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TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

reuters.com

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Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#161

Post by adrianN »

myrandomcomment wrote: post #145
rapsey wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US defence of Taiwan is unfortunately just posturing. Should China commit to taking Taiwan they will do it. US military simulations have confirmed this again and again. Chinese military capability is strong enough to overwhelm the US Taiwan forces.

No it is not, which is the reason it will end up in nukes. There are a ton of well researched papers on this. Taiwan is well dug in and any invasion perpetration would be seen months in advance. To be clear, if the USA defense of Taiwan leads to the extinction of the human race, so be it. We should have destroyed nazi germany in 1939. Fīat jūstitia ruat cælum. We are not worthy to survive if we do not defend democrac…

As someone born after WW2, in Germany, I'm pretty glad that people back then didn't think like you. What's the point of defending democracy if there is nothing but a radioactive wasteland in which to set up free elections?

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#162

Post by Turing_Machine »

epistasis wrote: post #128
neonological wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>California is extremely entrepreneur-friendly, and have absolutely massive amounts of business compare to Arizona or Texas. I don't know if you've been following the news lately of a bunch of companies moving OUT of California to Texas. One of these people is Elon Musk. And guess what? I have a source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ez90rXhMWjE I'm not saying California is wrong. Far from it. They're right. These l…

The idea that California could become an economic wasteland is absolutely preposterous. It does have its problems: costs are high and there's extreme inequality (because of the nation's worst land taxation and land use policies combined, read your Henry George folks). But these problems are because of its extreme prosperity and economic potential, not because there is any risk of that economic powerhouse stopping. Th…

> The idea that California could become an economic wasteland is absolutely preposterous.

At one time people would have said the same about the Rust Belt.

Times change.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#163

Post by systemvoltage »

totalZero wrote: post #146
systemvoltage wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Our memory is fading. Just 5-6 years ago, Intel fabs had the best process technology and TSMC was behind. No one could have guessed what the state of the world would be in 2021 with any significant certainty. Who knows what would happen in another 5 years? We are so myopic when it comes to the bias towards the status quo. We give more weight to what the current situation is and then extrapolate that the future will b…

Your last sentence is exactly on point. What's sad is that we spend far more on naval power projection than on detours around obvious risks to prosperity and peace, such as the semiconductor supply chain. We are barely spending 50 billion dollars on domestic semiconductor fabrication in the upcoming legislation, despite acknowledging that the economic costs of the semiconductor shortage are far greater. Contrast that…

Indeed, semiconductor industry investment is a drop in a bucket compared to 10 years of war. Not to mention, after a war, there still exists a dependency.

It's funny how most of the semiconductor topics lead to war discussions but no one talks about outcompeting Taiwan. It's doable if there is will and resources (I am a Fab engineer). IMO the best way to move forward.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#164

Post by rsj_hn »

nwiswell wrote: post #153
rsj_hn wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the article, Taiwan's estimation of the U.S. talent base is rather low: '"TSMC chairman and founder Morris Chang warned last month of higher operating costs and a thin talent pool for the U.S. plans in a rare public speech attended by Wei and chairman Mark Liu. "In the United States, the level of professional dedication is no match to that in Taiwan, at least for engineers," Chang said. He warned that "short-ter…

> In the United States, the level of professional dedication is no match to that in Taiwan, at least for engineers What does this even mean? That US engineers expect benefits and work-life balance?

It could be that. Or, for example, California Teachers angrily denouncing accelerated math classes as being immoral. Or perhaps a combination of the two.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#165

Post by vkou »

MangoCoffee wrote: post #158

its always interesting to read the comments on HN regarding China/Taiwan situation. Chinese invasion (Taiwan) threat is always there. It didn't stop when Nixon visit China and it didn't stop when American abandoned Taiwan to have a business relationship with China for more than 40 years. the threat is so old now. there are some running jokes in Taiwan like "China threatening to invade Taiwan since my grandpa is alive…

I am generally on the 'wrong' side of these conversations on HN, but...

> did South Korea stop everything whenever North Korea did a Nuke test?

I believe the two threats are not remotely equivalent. In a world of MAD, nuclear weapons are only a credible defensive deterrent, because offensive use of them is suicide. The US would start a nuclear war, in response to a North Korean first-strike.

Whereas with respect to China and Taiwan, nobody, including the US is going to start a nuclear war over that aggression, and nobody, including the US is going to start a conventional war against a major nuclear power.

If you have any doubts on this - consider that you are alive to read this post... Because the US did not start either a nuclear, or a conventional-with-good-possibility-of-turning-nuclear war over Russian adventures in Crimea.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#166

Post by kragen »

musingsole wrote: post #160
kragen wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The PRC is estimated to have some 350 warheads, enough to land one or two on every US city of 100k population or more, killing about a third of the population. That's not nearly enough to prevent a retaliatory strike, but it seems like a fairly effective deterrent, and Intel's and TI's US fabs would definitely be out of commission, even if they weren't targets, until after the Mexican Army or whoever moved in to mop…

You cripple your argument with your own. The US can't return to a 2500 year old structure; it's not old enough to have that history. Which is a strength. China has further to fall than the US. That old history is still history. The US would cobble together into something more reminiscent of something later into history by virtue of a shorter memory span...whether or not that is beneficial in this hypothetical future…

The People's Republic of China isn't 2500 years old either. Your metaphors about strength, falling, shoe repair, structures, and crippling have no predictive power, being only metaphors.

It's true that people in the US don't know what happened there 2500 years ago, but people in China don't know much of what happened there 2500 years ago either (partly the fault of Qin Shi Huang), and in either place, there's no particular reason to expect it to happen again, other than metaphorical fuzzy thinking about falling and cobbling, and the general tendency of human societies to do things that human societies can do instead of things they can't.

Even if post-apocalyptic China were seized with a historical-reenactment fervor and Sima Qian were the new bestselling author, the material conditions of production today are quite different from those that prevailed in the Bronze Age. People won't suddenly forget how to use their shortwave radios, smelt iron, and make gunpowder just because it's radioactive outside. At least some surveillance satellites will surely remain in orbit. Semiarticulated trucks with tank escorts could still carry materiel to battlefronts orders of magnitude faster than porters with wheelbarrows or even the Grand Canal. The whole scenario is just nonsense.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#167

Post by jeeeb »

icelancer wrote: post #150
jeeeb wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Australia has some of the lowest import / export tariffs in the world. I.E. they’re generally zero or close to.

Tariffs, yes. Taxes, no. Simply comparing the cost of technology-based goods between AUS and USA/CAN - or worse, digital-based items - shows why Australia is not an attractive place for technology companies.

I don’t know of any particular taxes on technology goods in Australia. There’s 10% GST but that’s paid by consumers. For companies GST on inputs is all deductible.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#168

Post by myrandomcomment »

rapsey wrote: post #148
myrandomcomment wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No it is not, which is the reason it will end up in nukes. There are a ton of well researched papers on this. Taiwan is well dug in and any invasion perpetration would be seen months in advance. To be clear, if the USA defense of Taiwan leads to the extinction of the human race, so be it. We should have destroyed nazi germany in 1939. Fīat jūstitia ruat cælum. We are not worthy to survive if we do not defend democrac…

https://news.yahoo.com/were-going-to-lose-fast-us-air-force-...

If you Google "Taiwan hard to invade" or the like you will get more educated reads on this. The necessary preparations on the Chinese part are well seen on satellites. China would 100% win at a bloody cost without a US involvement. With, they would loose. This is today, without China coming to be on level with the US military. Over time they will catch up. Today with US involvement China would loose. The facts on the ground prove this, otherwise why have they not done it yet?

"Carefully compare the opposing army with your own, so that you may know where strength is superabundant and where it is deficient." Sun Tzu

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#169

Post by m00x »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #157

Geopolitically this makes a lot of sense. Will be interesting to see how China reacts as it moves forward. If Intel is serious this time about letting third parties into their fabs then it could be quite the reversal of fortune. However, as I've said in the past Intel is most likely to do this with "alternate" process streams, in order to not expose their full capabilities to competitors. High hopes but low expectati…

Why China? Most of the major chip fabs aren't made in China. They're mostly made in Taiwan, South Korea and the US. Unless we're strictly talking about TSMC, which does have 2/18 fabs in China.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#170

Post by Turing_Machine »

kragen wrote: post #151
giardini wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you really believe China has enough nukes to take out most of the USA's infrastructure? Fab facilities would be waaaay down the list of targets. China's goal has been to maintain a nuclear deterrent (make it not worthwhile to strike China) rather than an offensive capability. if nukes flew then China would likely fragment into many separate countries: its centralized command structure would be destroyed and local…

The PRC is estimated to have some 350 warheads, enough to land one or two on every US city of 100k population or more, killing about a third of the population. That's not nearly enough to prevent a retaliatory strike, but it seems like a fairly effective deterrent, and Intel's and TI's US fabs would definitely be out of commission, even if they weren't targets, until after the Mexican Army or whoever moved in to mop…

China was ruled by rival warlords far more recently than 2,500 years ago, most recently from about 1916 to 1928 (officially, though some warlords continued to hold sway in isolated regions well into the 1940s).

Strong central government collapses -> country fractures into regions controlled by warlords -> new strong central government arises. China has seen that movie many, many times in its history.

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