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A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

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Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#61

Post by smeej »

zupa-hu wrote: post #50

I don't really get the "nightmare" consequences. Sure, some electric systems will go down / maybe burn down. But few people will die, right? When I saw nightmare in the title, I expected something like humanity will be wiped out, or maybe just 90% of us. Can somebody clarify?

In the U.S., there was a study, with results published by the EMP Commission, indicating that as many as 90% of people could die within a year as a result of a pulse event hitting the electrical grid.[0]

I don't know if the same extends to other places, but once distribution and sanitation systems break down, which are heavily dependent on electricity, it'll become pretty clear very quickly just how ill-equipped we are for a world without reliable electricity.

[0] http://www.empcommission.org/

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#62

Post by roenxi »

zupa-hu wrote: post #50

I don't really get the "nightmare" consequences. Sure, some electric systems will go down / maybe burn down. But few people will die, right? When I saw nightmare in the title, I expected something like humanity will be wiped out, or maybe just 90% of us. Can somebody clarify?

Wouldn't this involve losing all communication grids and access to bank accounts? That'd be pretty disruptive.

I suppose the immediate challenge would be how to organise food 7 days out if we got hit by something like that. Assuming people put in a desperate effort and sort that out somehow, then the medium term problem would be something like a long period where effective communication is gone and any JIT systems fall apart. COVID shortages times 100 possibly.

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#63

Post by ben_w »

zupa-hu wrote: post #50

I don't really get the "nightmare" consequences. Sure, some electric systems will go down / maybe burn down. But few people will die, right? When I saw nightmare in the title, I expected something like humanity will be wiped out, or maybe just 90% of us. Can somebody clarify?

The more we depend on automation, the more vulnerable we are to power failure.

Consider grocery shopping: what fraction of sales are online? What fraction in-store are card-based? Do the tills work offline, and if not, how fast can the cashiers work by hand? Does the store request resupply either automatically or via a manager looking at a spreadsheet, and if so, can the manager manage that without computer assistance? Do the freezers and refrigerators still work? Do the gas pumps used by the delivery trucks? Can current distribution warehouses function if there is no electric lighting? What are the power requirements of modern factories that turn ingredients into food products?

These questions probably have multiple answers, one for each different business, but the chain breaks on the weakest link.

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#65

Post by zupa-hu »

smeej wrote: post #61
zupa-hu wrote: post #50

I don't really get the "nightmare" consequences. Sure, some electric systems will go down / maybe burn down. But few people will die, right? When I saw nightmare in the title, I expected something like humanity will be wiped out, or maybe just 90% of us. Can somebody clarify?

In the U.S., there was a study, with results published by the EMP Commission, indicating that as many as 90% of people could die within a year as a result of a pulse event hitting the electrical grid.[0] I don't know if the same extends to other places, but once distribution and sanitation systems break down, which are heavily dependent on electricity, it'll become pretty clear very quickly just how ill-equipped we a…

Oh that's an interesting aspect. I was on the lookout for immediate consequences. Thanks for clarifying!

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#66

Post by zupa-hu »

ben_w wrote: post #63
zupa-hu wrote: post #50

I don't really get the "nightmare" consequences. Sure, some electric systems will go down / maybe burn down. But few people will die, right? When I saw nightmare in the title, I expected something like humanity will be wiped out, or maybe just 90% of us. Can somebody clarify?

The more we depend on automation, the more vulnerable we are to power failure. Consider grocery shopping: what fraction of sales are online? What fraction in-store are card-based? Do the tills work offline, and if not, how fast can the cashiers work by hand? Does the store request resupply either automatically or via a manager looking at a spreadsheet, and if so, can the manager manage that without computer assistanc…

Very good points, thanks!

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#67

Post by cesarb »

codeulike wrote: post #60
zupa-hu wrote: post #50

I don't really get the "nightmare" consequences. Sure, some electric systems will go down / maybe burn down. But few people will die, right? When I saw nightmare in the title, I expected something like humanity will be wiped out, or maybe just 90% of us. Can somebody clarify?

I think the often cited problem is that if a national electricity grid goes down, its a very long and complex job to get them back up again, especially if transformers are damaged.

If there's no damage, it doesn't take that long. We had a blackout in 2009 in which the national grid of two countries (Itaipu is shared between Brazil and Paraguay) went down; I'm looking at the official report right now, and it took less than half a day to restore nearly all of the system for this country. Of course, if there's damage beyond the redundancies, it can take much longer; see for instance the recent blackout in the Amapá state, in which two transformers at a key substation were damaged by fire (and the third was under maintenance).

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#68

Post by pasabagi »

PicassoCTs wrote: post #47

How about creating a mass-ejection-storm-powered sunwards satellite, that creates a magnetic field and allows earth to orbit in its "calmer" cone-wake? It would be basically just "dead" components + coolant at point of event, held in place till then by a steering module. I don't subscribe to the incident statistics on this anymore. We had similar incident statistics pre-chernobyl, pre-fukushima and they are not merel…

I think there is a context to Chernobyl or Fukushima - they were industrial accidents, and there is a very long history of industrial accidents, many of which were far more deadly.

Obviously, in both the USSR and Japan, there were/are problems with regulatory capture, and in the USSR, safety culture. I think people overfocus on the dramatic explosion and underfocus on the legion of maimed, poisoned, and permanently disabled people that suffer from industrial accidents every day. It's both unjust and ineffective - you can't make a dangerous industrial process safe in a society where civil servants see their job as to promote the interests of big industrial concerns, and that's at the root of both Fukishima and Minamata disease.

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#70

Post by kevingadd »

f6v wrote: post #57
zupa-hu wrote: post #50

I don't really get the "nightmare" consequences. Sure, some electric systems will go down / maybe burn down. But few people will die, right? When I saw nightmare in the title, I expected something like humanity will be wiped out, or maybe just 90% of us. Can somebody clarify?

I guess anyone on life support would die swiftly.

Also anyone reliant on perishable medicines or regular treatments that would be threatened by utility outages - some medicines need to be refrigerated, for example, so after a week or so without power all of that stuff is probably a goner.
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