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Tech giants join call for funding U.S. chip production

reuters.com

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Re: Tech giants join call for funding U.S. chip production

#231

Post by threeseed »

WillPostForFood wrote: post #227
threeseed wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea that China has a 100% chance of winning is laughable and plain wrong. There are so many dynamics involved e.g. Japan needing to defend the Senkaku Islands, India, UK and EU member states being involved and the fact that you an increasingly united front within APAC. Also China's military is a lot of smoke and mirrors. They simply can't match the F-22 and F-35 in the air or the Ford class aircraft carriers in…

The US hasn't even committed to defending Taiwan. I doubt the US would militarily intervene. The risk of escalation is too high. If China is committed to taking it, they will get it. The response would be economic, and I'm not confident enough of the world cares, or isn't already beholden to China for it to matter. >Ford class aircraft carriers Isn't there only one Ford class carrier? And it is still not fully ready,…

At this point there is very little economic sanctions US could impose on China that Trump didn't already either try or talk about. And anything with teeth will never work whilst US companies build everything in China. So for me a short military dispute is more likely.

No one is expecting war this year. There will be 3 Ford Class carriers by 2030 and 5 by 2040. As well as the Nimitz class which are still better than what China has today.

Re: Tech giants join call for funding U.S. chip production

#232

Post by christkv »

_-david-_ wrote: post #212
smithza wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From some commentaries I read, China has a near 100% chance of winning in war with Taiwan even if US and allies join. This is mostly to do with mainland China's relative proximity to Taiwan and the few relative number of air bases US has on Japan and how far away Hawaii is.

Wars are not single battles. If China were to attack (and capture) Taiwan the war would not just be over. The West could attack mainland China and attempt to retake Taiwan.

To take Taiwan China will need air supremacy as well as naval supremacy lack of either one will make it close to impossible. Think about what it took to do d day possible and that was a much shorter crossing and the combined resources of the allies with full air and naval supremacy.

Re: Tech giants join call for funding U.S. chip production

#233

Post by christkv »

Dah00n wrote: post #197
tpmx wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. I suspect that you don't realize that Taiwan is a (to many) surprisingly first-world place. "environmental and human rights externalities" is not a very large issue in this context. It's not like mainland China/PRC. 2. I think both e.g. US and EU should have their own chip-manufacturing infrastructure. We need more robustness at a global scale in this area. 3. Taiwan needs (and deserves) US/EU support. TSMC has tu…

Taiwan needs support yes, but the US isn't helping. Poking China by sending warships to patrol its borders makes us the bad guys. If China did what we do we would have WW3 instantly.

The us is navigating international waters that China is trying to claim as theirs in fact they claim territorial waters from all their neighbors international treaties be damned. Thus they are in conflict with everyone around them.

Re: Tech giants join call for funding U.S. chip production

#234

Post by bob1029 »

xiaolingxiao wrote: post #29

What are the geopolitical consequence of a de-coupled chip supply chain? Recall TSMC is headquartered in Taiwan, which has been a point of contention in US-China relationship since the 1950s. Please discuss civilly.

In game theoretic terms - If you feel like the only leverage you have over your opponent is about to be obviated by some other approach (i.e. domestic chip fabrication becomes dominant within the decade), then there could be some increase in tensions.

My implication here being that China is aware that they are capable of making an unstoppable strike against all TSMC's leading edge fabrication capacity, and that this action would be far more harmful to the strategic positioning of the US than to any other nation on earth. The ability to execute this option is time-limited by the US wishing to grow domestic capacity.

Whether this implication holds in reality is something I am very much open to suggestion on. I am fully aware that the US military's response to such an action is probably the leading reason it is not something we have seen occur already. I am also unsure if the impact of all 7nm node loss is substantially greater for the US vs any other country.

Re: Tech giants join call for funding U.S. chip production

#235

Post by hashmymustache »

Meandering wrote: post #209
ohashi wrote: post #99

If the US tax payer gets a significant stake in the chip fab venture, I would be OK with this. We want to secure national security via chip manufacturing and you want billions of dollars? Give us some upside. I don't want to hear it creates jobs, it generates blah blah blah, a real equity stake and possibly repayment of the capital. Creating jobs should be a happy by-product of subsidizing an industry that is probabl…

This is what I was thinking... These corporations are the ones whom benefited from exporting the production infrastructure at the expense of the labor market. Now, they want the labor market to fund the redevelopment of the infrastructure for their benefit. I'm confused as to why the US government needs to be involved capital investment when these companies are boasting historic profit margins.

I emotionally agree as you are correct and it is infuriating, but on the other hand it is the responsibility of the federal government to protect (subsidize, trade policy), and regulate domestic production of vital goods. Companies exported manufacturing because the government, elected by its citizens, did nothing to stop them. On some level it is very much the tax payer responsible for recalibrating the imbalance even if they aren’t to blame.

Re: Tech giants join call for funding U.S. chip production

#236

Post by mjevans »

fvv wrote: post #179

50b would be better spent founding Taiwan entering un and it's emancipation ,and going explicitly to defend them along with Eu instead of wasting money for Intel buybacks, 50b in that industry is nothing, America and free world need Taiwan independence ( and i'm saying that not because Taiwanese ,i'm European but Europe is weak in those geopolitics play and need us for sure) Globalization is inevitable , resistance i…

It would be nice for them to be in the UN.

Can we still build some stuff in the continental Americas? Yes please to all solutions for producing modern stuff.

Re: Tech giants join call for funding U.S. chip production

#237

Post by nobodyandproud »

WillPostForFood wrote: post #227
threeseed wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea that China has a 100% chance of winning is laughable and plain wrong. There are so many dynamics involved e.g. Japan needing to defend the Senkaku Islands, India, UK and EU member states being involved and the fact that you an increasingly united front within APAC. Also China's military is a lot of smoke and mirrors. They simply can't match the F-22 and F-35 in the air or the Ford class aircraft carriers in…

The US hasn't even committed to defending Taiwan. I doubt the US would militarily intervene. The risk of escalation is too high. If China is committed to taking it, they will get it. The response would be economic, and I'm not confident enough of the world cares, or isn't already beholden to China for it to matter. >Ford class aircraft carriers Isn't there only one Ford class carrier? And it is still not fully ready,…

Make Taiwan the 52nd state of the US.

Make Geopolitics interesting again.

Re: Tech giants join call for funding U.S. chip production

#238

Post by nfc »

dang wrote: post #192
lvs wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hm, it certainly looks a lot like "improve the quality of the threads" == suppress industry critique.

"Industry critique" fills virtually every HN thread. With suppression like that, who needs amplifiers? Most people who see a moderation decision they dislike leap straight to the idea that the moderators secretly hold $VIEW, ignoring (or not noticing) all the moderation decisions going the opposite way. In reality, we just don't care— I don't have words to describe how profoundly we don't care about commenter opinion…

Hi dang, thanks for the amazing work you do moderating HN.

Reading your words "The weariness that arises at the thought of caring about commenter opinions" got me thinking about how the unique experience (even if perhaps not specially positive) that a moderator has to go through can influence his view of the world. I hope this equilibrium that you seem to have reached makes you happy, I can imagine how moderating can be an ungrateful job.

Re: Tech giants join call for funding U.S. chip production

#239

Post by mjevans »

fuzzer37 wrote: post #125
jvanderbot wrote: post #63

Well, TSMC had 2020 revenue in the 30 giga-$ range. Even a few 3% sales tax on that revenue would pay for a 5 giga-$ investment in 5 years. (or a few F-35's / year) That's grossly optimistic numbers, given US labor costs, startup costs, etc, but it's also potentially a reasonable investment that would be sustained by domestic and international purchases (one would hope).

What is a giga-buck?

Engineering notation, 10^12. Since 'billion' is an overloaded term with different values depending on historic and national context.

Re: Tech giants join call for funding U.S. chip production

#240

Post by depressedpanda »

dang wrote: post #192
lvs wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hm, it certainly looks a lot like "improve the quality of the threads" == suppress industry critique.

"Industry critique" fills virtually every HN thread. With suppression like that, who needs amplifiers? Most people who see a moderation decision they dislike leap straight to the idea that the moderators secretly hold $VIEW, ignoring (or not noticing) all the moderation decisions going the opposite way. In reality, we just don't care— I don't have words to describe how profoundly we don't care about commenter opinion…

I think you're doing a great job, but if that job burdens you with existential weariness maybe you should look for something else to do, for your own sake?

This is just a commenter opinion, though, so feel free to not care about it :-)

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