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The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

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Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#521

Post by dapids »

jbgreer wrote: post #516
neltnerb wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get that this is a potential big problem, but I had to stop reading when the dog washing company blamed needing to respin a new board on a chip being out of stock due to this. I'm sorry, but if you aren't buying enough chips to build all the boards you want to build of a revision, this is just what happens, chip shortage or no. Stuff gets obsoleted all the time, it doesn't take a chip shortage. Blaming a black swan…

Even if you did order enough to produce a run, there is no guarantee you’ll get the full quantity or any at all. Suffice it to say I know this first hand. Had a vendor come back and say, “Sorry, we know we promised your order by June, but it isn’t going to happen.” Thankfully getting a break on a new part, but respin and recertification cost and time are also causing heartburn.

Sounds like a contracting problem to me.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#522

Post by kevin_thibedeau »

systemvoltage wrote: post #275
nradov wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Smaller trucks are available for those who want them. Most buyers prefer larger trucks.

Cars are getting larger in general, not just trucks.

Most "cars" in the US are classified as trucks so that fuel economy regulations can be gamed. It's all been downhill ever since the PT Cruiser managed to get a truck designation.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#523

Post by VWWHFSfQ »

andrekandre wrote: post #512

U.S. tech giant Intel has offered to help but it reportedly wants 8 billion euros in public subsidies toward building a semiconductor factory in Europe. wow.... my immediate reaction is "then it should be a public foundry, if payed for by the public"... but maybe im missing some detail/nuance...

> "then it should be a public foundry, if payed for by the public"

It sounds to me like Intel is willing to set up a fab in Europe, and they've stated their asking price. Why does this immediately result in people saying that it should be a public foundry just because it would ultimately be paid for by the public?

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#524

Post by stjohnswarts »

wetpaws wrote: post #352
Mavvie wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like each year cars get way safer. It started with blind spot detectors/cameras, and modern cars will even brake automatically and keep you in your lane (or at least warn you if you leave it). Maybe new features like self-driving aren't as interesting, but I would buy a new car instead of a used one just for the perceived improved safety. I don't know if there's any research showing that these features actuall…

Most of the improvements are invisible. Better crumbing zones, better shock absorption, better composite materials. If you watch crash test of a modern car Vs 10-y old car, the later is significantly more dangerous. 20+ year old? Basically a death trap.

The number of deaths per 1 million miles driven hasn't dropped in the past 10 years so that puts a huge dent in your theory. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in...

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#525

Post by epistasis »

artificialLimbs wrote: post #458
throwawayboise wrote: post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are actually useful vehicles in rural places.

This thread is filled with ignorant city boys who have never done any useful farm work. I cannot imagine how excrutiating it would be for my wife to have to pay a bunch of stupid taxes and follow a bunch of fascist new laws in order to grow her 100sq ft garden every year which, even so small, STILL requires truckloads of compost and mulch since we are just in the process of building our soil. And that's just for the…

Lol, one would have to be an "ignorant city boy" to believe your claims here, don't BS us.

We are talking about the poorly designed showboats that do nothing to improve hauling capacity or utility. In my experience, I'd vastly prefer a lower bed for any of the tasks you mention. The extended crew cabs, stubby beds, and jacked to hell trucks are for aesthetics, not hauling mulch.

Plus you don't even seem to realize the distinction, just emotionally (and perhaps intentionally?) misunderstand what is under discussion.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#526

Post by CharlesW »

ArkanExplorer wrote: post #498
nostromo wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is largely a result of just-in-time manufacturing. Companies hate holding on to inventory. Most companies now don’t hold on to any extra stock needed to manufacture their products. This is great for your finances in normal times. But don’t complain when there is a shortage and you literally have zero slack for delays and your factory sits idle — that’s the well-known drawback.

No, this is the result of people like Neill Ferguson forecasting that COVID would be multiple times worse than it turned out to be, and Governments and the media believing him. For example this report from March 2020 was highly influential and predicted 2.2 million deaths in the US in an 'unmitigated epidemic' scenario: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... When in reality the official COVID…

> For example this report from March 2020 was highly influential and predicted 2.2 million deaths in the US in an 'unmitigated epidemic' scenario:

You just said yourself that the 2.2 million was the "do nothing" scenario, and as we've seen in India it could've easily been that. You also just said said we did many things — "unusual and unjustified" things, in your opinion — therefore mitigating that worst-case projection. I personally lost the point you were trying in these self-contradictions, but I am curious where you were going.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#527

Post by Nasrudith »

bluedino wrote: post #213
bredren wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since 14% of renters are behind on rent and evictions begin June 30, aren’t vehicle repossessions going to kick in July / August? Presumably, due in part to eviction protection, they have been able to divert all or a portion of their rent payments to keeping up with bad car loans for commute vehicles that often will not be needed. These folks need them for housing unfortunately. If repossessed cars start showing up t…

>> Since 14% of renters are behind on rent and evictions begin June 30, aren’t vehicle repossessions going to kick in July / August? Americans will pay their car loan before their rent.

You can sleep in your car but you can't drive your house or apartment.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#528

Post by Nasrudith »

fatbird wrote: post #263
samfisher83 wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its the whole JIT inventories stuff they preach in business school. Toyota actually stocked enough chips to handle something like this.

I'm starting to think historians will look back at our age and say "it was the MBAs who doomed them", much the same way that historians look at China's history and point to an excess of court eunechs as the reason this or that dynasty fell.

The eunechs being blamed was mostly a "polite" fiction as they had no descendants to offend, especially important if the same dynasty is in place. Badmouthing the current emperor's ancestors isn't good for your health.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#529

Post by cortesoft »

mort96 wrote: post #493
cortesoft wrote: post #480

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can see the definition of a shortage here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shortage The tl;dr is that a shortage is when there are people who are willing to pay more than the market price for an item but something is preventing the market from raising prices.. either because of laws against price gouging, price caps, or because manufacturers have some other incentive not to raise prices.

So to be clear: You wouldn't consider my food shortage example to be a "shortage", as long as nothing is preventing the market from raising prices to meet the demand? Because if that's the case, then that's okay. We're not actually disagreeing on anything substantial, we're just using different definitions of the word "shortage". It seems like this is perfectly summed up by this paragraph from the wikipedia page you…

It is within the common usage of the term, yes, but not the technical usage.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#530

Post by Animats »

o-__-o wrote: post #316
Animats wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All modern cars have amazing new features. Oh yes. Remote monitoring, tracking for advertising, contact list stealing through the USB charger port...

My cars have no such remote monitoring or tracking outside of government regulation (airbag crash sensor recording). Is this going to turn into an Apple vs Google phone style debate? Let’s stop before it gets there; Buy from a company that respects your privacy, but be prepared to spend more. Also all of your other ten year old hardware probably has vulnerabilities you are not aware of as well

My cars have no such remote monitoring or tracking outside of government regulation (airbag crash sensor recording)

There was a time when people were worried about that as a privacy invasion. Even though, to access it, someone has to dig into the wreckage and retrieve the recorder. And all it yields is details of the last 30 seconds before the crash.

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