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A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

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Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#81

Post by achenatx »

huachimingo wrote: post #71
ben_w wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The more we depend on automation, the more vulnerable we are to power failure. Consider grocery shopping: what fraction of sales are online? What fraction in-store are card-based? Do the tills work offline, and if not, how fast can the cashiers work by hand? Does the store request resupply either automatically or via a manager looking at a spreadsheet, and if so, can the manager manage that without computer assistanc…

If everything falls like a house of cards in such scenario, does it mean that we are over-dependent on electricity? Im not a ludite but I would say thats better to have a plan B in such case.

once you go down that road you will find preppers (e.g. doomsday preppers)

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#82

Post by jjeaff »

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #74
madia_leva wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would also disrupt food, drinking water and sweage. And all transportation, so even fuel would not be available. Without clean water and sanitation at home cities would be death traps. People living on an area with rivers and wild animals could do a bit better. Unless they are at reach of people walking out of the cities. Think about a zombie apocalypse, but with starving people by the hundreds of thousands. Starv…

It makes sense to keep food and water, only if you also have protection. I mean a weapon. Because those 20 million zombies are coming.

It only makes sense to have protection if you are going to have enough protection to fend off all 20 million of those zombies.

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#83

Post by monkeybutton »

philjohn wrote: post #75
medstrom wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For anyone not in the know, the ecliptic is the plane of the Earth's and most planets' orbit.

Is there any reason for that - gravitational forces from the planets perhaps?

Perhaps due to the sun's rotation?

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#84

Post by penteract »

philjohn wrote: post #75
medstrom wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For anyone not in the know, the ecliptic is the plane of the Earth's and most planets' orbit.

Is there any reason for that - gravitational forces from the planets perhaps?

I'd guess that it's related to the sun's rotation - the sun's equator roughly lies on the ecliptic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_rotation

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#85

Post by barry-cotter »

weagle05 wrote: post #26
xeromal wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fair enough. I don't have the data to back it up. What countries do you have as examples for me to inform myself with?

I too would be interested to view these models. Coming from a rural background, people in my hometown still have gardens and hunt/fish. We're one, maybe two, generations removed from people producing most of their own food. I don't see how cities deal when they can't refrigerate food and the supply chain is interrupted.

> I don't see how cities deal when they can't refrigerate food and the supply chain is interrupted.

A large majority of people, including all but the youngest children in the developed world are healthy enough to survive just fine on zero calories for a week as long as they have clean water. You wouldn’t have zero calories and that’s probably enough time to start milling animal feed corn and processing other animal feed into something edible by humans. The developed world is well capable of feeding itself even in very bad situations. This is a coordination problem and in catastrophes people do not turn into locusts. They pull together. See WW2 in all combatant nations. I’d expect high mortality among the very young, very old and very sick and well over 90% survival rates four most of the developed world besides those groups.

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#86

Post by gonzo41 »

zupa-hu wrote: post #50

I don't really get the "nightmare" consequences. Sure, some electric systems will go down / maybe burn down. But few people will die, right? When I saw nightmare in the title, I expected something like humanity will be wiped out, or maybe just 90% of us. Can somebody clarify?

Your phone will be wiped out. For A LOT of people that is the END.

It'd probably be something like loosing 10 years of world GDP all at once. Probably pretty good for the environment if we used the opportunity to build back greener.

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#88

Post by taneq »

agreeableone wrote: post #30

The timing of the Carrington Event was strangely fortuitous - only when a few telegraph lines had been installed. So the cost of the adverse event was relatively minor. Good thing the aliens controlling our simulation tested us early.

Early enough that only a few telegraph lines were affected, but late enough that there were some and we noticed that it was more than some unusually bright auroras.

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#89

Post by graderjs »

briantakita wrote: post #11

The current weakening of Earth's Geomagnetic field (Geomagnetic Excursion) would leave Earth relatively unprotected from a CME as well. Weakened Geomagnetic Fields seem to be correlated to mass extinction/evolution events. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/201... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X1... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S13429...

That's a cool plain-language summary:

The strength of Earth's magnetic field in the past, recorded by rocks and sediments, provides a proxy for past flux of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) to Earth's surface due to the role of the field in modulating stratigraphic ozone. About 40,000 years ago, mammalian fossils in Australia and Eurasia record an important die‐off of large mammals that included Neanderthals in Europe. In the Americas and Europe, a large mammalian die‐off appears to have occurred ~13,000 years ago. Both die‐offs can be linked to minima in Earth's magnetic field strength implying that UVR flux variations to Earth's surface influenced mammalian evolution. For the last ~200,000 years, estimates of the timing of branching episodes in the human evolutionary tree, from modern and fossil DNA and Y chromosomes, can be linked to minima in field strength, which implies a long‐term role for UVR in human evolution. New fossil finds, improved fossil dating, knowledge of the past strength of Earth's magnetic field, and refinements in the human evolutionary tree, are sharpening the focus on a possible link between UVR arriving at the Earth's surface, magnetic field strength, and events in mammalian evolution.

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#90

Post by anonuser123456 »

consumer451 wrote: post #35

Does anyone have an idea of what a CME direct hit would do to a residential solar/battery system? Would the outcomes for grid-connected and off-grid systems be different?

There is a 12 hour lead time to prepare. If disconnected from the grid it would be fine.
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