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Lasting immunity found after recovery from Covid-19

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Re: Lasting immunity found after recovery from Covid-19

#51

SINGAPORE - The Republic has seen 26 cases of Covid-19 reinfection as Monday (May 10), Health Minister Gan Kim Yong said in a ministerial statement in Parliament on Tuesday. Such reinfections are known to be possible in both overseas and local cases, he noted, but it is still unclear why they occur. The minister said investigations are ongoing to determine if reinfections are due to a general waning of immunity level…

This one's close to my heart since I stay there. At the end of the article:

> there have been 56 cases involving people who were infected despite being fully vaccinated, of which 30 were local cases and 26 were imported ones.

Re: Lasting immunity found after recovery from Covid-19

#52

I’m very surprised that “proof of immunity” isn’t an acceptable alternative to a vaccine for things like travel or work. It seems it’s either vaccine or bust. Anyone know why this is the case?

How do you prove immunity? I thought that antibodies didn't tell the whole story, because your immune systems memory lasts even longer than the antibodies do.

Re: Lasting immunity found after recovery from Covid-19

#53
post #36
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The public health profession has lost so much credibility over the last year. No one should feel the need to reverse engineer latent preemptive anticipatory inverted Stockholm syndrome like this, but here we are.

They've lost credibility because of a concerted effort to discredit them. An effort that was initiated specifically by people who didn't want to follow their broadly reasonable medical advice.

This is a conspiracy theory. An alternative observation is that some very credible critics see failure andrer failure and report on it.

Here’s an article in today’s New York Times just to pluck one of dozens of data points out of the air. To the extent that the amateur game theory, vulgar p-fishing, and playing of telephone that is public health qualifies as a science, it is the most dismal. Rather than communicate the truth about unknowns, or maybe even be curious about the data that they were basing the guidance to mask outdoors on, the CDC scores another own-goal by seemingly misreporting the threat of ourdoor transmission by 3 orders of magnitude.

> Saying that less than 10 percent of Covid transmission occurs outdoors is akin to saying that sharks attack fewer than 20,000 swimmers a year. (The actual worldwide number is around 150.) It’s both true and deceiving.

> In one study, 95 of 10,926 worldwide instances of transmission are classified as outdoors; all 95 are from Singapore construction sites. In another study, four of 103 instances are classified as outdoors; again, all four are from Singapore construction sites.

> This obviously doesn’t make much sense. It instead appears to be a misunderstanding that resembles the childhood game of telephone, in which a message gets garbled as it passes from one person to the next.

> The Singapore data originally comes from a government database there. That database does not categorize the construction-site cases as outdoor transmission, Yap Wei Qiang, a spokesman for the Ministry of Health, told my colleague Shashank Bengali. “We didn’t classify it according to outdoors or indoors,” Yap said. “It could have been workplace transmission where it happens outdoors at the site, or it could also have happened indoors within the construction site.”

This sort of institutional negligence makes the Challenger o-ring disaster look like a paragon of careful professional judgement. Intelligent reporters with an ounce of capacity for independent thought like Zeynep Tufecki are able to get up to speed on the subject and single-handedly provide better guidance than the entire CDC. An institution that can put out false information and bad guidance with all the attendant psychological, political, and economic costs, where no one lifts their hand to argue against the group think is broken at a deep level.

If I sound frustrated it’s because we do need a credible source of information and the CDC should provide that. Every time they do stuff like this they lose more institutional credibility. Instead we get more conspiracy theories in every direction. Even worse state and local governments make policy based on CDC guidance that mis-measures risk and results in worse spread of the virus. See for instance California’s sudden decision to halt outdoor dining which many have argued caused people to substitute a low risk activity for a higher risk activity (meeting anyway, but indoors at someone’s house) potentially resulting in a surge of cases.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/11/briefing/outdoor-covid-tr...

Re: Lasting immunity found after recovery from Covid-19

#54
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. So long as no mutation takes place on the protein spike.

And this part I'm less confident in, but my understanding is the protein spike is unlikely to mutate because it's exactly what allows the virus to bind where it does. If that mutated and that mutation was still somehow successful, I believe it likely wouldn't be as bad a virus.

My understanding is that virologists and immunologists can't really estimate the chance of a more virulent strain that escapes antibodies analytically, because the probability space is too big. A mutation might escape antibodies but also greatly inhibit how fast it spreads, and so on.

Re: Lasting immunity found after recovery from Covid-19

#55
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They also measured significantly higher density of antibodies at the six week mark in people who had their second vaccine dose vs people who recovered from an infection.

Source?

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2032195

Re: Lasting immunity found after recovery from Covid-19

#56
post #12

This is promising. Anecdotally though, I know people in India who got covid (with symptoms) twice or even thrice over the last 12 months. I imagine antibody generation is different for different people, and/or response to variants of the virus is different.

This sounds apocryphal. Second infections are incredibly rare, let alone three in twelve months.

Like clockwork, every discussion of this matter on a discussion board brings out at least one person claiming to know people who have been re-infected, yet the number of confirmed examples is measured in the low hundreds, worldwide.

Re: Lasting immunity found after recovery from Covid-19

#57
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The consensus I’m hearing from epidemiologists is the mRNA vaccines should offer better immunity than infection. So it would seem the 8 month for immunity after infection should be a lower bound for the vaccine effectiveness.

> The consensus I’m hearing from epidemiologists is the mRNA vaccines should offer better immunity than infection Serious question: How can we possibly know this? I'm all for vaccinations (I'm going in for my second shot this weekend), but I just worry about commentary backed by intuition that doesn't carry sufficient disclaiming.

From my understanding, there are two main reasons. 1) The two spaced exposures. Repeated spaced exposures build a significantly stronger response. 2) Isolation of the spike protein. Just like ML might pick up on a correlated part of the image while learning to recognize things (many examples, no good links), your immune system may learn to react to different parts of the virus. The spike protein is the most unchanging part, and all the vaccine will teach your body to attack.

Re: Lasting immunity found after recovery from Covid-19

#58
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Testing for immunity could easily cost more than the vaccine. Also most people haven't caught it yet, so you'd need to give them the vaccine anyways.

The antibody tests are like $5.

Where can I get such a test that is accurate and shows a quantitative number)? Quest charges $80.

Re: Lasting immunity found after recovery from Covid-19

#59
post #36
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The public health profession has lost so much credibility over the last year. No one should feel the need to reverse engineer latent preemptive anticipatory inverted Stockholm syndrome like this, but here we are.

They've lost credibility because of a concerted effort to discredit them. An effort that was initiated specifically by people who didn't want to follow their broadly reasonable medical advice.

They did this themselves. Fauci, CDC and WHO constantly have gone back and forth between each other and themselves.

Re: Lasting immunity found after recovery from Covid-19

#60

I’m very surprised that “proof of immunity” isn’t an acceptable alternative to a vaccine for things like travel or work. It seems it’s either vaccine or bust. Anyone know why this is the case?

I'm hoping it will be since I have longcovid and don't want the vaccine. Anyone who is willing to pay for the new T-Cell test [1] and is positive should be given the same rights as any vaccine passport provides.

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-23/t-cell-sc...

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