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The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

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Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#361
post #272
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since 14% of renters are behind on rent and evictions begin June 30, aren’t vehicle repossessions going to kick in July / August? Presumably, due in part to eviction protection, they have been able to divert all or a portion of their rent payments to keeping up with bad car loans for commute vehicles that often will not be needed. These folks need them for housing unfortunately. If repossessed cars start showing up t…

It’s hard to predict, even if only a couple of months ahead. As the economy picks up a lot of people who had rent relief may have some sort of income, perhaps enough to push them positively over the line. Not all of the renters on relief, obviously, but perhaps enough to chop the number of actual car repossessions significantly. Separately, I suspect that quite a few of the ppl who had rent relief had cars that, let’…

> Separately, I suspect that quite a few of the ppl who had rent relief had cars that, let’s just say, wouldn’t be highly sought in he used vehicle market.

Perhaps.

Vehicles have been pushed in every medium as status symbols. Creative financing options and cheaper insurance have allowed those affected by this to continue to participate. It isn’t just new cars but expensive restoration and customization of old ones.

I think this is beginning to fall away, in part because young people do not rely on physical presence to gain and maintain social standing among their peers as much as they used to.

So a better phone camera matters more than nicer rims. Selfies in front of a fancy car get less likes than swimming next to a sea tortoise.

That said I think groups that have been economically disadvantaged over long periods of time process and integrate culture shifts like this more slowly.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many of these features add minimal benefit if you do some common-sense stuff such as, don't drive when you're really tired (or drunk, or on drugs, etc.); don't play with your phone while you're driving; don't read, do your makeup, shave, etc. while you're driving. IOW put your focus on the task at hand and you don't really need blind spot detectors. Of course the reality is that people are pretty bad at these things.

I found them invaluable, especially BSM saved me from a lot of near-crash situations. When dealing with fast deadly chunks of metal every % of reduced chance of death is a good investment in my book.

How many serious crashes or near-serious-crashes were you in in your prior cars without BSM? Assuming no other changes, that seems the most realistic measure of risk reduction.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#363

My wife just needed to get a new car, and the salesman was complaining that just as demand was starting to increase the chip shortage means they're barely getting any new ones in stock. And of course the popular models are the ones that are selling out the fastest, meaning people are holding off on purchases because they can't get what they want. My wife's was one of maybe 8 in the entire state that had the features…

I change a car every few years and this year is the time. So while I have been looking at what can I get now, I found that my current car is worth more now than when I bought it used 3 years ago. Crazy...

So keep it. Many posters here might be happy to buy your "old" car and drive it another 4-6 years. Do it yourself.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#364
I've eyeing a gaming PC for a while. I game, do music production, amd also do i die game dev. If I buy an all in one I'll pay a $500 premium but I'll be able to actually acquire all the components.

Hackernews, please tell me: should I pull the trigger before it's too late, or hold off for the panic to subside?

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#365

Interestingly, there is an embedded video in that article that explains the issue specific to the automotive shortage - it's because the automotive industry cancelled a lot of chip orders in anticipation of low vehicle demand and that caused chip makers to reduce their production for the kinds of chips that go into cars, and now it takes time to ramp back up: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/03/02/how-the-global-compu…

I get that this is a potential big problem, but I had to stop reading when the dog washing company blamed needing to respin a new board on a chip being out of stock due to this. I'm sorry, but if you aren't buying enough chips to build all the boards you want to build of a revision, this is just what happens, chip shortage or no. Stuff gets obsoleted all the time, it doesn't take a chip shortage. Blaming a black swan…

> I get that this is a potential big problem, but I had to stop reading when the dog washing company blamed needing to respin a new board on a chip being out of stock due to this.

What you are suggesting is quite impractical, unless you are a really big business with cash, which can simply direct order components.

Small businesses, even in Shenzhen, a place inundated with supply chain abundance, always have to either keep running from one small wholesaler, to another searching for components, or pay n-times the price working with somebody like Arrow.

In my experience, you can't safeguard yourself against such things as a small company no matter what.

I worked in, and around OEM electronics since 2007, and things like having to redesign a product 4 times a year to accommodate a supply chain disruption were happening even in the best years. Nothing special with the current disruption besides the scale.

This is also the reason why Asian electronics makers have such short product lifetimes. It's usually easier just to sunset a product, and make an improved, and better version with newer components, than to fight against the always evolving supply chain. And I not talking about small companies, ASUS, Acer, MSI, and such all practice this.

I know few people running the Chuwi brand. What they do as a small maker is that the moment the get a good consignment of chipsets, and other parts, they spin a laptop model solely for that batch alone.

Then, they live off it until they get another good parts purchase, when they usually sell their component leftovers, or do few final runs if they can find people wanting to buy them for rebadging.

The entirety of small volume laptop industry spins around chipsets, and screens — hardest things to find for a small company.

I want you people to take a looks on a big difference in how companies in the West, and here handle the crisis: Western brands wail, cry, and wait for component supplies to resume, while Asian brands just keep releasing new products with parts coming into their hands, and making great cash from this shortage.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#367
post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get that this is a potential big problem, but I had to stop reading when the dog washing company blamed needing to respin a new board on a chip being out of stock due to this. I'm sorry, but if you aren't buying enough chips to build all the boards you want to build of a revision, this is just what happens, chip shortage or no. Stuff gets obsoleted all the time, it doesn't take a chip shortage. Blaming a black swan…

I'm very loosely involved in the highly customized keyboard business, think runs of a couple hundred units. One vendor is having trouble finding any chip to design for. The software stack supports a couple of dozen STM32 chip series, but none of them are even remotely available. I've seen a lead time of over 11 months. Before COVID, pretty much every single chip was in stock almost all of the time. Respinning a board…

> Respinning a board isn't too difficult, but good luck doing that if there's no chip to respin it for.

Some people hoard toilet paper, some people hoard baby formula, some people hoard Shanghai apartments, some people hoard microchips...

Got burned with same STM32s recently. A purchaser been shopping parts, and ordered a given model of MCU by muscle memory. The price has moved one zero overnight, and we ran for quite a sum.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#368
post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I finished writing that comment (and I truly tried to be constructive as the author is young and inexperienced) I remembered another traumatic event of that era. Every order we received was like precious molecules of much needed oxygen. We got this order from one of our resellers (we had about fifty all over the world at the time) for about half a million dollars in product. This needs to be in the right context:…

Maybe the real lesson of the whole thread is to require customers to pay in advance with a non-reversible wire transfer, or at least via an escrow service contingent on delivering the goods. Or alternatively, somehow buy insurance against the customer failing to pay.

If you can find a customer who will pay in advance on product with (reportedly) 40+ weeks lead time, then you've found a customer who will probably be insolvent by the time you ship

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#369
post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I finished writing that comment (and I truly tried to be constructive as the author is young and inexperienced) I remembered another traumatic event of that era. Every order we received was like precious molecules of much needed oxygen. We got this order from one of our resellers (we had about fifty all over the world at the time) for about half a million dollars in product. This needs to be in the right context:…

Maybe the real lesson of the whole thread is to require customers to pay in advance with a non-reversible wire transfer, or at least via an escrow service contingent on delivering the goods. Or alternatively, somehow buy insurance against the customer failing to pay.

You are not going to find any sizable player who will agree to immediate payment. Even getting someone to agree net 30 can be pulling teeth from time to time.

This war was fought decades ago. Just-in-time production won, and it was a decisive victory. This chip shortage is rough, but nowhere near as rough as it would be if we weren't doing things the way we are right now. Everything that has happened has happened for a reason. Attempting to disrupt this will put you in way over your head in ways you couldn't imagine.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a really common misconception that buyers have. Just stop and think for a second - put yourself in the dealer's shoes - why do you think the dealer would want cash? No reason. They don't want your cash. A cash buyer is a pain. They want to sell you a loan. The last time I bought a car I offered cash, and they countered with a four-figure discount (on total cost of ownership) if I took part of it as a loan. I…

And if you had walked out the door they would have run after you to take the cash deal AND given you the discount. You think they prefer to deal with the time and uncertainty of putting you through a loan application, when they could pocket the same sale in cash? Nobody is coming out with less money on a loan purchase vs. cash, except the buyer.

You simply don't understand how modern franchise dealers operate. Cash discounts are no longer a thing. Due to incentives they prefer to finance through the manufacturer's captive lender. The F&I guy is already sitting there in his office with nothing else to do and as long as you have a decent credit score the approval process takes literally a few minutes.

Sure the dealer will take cash if that's how you want to pay but you're not getting any extra discount.

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