The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences • Hacker News Board

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#291

Post by nostromo » Sun, May 09, 2021, 5:23 PM UTC

neltnerb wrote: post #193

smiley1437 wrote: post #58

Interestingly, there is an embedded video in that article that explains the issue specific to the automotive shortage - it's because the automotive industry cancelled a lot of chip orders in anticipation of low vehicle demand and that caused chip makers to reduce their production for the kinds of chips that go into cars, and now it takes time to ramp back up: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/03/02/how-the-global-compu…

I get that this is a potential big problem, but I had to stop reading when the dog washing company blamed needing to respin a new board on a chip being out of stock due to this. I'm sorry, but if you aren't buying enough chips to build all the boards you want to build of a revision, this is just what happens, chip shortage or no. Stuff gets obsoleted all the time, it doesn't take a chip shortage. Blaming a black swan…

This is largely a result of just-in-time manufacturing.

Companies hate holding on to inventory. Most companies now don’t hold on to any extra stock needed to manufacture their products.

This is great for your finances in normal times. But don’t complain when there is a shortage and you literally have zero slack for delays and your factory sits idle — that’s the well-known drawback.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#292

Post by varjag » Sun, May 09, 2021, 5:25 PM UTC

ndiddy wrote: post #262

neltnerb wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get that this is a potential big problem, but I had to stop reading when the dog washing company blamed needing to respin a new board on a chip being out of stock due to this. I'm sorry, but if you aren't buying enough chips to build all the boards you want to build of a revision, this is just what happens, chip shortage or no. Stuff gets obsoleted all the time, it doesn't take a chip shortage. Blaming a black swan…

Chips don't suddenly get obsoleted though, they get put in "not recommended for new designs" for at least a year or two beforehand, and when the chip maker plans to phase the chip out they typically give a "last time buy" notice at least a month or two before it gets discontinued.

The normal courtesy for LTB is a year, often 18 months.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#293

Post by chrisseaton » Sun, May 09, 2021, 5:26 PM UTC

heisenbit wrote: post #243

mywittyname wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They've been low for a while now too. As annoying as it is to have a $670 car payment each month, you really can't beat 0% interest on a $40k loan. Especially in a market where the average monthly return on $40k in stocks has been pretty substantial.

0% loan on the sticker price. The goal of coming in with cash is to get as far as possible below the sticker price.

This is a really common misconception that buyers have.

Just stop and think for a second - put yourself in the dealer's shoes - why do you think the dealer would want cash? No reason. They don't want your cash. A cash buyer is a pain. They want to sell you a loan.

The last time I bought a car I offered cash, and they countered with a four-figure discount (on total cost of ownership) if I took part of it as a loan. I now have that part of the price invested, creating money, while I gradually pay the loan.

And my credit score went up as I had a new, responsible loan!

Cash buyers are fools, unless you're really at the point of valuing not having a loan for moral reasons (maybe a German?) at four-figures.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#294

Post by anigbrowl » Sun, May 09, 2021, 5:26 PM UTC

nradov wrote: post #185

seltzered_ wrote: post #170

Regarding cars: "Some carmakers are now leaving out high-end features as a result of the chip shortage, according to a Bloomberg report on Thursday. Nissan is reportedly leaving navigation systems out of cars that would normally have them, while Ram Trucks has stopped equipping its 1500 pickups with a standard “intelligent” rearview mirror that monitors for blind spots" I have an unpopular opinion, especially when we…

Smaller trucks are available for those who want them. Most buyers prefer larger trucks.

Where are they? Look at these explicitly 'small trucks': https://www.motortrend.com/news/best-small-trucks/

What am I supposed to search for, small small trucks? Trucks that are actually small? Looking for cheap trucks still delivers large vehicles, just with fewer features: https://www.motortrend.com/news/cheapest-pickup-trucks-frill...

I even searched 'smallest trucks' and...guess what. The Honda Ridgeline seems like the most compact but they're all pretty chunky. https://www.web2carz.com/autos/buying-and-selling/8257/these...

If you suggest used trucks, that just shores up the point that manufacturers keep building bigger trucks. Please show us these small trucks of which you speak, even if they're more expensive or whatever.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#295

Post by ericbarrett » Sun, May 09, 2021, 5:27 PM UTC

systemvoltage wrote: post #271

istjohn wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree, but there would be a political shitstorm if you tried to take away their trucks.

Trucks are vehicles. How can they be political? I know plenty of people from all kinds of backgrounds owning a truck.

"Rolling coal" (modifying a diesel engine to run rich and increase soot in the exhaust, a.k.a. incompletely combusted fuel) has become a statement in many places of the U.S. that you are opposed to the EPA, clean air rules, regulation, and in general the perceived nanny state.

My friend is a Tesla owner in Georgia and has been deliberately blasted by these guys at stoplights a few times. They tried, anyway—hard to do this to a car with superior acceleration and a HEPA cabin filter.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolling_coal

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#296

Post by bluGill » Sun, May 09, 2021, 5:29 PM UTC

neltnerb wrote: post #193

smiley1437 wrote: post #58

Interestingly, there is an embedded video in that article that explains the issue specific to the automotive shortage - it's because the automotive industry cancelled a lot of chip orders in anticipation of low vehicle demand and that caused chip makers to reduce their production for the kinds of chips that go into cars, and now it takes time to ramp back up: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/03/02/how-the-global-compu…

I get that this is a potential big problem, but I had to stop reading when the dog washing company blamed needing to respin a new board on a chip being out of stock due to this. I'm sorry, but if you aren't buying enough chips to build all the boards you want to build of a revision, this is just what happens, chip shortage or no. Stuff gets obsoleted all the time, it doesn't take a chip shortage. Blaming a black swan…

Chips shouldn't go obsolete so fast. Your local auto parts store has in stock parts for cars made 50 years ago. That include aftermarket parts made in the past few years.

You cannot support right to repair if you support the idea that chips go obsolete.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#297

Post by nradov » Sun, May 09, 2021, 5:30 PM UTC

heisenbit wrote: post #243

mywittyname wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They've been low for a while now too. As annoying as it is to have a $670 car payment each month, you really can't beat 0% interest on a $40k loan. Especially in a market where the average monthly return on $40k in stocks has been pretty substantial.

0% loan on the sticker price. The goal of coming in with cash is to get as far as possible below the sticker price.

It's actually the opposite. Most franchise dealers get incentives for financing through the manufacturer's captive lender, so you can often negotiate a slightly better deal by taking a loan.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#298

Post by logicalmonster » Sun, May 09, 2021, 5:31 PM UTC

huseyinkeles wrote: post #159

rightbyte wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many products like water boilers, ovens or toasters can be built more robust without digital chips. I would argue we would see a overall quality improvement from having a bad chip shortage.

Genuine question: how is the lack of digital chips going to make a toaster more robust?

As an easy answer: the fewer parts there are, usually the less there is to potentially break down.

A more classic style of toaster can be as simple as a heating element that's triggered by some kind of mechanical timer you set contained within some kind of container. There's much less that can possibly break down with age and burn out. There's no internal sensors, multiple buttons and electronics that can burn out, maybe some sort of WiFi component that might mess up, and more that can go wrong.

Additionally with fewer parts, the manufacturing quality can hypothetically (but not always) be better. It seems easier to get the manufacturing right on a machine with 10 separate components versus say 60.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#299

Post by anotha1 » Sun, May 09, 2021, 5:33 PM UTC

istjohn wrote: post #192

epistasis wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, the size of these trucks has completely put me off ever wanting one. I miss the small ones from a few decades ago... great for surfing, hauling the ver occasional bit of stuff, just as useful as the ugly beasts of today but far cheaper and more maneuverable and safer. I think we need to start requiring commercial drivers licenses on some of these beasts. They are intentionally designed to be difficult to see ou…

I don't disagree, but there would be a political shitstorm if you tried to take away their trucks.

True. In Florida, 1/3 of trucks are raised so there occupants have to literally climb in. These are commonly adorn with "Trump" and "Don't tread on me" bumper stickers and even massive flags (because you know, big truck means big flag...)

I once drove one to move something (the cab/bed being five feet off the ground wasn't as helpful as you'd think \s). The experience was somewhat surreal, like driving in an air traffic control tower. Much different than a u-haul (my only other trucking experience).

Edit: oh yeah, they do this to go "mudding" (drinking and driving in a giant muddy mess with guns, so much fun!).

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#300

Post by washadjeffmad » Sun, May 09, 2021, 5:34 PM UTC

robomartin wrote: post #285

neltnerb wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get that this is a potential big problem, but I had to stop reading when the dog washing company blamed needing to respin a new board on a chip being out of stock due to this. I'm sorry, but if you aren't buying enough chips to build all the boards you want to build of a revision, this is just what happens, chip shortage or no. Stuff gets obsoleted all the time, it doesn't take a chip shortage. Blaming a black swan…

> I had to stop reading when the dog washing company blamed needing to respin a new board on a chip being out of stock due to this ... > if you aren't buying enough chips to build all the boards you want to build of a revision Friendly advice: If you are going to be a consultant to industry, don't post comments like this. As someone who has been manufacturing tech products for over thirty years, my first reaction to…

That's a tale as old as time to anyone who weathered the great recession, and I can deeply sympathize.

You've highlighted exactly the value and difference experience makes. People born at the crest of the wave can only take for granted their position until they have lived enough to reflect.