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The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

cnbc.com

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Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#141

Post by anonymousab »

indymike wrote: post #116
f6v wrote: post #48

There's useful technology, like computer controlling your engine to make it more fuel-efficient or whatever. And then there're "smart appliances", like a fridge with a screen. Do we really need it? The companies try to sell us more useless stuff, that's what it is.

If people do not want a screen on the fridge, then the sales numbers will tell manufacturers not to make that model. So much of product is experimentation, and often times the research and experiments ends up being wrong. So many products and companies fail when they go to market and find out nobody wants it. The other side of the coin are the products that are unexpected hits... There are so many things that have to…

> then the sales numbers will tell manufacturers not to make that model

Doesn't really matter... if Fridge with a Screen makes 4x the profits or simply has a recurring revenue per unit where Fridge Without a Screen does not, then the market will become purely Fridge With a Screen.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#142

Post by bombcar »

skybrian wrote: post #74
nthj wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's fascinating: because Factorio is deterministic, I always build out one massive, consolidated chip factory and distribute chips to other factories from there. But as we see here, in the real world, with droughts and pandemics, this is a risky strategy.

Maybe Factorio needs some random disasters like SimCity or RimWorld?

Biters effectively do this though it’s technically entirely deterministic - and you can build a defense strong enough to make it not an issue, but that’s quite involved.

The most common “production” disasters are caused by an oversupply of one item, which stockpiled, and you go into under supply but don’t notice until you’re off doing something else (and that can cause critical self-defense mechanisms to shut down at bad times).

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#143

Post by perardi »

anonymousab wrote: post #132
perardi wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are still lots, and lots, and lots of dumb appliances. I think you’d have to go out of the way to buy a toothbrush with Bluetooth, and I see many a non-smart fridge in the best sellers at Home Depot. ( https://www.homedepot.com/b/Appliances-Refrigerators-Side-by... ) For all the hooplah about smart homes and Alexa and Thread and Merlin Mann screaming about HomeKit and blah blah blah…most people have dumb lightb…

> For all the hooplah about smart homes and Alexa and Thread and blah blah blah…most people have dumb lightbulbs, dumb garage doors, and dumb fridges. For now. The profits to be made on microtransactions and subscriptions from internet-requiring features are too gargantuan to pass up, to not become the new norm. And, of course, unblockable ads and tracking. A fun recent example is a motorcycle emergency vest that sto…

Or BMW’s attempt to sell subscriptions to CarPlay and heated seats.

https://www.thedrive.com/news/34547/bmw-is-planning-to-sell-...

But still…that’s high-margin subscriptions on top of a high-margin product. I am, currently, skeptical we will end up with low-end Internet of Shit for everything, because running that subscription service requires a big up-front investment that’s hard when you’re selling, I don’t know, toaster ovens.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#144

Post by rsj_hn »

dralley wrote: post #42
postpawl wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I go to “shop all” in the refrigerators section of Home Depot’s site and look at the count next to the filter for “smart” features - Only 97 out of 798 refrigerators they sell have smart features.

That was, at one time, true for "smart TVs" as well.

TVs are different as there is a large number of people who realize they don't need TVs anymore, they need gaming/computer monitors and can stream all the content they need. This increased substitutability with cheap, dumb monitors -- you no longer need a TV to watch TV -- means the pricing power of TV makers has fallen -- TV prices have plunged dramatically -- and they are desperately trying to find new business models and new value propositions, one of these is to subsidize the physical product and start monetizing attention.

I don't think washing machine makers have this option, nor is the internet a threat to replace washing machines. Of course business majors keep graduating and they will get bright ideas like selling information about what you wash to third parties, and they will have dreams of subscription revenue, but until they can provide a compelling value proposition, these are not going to get widely adopted. TVs are declining in price at 20% a year. Users are getting great value in exchange for putting up with the ads.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#145

Post by dwighttk »

wizzwizz4 wrote: post #128
ineedasername wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most new cars still suck / Do not offer meaningful new features That really depends on how old your car is. I generally buy instead of lease, and run the car until it starts having regular problems. As a result, my car is 12 years old, and any new one from the last few years is a significant upgrade in terms of features. I don't really want a monthly car payment again, but I'm almost looking forward to when my curren…

If you don't want a monthly car payment, start your “monthly car payment” into a savings account now. You'll end up paying less for your next car if you can maximise the up-front payment.

If you don’t want a monthly car payment pay a monthly car payment so later you can have a smaller monthly car payment?

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#146

Post by smt88 »

devney wrote: post #11

For years I've been asking: Why does my toothbrush have to connect to bluetooth? Why does my refrigerator twitter? These were always useless mis-features and we can hope some of them can get pared down now with the shortage. Bring back old style dumb appliances!

Chips in cars are decades old and are useful for things like managing fuel injection, increasing fuel efficiency.

"Dumb" cars have chips too.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#147

Post by ineedasername »

wizzwizz4 wrote: post #128
ineedasername wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most new cars still suck / Do not offer meaningful new features That really depends on how old your car is. I generally buy instead of lease, and run the car until it starts having regular problems. As a result, my car is 12 years old, and any new one from the last few years is a significant upgrade in terms of features. I don't really want a monthly car payment again, but I'm almost looking forward to when my curren…

If you don't want a monthly car payment, start your “monthly car payment” into a savings account now. You'll end up paying less for your next car if you can maximise the up-front payment.

Yes, we save a healthy portion of our income, but increasing that now just shifts the timing, not the pain, of when have to start a new car payment.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#148

Post by neogodless »

fsflover wrote: post #109
neogodless wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What country are you in? I know I can eliminate Taiwan and the United States from the list, as they both have semiconductor fabs!

So how much do USA-made mobile phones cost?

The Librem costs a lot! BLU was more reasonably priced. Not sure if they're still putting out new products.

https://shop.puri.sm/shop/librem-5-usa/

https://www.bluproducts.com/home/

Also relevant (since most iPhone manufacturing is not done in the US.)

https://fee.org/articles/a-made-in-america-iphone-would-cost...

Of course, that's a different goal from "making chips in the USA", which is done today, including the best-selling personal computer chips.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#149

Post by cocoafleck »

speed_spread wrote: post #127
anonyxyz wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe if there was a little less regulation in the first place, things like bitcoin wouldn't have as much appeal as they do.

This is old rhetoric. Sidestepping the government no longer has anything to do with Bitcoin appeal. At this point, it's purely speculation and money laundering, all subversiveness potential has been evacuated for good.

I realize many people don't care about credit cards spying on them, but I do value cryptocurrencies offering alternatives. From what I understand the Apple Credit Card was somewhat of a similar attempt (Goldman Sachs isn't allowed to sell the information). I'm not saying that the benefits outweigh the costs, but it does seem that they allow for more than money laundering, and speculation.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#150

Post by itsoktocry »

bredren wrote: post #98
smiley1437 wrote: post #58

Interestingly, there is an embedded video in that article that explains the issue specific to the automotive shortage - it's because the automotive industry cancelled a lot of chip orders in anticipation of low vehicle demand and that caused chip makers to reduce their production for the kinds of chips that go into cars, and now it takes time to ramp back up: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/03/02/how-the-global-compu…

Since 14% of renters are behind on rent and evictions begin June 30, aren’t vehicle repossessions going to kick in July / August? Presumably, due in part to eviction protection, they have been able to divert all or a portion of their rent payments to keeping up with bad car loans for commute vehicles that often will not be needed. These folks need them for housing unfortunately. If repossessed cars start showing up t…

What do you consider "meaningful new features"? What about new cars "sucks"? They are more reliable, safer, quieter, more powerful, more fuel efficient and more full featured than ever.
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