The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences • Hacker News Board

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#311

Post by shitpostbot » Sun, May 09, 2021, 5:53 PM UTC

smiley1437 wrote: post #58

Interestingly, there is an embedded video in that article that explains the issue specific to the automotive shortage - it's because the automotive industry cancelled a lot of chip orders in anticipation of low vehicle demand and that caused chip makers to reduce their production for the kinds of chips that go into cars, and now it takes time to ramp back up: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/03/02/how-the-global-compu…

I'm about 95% sure the constant wave of chip shortage news is actually the U.S. semiconductor industry astroturfing to establish a narrative about their critical role in the economy, with the end goal being favorable governemtent regulations or even direct subsidies.

Not that that it isn't true that they are important or anything. But this feels inorganic and the real shortage is just in the limited availability of cutting edge processor nodes. The automakers just kinda misplanned and thats getting spun hard

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#312

Post by pfranz » Sun, May 09, 2021, 5:53 PM UTC

ineedasername wrote: post #250

musingsole wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, but car sales ain't it. Carvana and similar are such a better experience than dealing with a salesperson whose incentive and words you have to interrogate. I'd wager that salespeople will be needed only for high ticket price, high risk deals where trust is critical in getting the job done. Anything else that can be made transactional will be and the associated sales jobs will be lost.

Carvana etc are not full service though. You can't go test drive in advance. Also, dealerships are tightly linked to manufacturers, very similar to other franchises, and the incentives are in the manufacturers' favor for the existing model: there's relatively little profit, especially considering the overhead, in selling the car itself. The profit center is in servicing the cars at the dealership service center: The…

I've never heard of Carvana, but test drives aren't something we should need dealerships for. Having 1 or 2 cars of each is all you need. Technically a low-end model would be fine, but I can see them only offering the highest end model to upsell features. Then you do what brick-and-mortars have complained about for years and order exactly what you want online.

Personally, I think renting a car for a medium term is way better than test driving. It's the Pepsi Challenge problem. If you can buy a new car, drop down a hundred or two to see how your commute works, how easy it is to park at home, etc.

Sure, dealerships have a rats-nest relationship that would be hard to untangle. Looking at the history I don't think manufacturers care about them them and you can run a repair shop without it.

> service is the key.

I get what you mean about certain aspects, but I would not describe the process of buying a car in that way. If you walk in with cash in hand and pointing to a car it will take 4 hours and you will be coerced into paying for something you didn't want.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#313

Post by baybal2 » Sun, May 09, 2021, 5:54 PM UTC

pbourke wrote: post #280

baybal2 wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Is that possible? I haven't crunched the numbers and I don't have enough information or context to do so accurately. But my gut says that it might depend on how many billionaires you're on good terms with. 130nm is quite ancient, but there are digital parts from early nineties still on the market. They are way bigger than 130nm. Right now I have an ongoing project with a company making aircons. Their kit supplier u…

> but the kit supplier itself can't migrate from Hitachi MCU because they don't have firmware sources as they themselves only copypasted the firmware as a binary for decades.. That’s seems like a rather existential problem. If I’m understanding correctly, the kit supplier makes the control board and the manufacturer does final assembly?

Yes, and the Chinese kit supplier seemingly got the tech from a Japanese aircon maker somewhere in nineties, and then copied the board verbatim ever since.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#314

Post by jiveturkey » Sun, May 09, 2021, 5:55 PM UTC

brink wrote: post #18

Let's hope we start making chips domestically after this.

?? exporting the toxic waste and slave labor has made the electronics revolution possible

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#315

Post by ineedasername » Sun, May 09, 2021, 5:55 PM UTC

Der_Einzige wrote: post #196

ineedasername wrote: post #138

My wife just needed to get a new car, and the salesman was complaining that just as demand was starting to increase the chip shortage means they're barely getting any new ones in stock. And of course the popular models are the ones that are selling out the fastest, meaning people are holding off on purchases because they can't get what they want. My wife's was one of maybe 8 in the entire state that had the features…

Car sales have been through the roof this entire pandemic. Car sales people haven't had to listen to customers "negotiate" in over a year (because the answer is always to take the higher than MSRP offer or pound sand since 20 others will) . I couldn't get a single salesperson to budge even 500$ across no less than 10 Lexus dealerships on anything at all. Car sales people are doing the best they have ever done during…

I don't know where you're getting this impression from, but sales figures do no support your opinion. Sales were down about 15% in 2020, [0] and that was with a normal first quarter and sales inching back up in the 4th quarter. For large parts of 2020 sales were down as much as 40%.

Your experience with Lexus dealerships is not generalizable to the whole industry. The economic fallout of 2020 was not evenly distributed, and the only thing your personal experience tells me is that the audience for luxury cars may have had the better end of things last year.

[0] https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/wheels/news/2020...

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#316

Post by o-__-o » Sun, May 09, 2021, 5:55 PM UTC

Animats wrote: post #278

o-__-o wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All modern cars have amazing new features. Air bags, reverse cameras, steering by wire, ABS, direct fuel injection, massively boosted turbocharged engines (on econoboxes!) and traction control as standard. My 7 year old car has all of the above and can park itself, has adaptive cruise control, and for $400 I added a 12” touch screen stereo. Compared to my last car, my current car outputs up to 20psi of boost compared…

All modern cars have amazing new features. Oh yes. Remote monitoring, tracking for advertising, contact list stealing through the USB charger port...

My cars have no such remote monitoring or tracking outside of government regulation (airbag crash sensor recording). Is this going to turn into an Apple vs Google phone style debate? Let’s stop before it gets there; Buy from a company that respects your privacy, but be prepared to spend more.

Also all of your other ten year old hardware probably has vulnerabilities you are not aware of as well

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#317

Post by SilasX » Sun, May 09, 2021, 5:56 PM UTC

chrisseaton wrote: post #293

heisenbit wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

0% loan on the sticker price. The goal of coming in with cash is to get as far as possible below the sticker price.

This is a really common misconception that buyers have. Just stop and think for a second - put yourself in the dealer's shoes - why do you think the dealer would want cash? No reason. They don't want your cash. A cash buyer is a pain. They want to sell you a loan. The last time I bought a car I offered cash, and they countered with a four-figure discount (on total cost of ownership) if I took part of it as a loan. I…

Yes, and the smart move there is to take the offer and pay it early, which is still stupid on the dealer's part.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#318

Post by x0x0 » Sun, May 09, 2021, 5:56 PM UTC

xyst wrote: post #303

This is what happens when the entire world relies on a few countries for manufacturing of computer chips. All manufactured goods should be produced and consumed in the same country. In theory, if the manufacturing is efficiently distributed the supply chain should be immune to the effects of a pandemic or even country specific issues. I am still baffled that an electronic device produced in some province of China and…

China is massively subsidizing local manufacturing, in at least two ways: currency stabilization and lack of / lack of enforcement of environmental protections.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#319

Post by ineedasername » Sun, May 09, 2021, 5:57 PM UTC

Animats wrote: post #278

o-__-o wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All modern cars have amazing new features. Air bags, reverse cameras, steering by wire, ABS, direct fuel injection, massively boosted turbocharged engines (on econoboxes!) and traction control as standard. My 7 year old car has all of the above and can park itself, has adaptive cruise control, and for $400 I added a 12” touch screen stereo. Compared to my last car, my current car outputs up to 20psi of boost compared…

All modern cars have amazing new features. Oh yes. Remote monitoring, tracking for advertising, contact list stealing through the USB charger port...

Maybe not always the good kind of amazing?

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#320

Post by cerved » Sun, May 09, 2021, 5:58 PM UTC

jfoster wrote: post #4

Why is there a shortage rather than a price hike, similar to what would happen with fuel? Long term contracts?

I suspect it's because fuel is a much more elastic product.

While you can't just throw up a new pump, you have lots of producers can increase their existing output.

Fuel doesn't change. The hydrocarbons pumped out 100 years ago still work fine. So it can be stored.

It's also a simple commodity. Basically everything runs on either gas, petrol or diesel. Not whatever ridiculous amount of chip variations.

But I'm not an economist so this is just a guess