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The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

cnbc.com

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Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#531

Post by stjohnswarts »

throwawayboise wrote: post #344
mywittyname wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They've been low for a while now too. As annoying as it is to have a $670 car payment each month, you really can't beat 0% interest on a $40k loan. Especially in a market where the average monthly return on $40k in stocks has been pretty substantial.

You lose all of that and more on depreciation in the first two years. I buy older than most people; currently my newest car is a 2009. I do maintenance and routine repairs myself, and I lose almost nothing on depreciation. But you can still come out ahead by buying 4-6 years old and letting the original buyers take the bulk of the depreciation losses.

For me the sweet spot has been 5 years old and < 60K miles, usually cars with that description haven't been run into the ground. Currently driving a mustang with 200K miles on it and it still runs like a sewing machine. It's harder now though, pandemic has really driven up used car prices, makes more sense to buy new currently, especially if you're getting something like a honda or toyota that holds value.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#532

Post by epistasis »

benjohnson wrote: post #283
systemvoltage wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trucks are vehicles. How can they be political? I know plenty of people from all kinds of backgrounds owning a truck.

The same reasons usually apply to large BMW and Mercedes SUVs. The correct people own those so they don't attract the same Attention.

Up until this year I would have agreed with you, but grills this year have gotten completely out of control. The lack of visibility and the height of the impact zone has really changed on some trucks.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#533

Post by phonon »

anigbrowl wrote: post #294
nradov wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Smaller trucks are available for those who want them. Most buyers prefer larger trucks.

Where are they? Look at these explicitly 'small trucks': https://www.motortrend.com/news/best-small-trucks/ What am I supposed to search for, small small trucks? Trucks that are actually small? Looking for cheap trucks still delivers large vehicles, just with fewer features: https://www.motortrend.com/news/cheapest-pickup-trucks-frill... I even searched 'smallest trucks' and...guess what. The Honda Ridgeline seems li…

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a36125131/2022-hyundai-san...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgaElsORHSQ

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#534

Post by geerlingguy »

kens wrote: post #337
justapassenger wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most new cars still suck / Do not offer meaningful new features. In terms of bells and whistles? Yeah, not that much. But in terms of safety tech, there has been a huge progress in last 10 years and it’s not slowing down. New cars are not only getting harder to crash, but in case of crash they’re getting better and better at protecting you. Safety is main reason why I update my cars every few years, even tho it’s p…

A couple of days ago I was watching a dramatic video showing test collisions of old cars vs modern cars. I was surprised by how much safer a 2016 car was than a 1992 car. Not to mention the 1959 death trap Bel Air. (It's alarming though that 1992 is now the olden days.) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TikJC0x65X0

But a 2010+ car is not that far off a brand new car. Used doesn't just mean old junker!

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#535

Post by stjohnswarts »

MandieD wrote: post #242
ineedasername wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most new cars still suck / Do not offer meaningful new features That really depends on how old your car is. I generally buy instead of lease, and run the car until it starts having regular problems. As a result, my car is 12 years old, and any new one from the last few years is a significant upgrade in terms of features. I don't really want a monthly car payment again, but I'm almost looking forward to when my curren…

We had a 2020 Corolla as a rental over Christmas/New Years 2019/20, and it was amazing. What we drive at home: a 2008 Ford Fiesta that my husband bought in 2013. My only worry is that something will go wrong enough with it in the next year or so that we’d be compelled to get another car in this rather tight market, but otherwise, knowing that your car's current resale (and repurchase) value is approximately the secon…

Next year will probably be better. The current shortage in materials and chips is a product of so many things (supply chains) getting mothballed, they'll be up to full production by next year.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#536

Post by baybal2 »

exmadscientist wrote: post #507
crote wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm very loosely involved in the highly customized keyboard business, think runs of a couple hundred units. One vendor is having trouble finding any chip to design for. The software stack supports a couple of dozen STM32 chip series, but none of them are even remotely available. I've seen a lead time of over 11 months. Before COVID, pretty much every single chip was in stock almost all of the time. Respinning a board…

STM32 isn't the only Cortex-M microcontroller series in the world, you know. They're popular because they're pretty decent, low cost, have good dev boards and offer a wide variety of parts. However, their software sucks (okay, so do all of the other options...), their peripherals are not as good as some of the other options (in particular I'm thinking of peripheral clock trees when I say this, among other things), an…

> They're popular because they're pretty decent, low cost, have good dev boards and offer a wide variety of parts.

Now find a single person who can program bare hardware on a short notice on above Arduino level.

The current chip shortage has claimed 6 of our firmware devs, all hired by companies ready to spend just any money for anybody "who can replace that ____ing STM|NXP|Renesas thing"

People downstream in the industry greatly overestimated their knowledge of the industry.

Lots of tech companies around who had zero prior knowledge of embedded development, now jumping on it, and breaking their teeth.

I haven't heard more fabulous questions like "Are there other microcontrollers than Intel, and AMD in the world?" this year than any time before.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#537

Post by stjohnswarts »

bredren wrote: post #162
itsoktocry wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you consider "meaningful new features"? What about new cars "sucks"? They are more reliable, safer, quieter, more powerful, more fuel efficient and more full featured than ever.

We are in the iPod Video stage of individual car ownership.

Yeah, I'm tryign to make my dino car last until I can get a $40k electric car that will go 500 mile on a single charge running AC in the Texas heat. THen I'll run that into the ground for 15-20 years hopefully.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#538

Post by Tenoke »

dahart wrote: post #134
jfoster wrote: post #4

Why is there a shortage rather than a price hike, similar to what would happen with fuel? Long term contracts?

Maybe we have both? A price hike won’t necessarily fix a shortage, right? (Price hikes didn’t exactly fix n95 mask demand, for example.) The video in the article explains that the auto industry stepped out of the queue by cancelling all their orders. Now demand is high and they want to cut back in line. So this story about auto makers is taking advantage of a loose and slightly misleading use of the word “shortage”.…

>Price hikes didn’t exactly fix n95 mask demand

I'm not sure about n95s specifically but generally we saw mask prices hike, and then production increased quickly enough that there were masks for the majority of the population within a couple of months.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#539

Post by azernik »

throwawayboise wrote: post #341
Mavvie wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like each year cars get way safer. It started with blind spot detectors/cameras, and modern cars will even brake automatically and keep you in your lane (or at least warn you if you leave it). Maybe new features like self-driving aren't as interesting, but I would buy a new car instead of a used one just for the perceived improved safety. I don't know if there's any research showing that these features actuall…

Many of these features add minimal benefit if you do some common-sense stuff such as, don't drive when you're really tired (or drunk, or on drugs, etc.); don't play with your phone while you're driving; don't read, do your makeup, shave, etc. while you're driving. IOW put your focus on the task at hand and you don't really need blind spot detectors. Of course the reality is that people are pretty bad at these things.

Even people in good condition make mistakes and miss things. That's why airplanes have stall-warning stick shakers and pull-up alerts even for trained professionals.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#540

Post by azernik »

aerophilic wrote: post #286
bredren wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since 14% of renters are behind on rent and evictions begin June 30, aren’t vehicle repossessions going to kick in July / August? Presumably, due in part to eviction protection, they have been able to divert all or a portion of their rent payments to keeping up with bad car loans for commute vehicles that often will not be needed. These folks need them for housing unfortunately. If repossessed cars start showing up t…

A somewhat not intuitive fact: Most renters prioritize their car payments over other debts/rent. Without a car they have no income…

And in many states, your car is one of the things that cannot be repossessed in case of bankruptcy.
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