Live data from Hacker News

TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

reuters.com

221–230 of 511 posts

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#221
post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The PRC is estimated to have some 350 warheads, enough to land one or two on every US city of 100k population or more, killing about a third of the population. That's not nearly enough to prevent a retaliatory strike, but it seems like a fairly effective deterrent, and Intel's and TI's US fabs would definitely be out of commission, even if they weren't targets, until after the Mexican Army or whoever moved in to mop…

China was ruled by rival warlords far more recently than 2,500 years ago, most recently from about 1916 to 1928 (officially, though some warlords continued to hold sway in isolated regions well into the 1940s). Strong central government collapses -> country fractures into regions controlled by warlords -> new strong central government arises. China has seen that movie many, many times in its history.

It's not clear to me that this is an insightful framing of the situation. Certainly it is true that in China, as anywhere else, the degree of political autonomy accorded to regions of different sizes varies; at times governance is more centralized, and at other times it is less so. Borders shift over time, as do the particular powers accorded to local leaders.

Similarly, when the strong central government in Mycenaean Greece collapsed in the Bronze Age Collapse, Greece fractured into "regions controlled by warlords." Then one of those warlords, Alexandros, conquered Persia, most of the Mediterranean, Turkey, much what is now Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, and part of India. Then he died, and his empire fractured into regions controlled by warlords. Then the Roman Republic conquered most of the same region (not coincidentally becoming a Greek-speaking empire in the process), plus part of Britain and most of Western Europe, and fractured into regions controlled by warlords. Then the Holy Roman Empire arose and reunified a lot of those regions, at least in name (arguably, much like the later Zhou) and then fractured into regions controlled by warlords. Then Napoleon arose and reunified a lot of those regions, including parts of Russia that Rome and the Holy Roman Empire had never reached, but that didn't last long, and the warlords retook control from Napoleon pretty quickly. Even the Bourbons got restored! Then Hitler arose and reunified a lot of those regions, but his "country" fractured into regions controlled by warlords even more quickly. Then the European Union arose and reunified a lot of those same regions again by winning the loyalty of local warlords like Charles de Gaulle, Paul-Henri Spaak, and Joseph Luns. Or, alternatively, NATO did. Or the UN.

And you can tell a similar story about Russia.

You could reasonably object that NATO, the EU, the UN, and the Holy Roman Empire aren't or weren't "strong central governments" as we know them today. Well, they weren't Westphalian states, it's true. But neither were any of the reigns of Chinese emperors we're talking about here. And, although if you go to overseas Chinese school you might be taught a simple linear succession of dynasties, the truth in China is much more complicated, just as the truth about western Europe is much more complicated than my linear version above.

What does that have to do with what Russia would do if the nukes started flying? Does the collapse of the Kievan Rus' in the face of the Golden Horde mean that Russia's command structure would collapse in the 20 minutes needed to launch a counterattack? The Scythian king Ateas, from what is now Russia, fought in his dotage and fell in battle with Philip of Macedon in 00339 BCE, and his empire collapsed. Should we thus infer that his successor Vladimir Putin will remain in power too long and make Russia weak, easy pickings for a new conqueror?

Such inferences are obviously ridiculous.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interestingly this came as a loss to Washington, where there is already a significant fab owned by TSMC called WaferTech. Their facility is on the WA side of the Portland suburbs. Many felt WA was in the running because of the talent already there. This caused concerns that the future of the WaferTech fab facility is dimmer than before, since it probably makes less sense to pump billions more into it in the future.

Also surprising is that TSMC was recently hit by water shortages due to a drought in Taiwan. Arizona isn't exactly drought resistant, yet they built there instead of rainy Washington.

There was a few hours long blackout in Taiwan today night, that was way beyond the time UPSes can last.

Expect last 6 month worth of wafers in production to go down the drain in fabs which relied on battery backups only.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#223
post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EU is loosely coupled peace union with a lot of sovereignty left to the individual states. If I remember correctly, ones Rupert Murdoch famously said that it’s impossible to find a phone number to call. So, It’s probably not up to the EU to care about automotive, that must be Germany. France and Spain likely cares about other things and no one cares about cutting edge chips. EU can push from the top by easing state a…

> If I remember correctly, ones Rupert Murdoch famously said that it’s impossible to find a phone number to call. Do the HN rules of assuming good faith apply to him as well? /s https://europa.eu/european-union/contact/call-us_en Please don't signal boost easily falsifiable claims like this. The function of it is to sow division and prevent proper nuanced discussion.

R.M. probably meant it more as a figure of speech.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#224

> EU industry commissioner Thierry Breton, who has championed the Eurofab idea, also spoke with TSMC's Europe president, Maria Marced, last month. Although Breton publicly called the TSMC talk a "good exchange," a second person familiar with the matter said the TSMC talks in Europe have gone "very poorly." Sometimes it seems that EU politicians want to be seen as cutting a hard bargain with industry that they actuall…

The EU exported over 200 million doses. If the EU wanted, they could've issued an export ban like the US did. People tend to forget that 3* (with Curevac soon to be 4) of the most effective vaccines are actually from the EU.

* not counting Sputnik V as study results currently seem not very reliable, although that might only be because Russia isn't particularly interested in the EU market

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#225
That's a very phaustian bargain US gets.

The astronomical sum on the cheque to the TSMC, means they can finally stomp Samsung — their only competitor in the leading node.

US will be getting their Xilinx FPGAs for F35, but be left with no competition for the leading edge semi manufacturing, which is way worse long term.

People grew forgetful of the time when mainstream CPUs sold at >$1000

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#226
post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In the United States, the level of professional dedication is no match to that in Taiwan, at least for engineers What does this even mean? That US engineers expect benefits and work-life balance?

It could be that. Or, for example, California Teachers angrily denouncing accelerated math classes as being immoral. Or perhaps a combination of the two.

I wouldn't call it angrily, but yes, a big focus has been on equity and eliminating different levels for students.

Some elements make sense or I think would do little harm. I was high achieving in math - but the push to calc in high school does feel overdone I think - it's often a shallow understanding.

They are very focused particularly on issues like 30%+ of Asian students and only 3-4% of other minorities being in advanced tracks of math education so they are trying to reduce those.

Some neat ideas around doing more open ended tasks (cool!) in make that integration work better.

That said, will likely be some tough corners because there are can be some pretty significant skill differences across a student body in a given grade. They are going to try and do more group work, and also one of the 5 new principles is to teach towards social justice in math as well as other areas which may provide more opportunity for engagement by all students.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#227
post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EU is loosely coupled peace union with a lot of sovereignty left to the individual states. If I remember correctly, ones Rupert Murdoch famously said that it’s impossible to find a phone number to call. So, It’s probably not up to the EU to care about automotive, that must be Germany. France and Spain likely cares about other things and no one cares about cutting edge chips. EU can push from the top by easing state a…

> If I remember correctly, ones Rupert Murdoch famously said that it’s impossible to find a phone number to call. Do the HN rules of assuming good faith apply to him as well? /s https://europa.eu/european-union/contact/call-us_en Please don't signal boost easily falsifiable claims like this. The function of it is to sow division and prevent proper nuanced discussion.

>Please don't signal boost easily falsifiable claims like this. The function of it is to sow division and prevent proper nuanced discussion.

The phone numbers on that page is a hotline for general questions. It is absolutely not the same thing as the point mrtksn's Murdoch quote mentioned.

A media magnate like Murdoch has the phone number to the White House central switchboard and can get the President on the phone. Maybe not immediately, but probably within an hour. He might even have the President's personal cell phone number.[1] In turn, the President can either do what Murdoch requests, or transfer him to someone who can.

What is the EU equivalent to this sort of access? Murdoch can probably get Ursula von der Leyen on the phone more easily than he can Biden. But is she the right person for what Murdoch needs? Even if she is, her position certainly does not have the breadth of authority, or depth of command structures, that a US president can call upon. If Murdoch learns from a reliable source that Russia is going to full-on invade western Ukraine tomorrow, would calling von der Leyen to warn her be of any particular help for Ukraine, or for Europe? No; calling Biden, Merkel, Macron, and Johnson would be more effective.[2] That's the sort of thing Murdoch meant.

[1] Trump is well known for giving his cell phone number out and personally responding to calls, both before and after his election

[2] In this scenario, whether the UK is a EU member or not does not matter

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#228
"European chip and auto companies, for their part, are mostly lined up against the idea. They would prefer subsidies for the older-generation chips that are heavily used by car manufacturers and are in short supply.

Many of TSMC's most lucrative customers, such as Apple, are U.S.-based, while its European customer base is made up of mostly of automakers buying less-advanced chips."

Oh boy... This is exactly why EU will always stay third behind USA, China...

"We don't need e mobility, we have the best combustion engines!" Tesla owns VW now.

"We don't need Apple like chips"

This hurts. Apple and rest does many things differently and way better than EU. We should learn from them.

Or do I miss something?

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If I remember correctly, ones Rupert Murdoch famously said that it’s impossible to find a phone number to call. Do the HN rules of assuming good faith apply to him as well? /s https://europa.eu/european-union/contact/call-us_en Please don't signal boost easily falsifiable claims like this. The function of it is to sow division and prevent proper nuanced discussion.

R.M. probably meant it more as a figure of speech.

Yeah, that's nice cover.

This is a meme that is meant to heighten emotions in politics. It's small but intentionally destructive and each repetition of one of these little demonizations further prevents cool-headed nuanced discourse.

It's death by a thousand cuts for our society.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#230
post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It could be that. Or, for example, California Teachers angrily denouncing accelerated math classes as being immoral. Or perhaps a combination of the two.

I wouldn't call it angrily, but yes, a big focus has been on equity and eliminating different levels for students. Some elements make sense or I think would do little harm. I was high achieving in math - but the push to calc in high school does feel overdone I think - it's often a shallow understanding. They are very focused particularly on issues like 30%+ of Asian students and only 3-4% of other minorities being in…

They are pretty angry that asians are outperforming other groups, and the intention is to suppress the accomplishments of groups they feel are doing "too well", literally making Harrison Bergeron a real thing. In terms of calculus in high school being too overdone it's not too early at all for smart students. Many countries have a gymnasium style system and you can do much more than calculus in high school. In fact, this was even done in the U.S. in the past. Russia, Germany, France, and most Eastern European countries have math gymnasiums where you learn much more than calculus. The graduates of these are the ones that go on to be world changing mathematicians and scientists.

The problem is that the racial distribution of those students who are good at math upsets the blank slate world-view of the teachers, and the very notion that some students are smarter than others and that these discrepencies have consistent ethnic patterns fills them with a lot of rage due to their politics/religion. Trying to infuse the same dysfunctional beliefs into the math curriculum will serve to spread what crippled the teachers' analytical abilities to the students. That type of denial isn't going to help train engineers either. Bridges can't fall down, processors need to work, theorems require proofs. These are objective things that students need to master, not comfortable delusions about everyone having the same abilities in every subject.

So you can only deny reality for so long before you start losing your competitive edge and this affects your ability to be a leader in chip production. By suppressing opportunities for groups they don't like, the teachers are preventing students from achieving their potential. Wealthy parents will withdraw their students and either home school if they have the education to do it, or place them in private schools that try to maximize the potential of every student, regardless of whether those outcomes are racially balanced. But that's a minority, the middle class and poor will be denied a good education.

Taiwan and China are under no such illusions. They are happy to identify smart students and give them challenging topics in order to help them achieve their potential, rather than trying to slow down the best students in order to pretend that everyone has the same talent for math.

Post reply on HN