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TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

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Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#91
post #28

I've been thinking about what would happen if there's an actual military crisis between China and Taiwan. I wonder if the United States would allow (and aid with) unlimited immigration from Taiwan for educated specialists, in an attempt to capture/retain as much skills and knowledge as possible.

The TSMC chip bottleneck makes it a red line for the US and China knows that. They're patient, no need to do it in a time period when it guarantees maximum blowback.

On the other hand, the US has been aggressively escalating the TSMC conflict with targeted attacks on the PRC's nuclear and supercomputing capabilities: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/04/us-adds-chinese-... and semiconductor fabrication has been a key technology for several five-year plans. So the PRC's patience may run out sooner than you think.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#92
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Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#93
post #28

I've been thinking about what would happen if there's an actual military crisis between China and Taiwan. I wonder if the United States would allow (and aid with) unlimited immigration from Taiwan for educated specialists, in an attempt to capture/retain as much skills and knowledge as possible.

In the event of a full-blown war the United States could just take possession and control of all foreign-owned fabs in the US.

The PRC is a nuclear power. In the event of a full-blown war there will be no fabs in the US, foreign-owned or otherwise.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#94

The USA is also willing to defend Taiwan and currently the US has carrier groups in the south China sea. This suggests that the idea of building chips in the US may be a diplomatic courtesy and arguably an incentive.

Building chips in the US is definitely a disincentive. There is much less of a reason to protect Taiwan if this industry will be safe no matter what in the US with the required expertise accessible no matter the outcome of the invasion.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#95
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Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#96

I’m dismayed that Australia isn’t doing more to foster local fabs.

Australia is (by geography) an Asian country with easy access to China/Taiwan/Korea & Japan.

It makes a more sense to let the experts to the north build fabs and for Australia to focus on things we're already good at. Like biotech.

If we're going to invest to break in to new fields, it should be energy technologies (solar, nuclear, etc) and transportation technologies.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#97
post #86

I’m dismayed that Australia isn’t doing more to foster local fabs.

Australia is a relatively small market located far from global supply chains with relatively high energy, capital and labour costs. I think we need to be selective about which industries we promote, especially if the industry will only be viable with large government subsidies.

> Australia is a relatively small market located far from global supply chains

Australia is also the world's second largest exporter of rare earth metals. It does, in fact, have a considerable part of the raw materials required for fabrication already being extracted in-nation.

It would not take much for Australia to insert itself into that global supply chain, as a more reliable and stable political environment than alternatives.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#98
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US should invite Taiwan to become the 50-nth state. Perhaps several states, to give them more Senate votes. Numerous polls of the Taiwanese show that they would want to join the US if given the choice between independent statehood, joining the mainland, and joining the US. Plus, the US gets a nice permanent military base and gets to monitor all future Chinese submarine activity. If China attacks a US state, it wo…

I suspect we will never see additional states added to the USA. It’s a very politically divisive topic. I could see Taiwan becoming a US territory, but I doubt as a nation they would really like that. Either of these options woii I led probably be viewed by China as an act of war...

Adding states to the union has always been a politically divisive topic. Hawaii and Alaska were added at the same time specifically so that the balance of power in the senate would stay even. Going back further the same thing was done with free/slave states in the 1830s.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is this really a primary concern? Most of their main fabs are in Taiwan, which is very seismically active.

That's precisely why. It costs A LOT to make a fab seismic resistant They've done this and know the costs

My point is that if you already successfully operate several seismically stable fabs and you're building a new one that's gonna cost you tens of billions of dollars anyway, there must be other factors that are higher on your requirements list.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#100
post #81
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, I'm just thinking that long-term military intervention to prevent capture/annexation of Taiwan is completely impossible, but short-term intervention meant to extract as many Taiwanese as possible prior to inevitable capitulation is very much an option.

Long term military intervention to prevent capture is completely possible if we're willing to pay the price. Weather and geography alone would make an amphibious invasion quite difficult. But China could easily wreck Taiwan's infrastructure and industry without invading.

This^

Not only is it entirely possible to prevent Chinese capture but it's arguably possible for Taiwan to achieve this on their own with minimal to no US intervention. This will likely change in the future, but for the next decade their sovereignty is relatively assured.

To say amphibious invasions are difficult is itself a massive understatement. Taiwan is armed to the teeth and and has incredibly hostile terrain all along its coasts effectively making any attempt on the area a guaranteed bloodbath.

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