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The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

cnbc.com

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Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#391

Post by throwawayboise »

christkv wrote: post #342
smiley1437 wrote: post #58

Interestingly, there is an embedded video in that article that explains the issue specific to the automotive shortage - it's because the automotive industry cancelled a lot of chip orders in anticipation of low vehicle demand and that caused chip makers to reduce their production for the kinds of chips that go into cars, and now it takes time to ramp back up: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/03/02/how-the-global-compu…

They also seem to point the finger towards hoarding by electronics companies in china to prepare for possible future sanctions.

It does highlight the problem with having the origins of your supply chains in a potentially unfriendly country.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#392

Post by minhazm »

fy20 wrote: post #386
epistasis wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, the size of these trucks has completely put me off ever wanting one. I miss the small ones from a few decades ago... great for surfing, hauling the ver occasional bit of stuff, just as useful as the ugly beasts of today but far cheaper and more maneuverable and safer. I think we need to start requiring commercial drivers licenses on some of these beasts. They are intentionally designed to be difficult to see ou…

> I think we need to start requiring commercial drivers licenses on some of these beasts. In the EU the maximum authorized mass (US: GVWR) you can drive with a standard car license is 3500kg or 7700lbs. That means for some models of the F150 you do need a commercial license.

There are no F150 models in the US that weight 7700 lbs or even close to it. The heaviest one is 5517 lbs.

https://media.ford.com/content/dam/fordmedia/North%20America...

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#393

Post by ev1 »

bredren wrote: post #246
mywittyname wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. Whether your into sports cars or fuel efficient cars, both categories have meaningfully improved over the past few years. For sports cars, there's a number of 500,600,700hp cars on the market. Corvettes went mid engine (2020), Miatas lost 400lbs of weight(2016), Mustangs/Camaros/Chargers are now 460+HP (2018ish), a VW Golf R will hit 60MPH in 4 seconds with a 2.0L motor, and that's not even getting into T…

I'm sure people who pay attention to cars and their performance would agree. And I think many cars will sell. But I think "meaningfully improved" is in the eye of the beholder. Steve Jobs' one more thing for iPod gen five included the exclamation "calendars never looked better!" You look at the slide he has behind him and it looks ridiculous. How useful was that calendar, how silly does that look now? What is the mea…

> What is the meaning of 0 to 60 in 4 seconds when there's traffic anyway?

I take public transit and don't own a car ($500/m parking, insane insurance rates in SF, cars broken into within minutes in daylight), but drive rentals/carshare-by-hour periodically. Merging and accelerating onto a freeway from a rate limited entryway stopped to 60 is somewhat useful while keeping up with flow.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#394

Post by throwawayboise »

dehrmann wrote: post #327
infogulch wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or are modern pickup-pedestrian accidents more deadly than other classes of cars?

This will be a weird number because I rarely see pickups in urban centers with lots of pedestrians, but I see them all the time in rural places.

They are actually useful vehicles in rural places.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#395

Post by dan-robertson »

seltzered_ wrote: post #170

Regarding cars: "Some carmakers are now leaving out high-end features as a result of the chip shortage, according to a Bloomberg report on Thursday. Nissan is reportedly leaving navigation systems out of cars that would normally have them, while Ram Trucks has stopped equipping its 1500 pickups with a standard “intelligent” rearview mirror that monitors for blind spots" I have an unpopular opinion, especially when we…

The hertz bankruptcy was just weird. My understanding of it: They have massive loans with their cars as collateral, when the pandemic started, used cars went down in value so their creditors margin-called them. Hertz didn’t have the money and couldn’t come to an agreement so filed for bankruptcy. Used cars returned to more normal values so hertz isn’t really insolvent anymore so will probably get to survive bankruptcy.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#396

Post by ineedasername »

chrisseaton wrote: post #293
heisenbit wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

0% loan on the sticker price. The goal of coming in with cash is to get as far as possible below the sticker price.

This is a really common misconception that buyers have. Just stop and think for a second - put yourself in the dealer's shoes - why do you think the dealer would want cash? No reason. They don't want your cash. A cash buyer is a pain. They want to sell you a loan. The last time I bought a car I offered cash, and they countered with a four-figure discount (on total cost of ownership) if I took part of it as a loan. I…

Yes, if you're going to cash buy, you can frequently get a better deal off the sticker price by agreeing to finance and then simply paying the loan off. How you structure things really depends on priorities though. Normally I buy the car (through financing) but right now I prioritized low monthly payments during financial uncertainty, so I leased. If things are different in three years, we'll either buy a new car or buyout the lease-- I made sure the lease buyout price was something we would be comfortable with: the TCO came out to only a little more than if we financed a purchase w/ higher immediate monthly payments, and I judged that a slightly higher TCO is worth the current ability to keep monthly expenses to a minimum.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#397

Post by 11thEarlOfMar »

whatgoodisaroad wrote: post #389

A little afraid to ask what may be an obvious question, but what exactly does the shortage consist of? Computer chips aren't generally interchangeable and I assume they're mostly purpose-built. Is there a shortage of raw materials? Or is there a drop in fab capacity?

It's pretty straightforward. The demand for chips increased much faster than the manufacturers could increase capacity and meet demand.

The COVID shift in working, socializing and learning from in-person to digital drove a huge demand spike for computers and telecommunications gear. The chip fabs hit capacity and it takes a long time to increase capacity. The equipment companies are running flat out to ship additional equipment, but so far, the fabs haven't gotten back to equilibrium.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#398

Post by heftig »

minhazm wrote: post #392
fy20 wrote: post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think we need to start requiring commercial drivers licenses on some of these beasts. In the EU the maximum authorized mass (US: GVWR) you can drive with a standard car license is 3500kg or 7700lbs. That means for some models of the F150 you do need a commercial license.

There are no F150 models in the US that weight 7700 lbs or even close to it. The heaviest one is 5517 lbs. https://media.ford.com/content/dam/fordmedia/North%20America...

It's not dry vehicle weight that counts. GCWR must not be above 3500 kg for the basic car driver's license.

PS: Actually, the limits for the basic German driver's license (B) are: Max GVWR of 3500 kg. With trailer, if GTWR not above 750 kg, no GCWR restriction, otherwise max GCWR of 3500 kg.

There's an extended license (BE) for max GTWR of 3500 kg and no GCWR restriction. (Max GVWR still 3500 kg.)

https://www.adac.de/verkehr/rund-um-den-fuehrerschein/klasse... (German text).

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#399

Post by saalweachter »

minhazm wrote: post #392
fy20 wrote: post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think we need to start requiring commercial drivers licenses on some of these beasts. In the EU the maximum authorized mass (US: GVWR) you can drive with a standard car license is 3500kg or 7700lbs. That means for some models of the F150 you do need a commercial license.

There are no F150 models in the US that weight 7700 lbs or even close to it. The heaviest one is 5517 lbs. https://media.ford.com/content/dam/fordmedia/North%20America...

The curb weight of the F150 tops out at ~5000 pounds, the GVWR [which is what it is when full of people and stuff] tops out at ~7000 pounds.

The F250 line tops out at a curb weight of ~7500 lbs with a GVWR of an even 10,000.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#400

Post by Der_Einzige »

ineedasername wrote: post #315
Der_Einzige wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Car sales have been through the roof this entire pandemic. Car sales people haven't had to listen to customers "negotiate" in over a year (because the answer is always to take the higher than MSRP offer or pound sand since 20 others will) . I couldn't get a single salesperson to budge even 500$ across no less than 10 Lexus dealerships on anything at all. Car sales people are doing the best they have ever done during…

I don't know where you're getting this impression from, but sales figures do no support your opinion. Sales were down about 15% in 2020, [0] and that was with a normal first quarter and sales inching back up in the 4th quarter. For large parts of 2020 sales were down as much as 40%. Your experience with Lexus dealerships is not generalizable to the whole industry. The economic fallout of 2020 was not evenly distribut…

https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a35695042/car-sales-tanked...

https://www.autonews.com/dealers/dealer-profits-surge-48-rec...

Doesn't matter if net car sales were down - dealerships of all kinds were hitting ALL TIME HIGHS for profits in 2020 everywhere as a result of huge markups brought on by massive demand. So I stand corrected, dealer profits are up, not car sales - point is that car sales people are not in need of our sympathy at this moment.

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