of the largest economies in the world if it was classified as a country, so he's not actually attacking your team here.

You keep making the same mistake on thinking that the video and I are making the claim that California is in an economic downturn. Nobody ever said California is in an economic downturn. If anything California could be in an economic bubble. Keyword: could.

California is not a perfect paradise. That would be a delusional view. We can agree that California is definitely a successful economy. To think that successful economies are infallible would be an equally delusional view.

I also suggest you try to get away from this team California mentality. You may live in the state you may love the state you may have been born in the state like I was. But your analysis of what's happening must remain impartial. That means analyzing the possibility of economic apocalypse rather then closing all YouTube videos that even mention anything negative about California.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#450

Post by epistasis » Sat, May 15, 2021, 4:48 PM UTC

neonological wrote: post #448

epistasis wrote: post #441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that our fundamental disagreement comes down to whether California is currently in that downturn. I would say no, and if I understand your position, you would say yes. Is that a fair assessment?

No it is not. Why don't you read my posts again. California is currently trending downward in certain metrics related to economics but this is entirely different from being in an "economic downturn." California going into an economic downturn in the future is a 100 percent possibility. CA and the entire united States goes through economic downturns about roughly every decade and this has been going on for centuries.…

I have a feeling that further discussion will not be productive, as your other posts do not contain hints of what you say in this comment, and this comment is a big change in what you were saying before in comments.

I'm not sure why California's in-migration of the highly educated with high incomes, and out-migration of less educated folks counts as a brain drain. I'm not sure why you insist on an economic downturn in California in several comments, but now say that's not the case.

Just letting you know why I'm stopping interaction.