The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences • Hacker News Board

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#241

Post by ajross » Sun, May 09, 2021, 4:37 PM UTC

xadhominemx wrote: post #195

ajross wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> why are there shortages for these basic chips? Can’t they be made anywhere, and more easily? Not really. Semiconductor fabs are built around "tools" from manufacturers like AMAT and Nikon. Those tool vendors make most of their money from selling new tools for fancy new processes, not supporting 20-year-old stuff. Eventually stuff breaks, and fabs have to offline these older processes. The way this works in the tech…

> Eventually stuff breaks, and fabs have to offline these older processes. Absolutely not. You just made this up.

The first is a statement of the third law of thermodynamics. The second clause is just obviously true. Go call up Fujitsu and try to order more of a chip they made for you in 1.5um in 1988.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#242

Post by MandieD » Sun, May 09, 2021, 4:38 PM UTC

ineedasername wrote: post #124

bredren wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since 14% of renters are behind on rent and evictions begin June 30, aren’t vehicle repossessions going to kick in July / August? Presumably, due in part to eviction protection, they have been able to divert all or a portion of their rent payments to keeping up with bad car loans for commute vehicles that often will not be needed. These folks need them for housing unfortunately. If repossessed cars start showing up t…

Most new cars still suck / Do not offer meaningful new features That really depends on how old your car is. I generally buy instead of lease, and run the car until it starts having regular problems. As a result, my car is 12 years old, and any new one from the last few years is a significant upgrade in terms of features. I don't really want a monthly car payment again, but I'm almost looking forward to when my curren…

We had a 2020 Corolla as a rental over Christmas/New Years 2019/20, and it was amazing. What we drive at home: a 2008 Ford Fiesta that my husband bought in 2013.

My only worry is that something will go wrong enough with it in the next year or so that we’d be compelled to get another car in this rather tight market, but otherwise, knowing that your car's current resale (and repurchase) value is approximately the secondary wage earner’s monthly after-tax income is liberating.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#243

Post by heisenbit » Sun, May 09, 2021, 4:38 PM UTC

mywittyname wrote: post #201

nradov wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Current low interest rates on car loans make that approach a bit pointless.

They've been low for a while now too. As annoying as it is to have a $670 car payment each month, you really can't beat 0% interest on a $40k loan. Especially in a market where the average monthly return on $40k in stocks has been pretty substantial.

0% loan on the sticker price. The goal of coming in with cash is to get as far as possible below the sticker price.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#244

Post by justapassenger » Sun, May 09, 2021, 4:38 PM UTC

bredren wrote: post #98

smiley1437 wrote: post #58

Interestingly, there is an embedded video in that article that explains the issue specific to the automotive shortage - it's because the automotive industry cancelled a lot of chip orders in anticipation of low vehicle demand and that caused chip makers to reduce their production for the kinds of chips that go into cars, and now it takes time to ramp back up: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/03/02/how-the-global-compu…

Since 14% of renters are behind on rent and evictions begin June 30, aren’t vehicle repossessions going to kick in July / August? Presumably, due in part to eviction protection, they have been able to divert all or a portion of their rent payments to keeping up with bad car loans for commute vehicles that often will not be needed. These folks need them for housing unfortunately. If repossessed cars start showing up t…

> Most new cars still suck / Do not offer meaningful new features.

In terms of bells and whistles? Yeah, not that much. But in terms of safety tech, there has been a huge progress in last 10 years and it’s not slowing down. New cars are not only getting harder to crash, but in case of crash they’re getting better and better at protecting you.

Safety is main reason why I update my cars every few years, even tho it’s pretty costly. But so is having my family seriously injured or killed.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#245

Post by varispeed » Sun, May 09, 2021, 4:40 PM UTC

It's weird that you can buy chips on Chinese sites in their thousands and western usual suppliers have no stock and the lead times are more than a year on some parts. Unfortunately you cannot just buy these Chinese parts and use in the products as they will likely have no certification or may even be fake. At least can be useful for prototyping although risky as well. I know many projects are on hold because of that.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#246

Post by bredren » Sun, May 09, 2021, 4:41 PM UTC

mywittyname wrote: post #219

bredren wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are in the iPod Video stage of individual car ownership.

I disagree. Whether your into sports cars or fuel efficient cars, both categories have meaningfully improved over the past few years. For sports cars, there's a number of 500,600,700hp cars on the market. Corvettes went mid engine (2020), Miatas lost 400lbs of weight(2016), Mustangs/Camaros/Chargers are now 460+HP (2018ish), a VW Golf R will hit 60MPH in 4 seconds with a 2.0L motor, and that's not even getting into T…

I'm sure people who pay attention to cars and their performance would agree. And I think many cars will sell.

But I think "meaningfully improved" is in the eye of the beholder.

Steve Jobs' one more thing for iPod gen five included the exclamation "calendars never looked better!"

You look at the slide he has behind him and it looks ridiculous. How useful was that calendar, how silly does that look now? What is the meaning of 0 to 60 in 4 seconds when there's traffic anyway? Isn't there a safer, less expensive way to get a rush than pushing a pedal with a foot?

I'm not arguing that these features you're describing viewed through the lens of today aren't meaningful. Breakout on iPod Video was cool too. But these improvements do not change the fundamental experience of personal transportation. They make it marginally better at best.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jyblf2P_q5Q

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#247

Post by mort96 » Sun, May 09, 2021, 4:41 PM UTC

cortesoft wrote: post #123

mort96 wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To me that just sounds like an indefinite microchip shortage.

Well, a lot of people would buy yachts if they were only $1000.... since the price will never get there, they will never get their yacht that they want. Does that mean there is a yacht shortage? If chip costs stay high, that just means that is how expensive chips are.

So what's your definition of a shortage then? We're in a situation where a lot of people who want microchips aren't able to buy them because the suppliers aren't able to produce enough of them. What is the difference between that and a shortage?

If we don't produce enough food for everyone to eat, we would be in a similar situation: the price would rise until only the people with the most money could afford food. We would call that a food shortage. Replace food with microchips and that's still a shortage, right? (Albeit a less dire one.)

Or do you follow an ideology where there is no such thing as a shortage, there is only the almighty supply and demand curve?

EDIT: To respond to the yacht thing: It's my understanding that the price of yacths aren't elevated because we're unable to produce enough of them. It is my understanding that yachts are expensive A) because producing them genuinely requires a lot of resources and B) because they're luxury goods which are priced according to their target market. If loads and loads of people suddenly started demanding yachts at their current price, and yacht factories weren't able to keep up with the demand, and the price of a yacht went up significantly due to supply constraints, I would certainly call that a "yacht shortage".

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#248

Post by tomrod » Sun, May 09, 2021, 4:41 PM UTC

dahfizz wrote: post #188

seltzered_ wrote: post #170

Regarding cars: "Some carmakers are now leaving out high-end features as a result of the chip shortage, according to a Bloomberg report on Thursday. Nissan is reportedly leaving navigation systems out of cars that would normally have them, while Ram Trucks has stopped equipping its 1500 pickups with a standard “intelligent” rearview mirror that monitors for blind spots" I have an unpopular opinion, especially when we…

I definitely agree that car size inflation is a real problem. Cars are too big and getting bigger every year. That said, "good visibility" is not a replacement for safety tech. The sensors and cameras in a car are always going to be better at spotting danger than a human for things like blind spot monitoring and backup cameras. You sound a bit like the teachers that would drill mental math because "you won't always h…

> Cars are too big and getting bigger every year.

/me waves from my tiny Corolla, slightly larger than my 2002 Prius, which a Camry has shrunk in size to meet relative to the 2009 model.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#249

Post by varispeed » Sun, May 09, 2021, 4:42 PM UTC

ferros wrote: post #3

> Production of low-margin processors, such as those used to weigh clothes in a washing machine or toast bread in a smart toaster, has also been hit. While most retailers are still able to get their hands on these products at the moment, they may face issues in the months ahead. I understand why the new advanced chips could face shortages, but why are there shortages for these basic chips. Can’t they be made anywhere…

It is a new Bitcoin for Chinese businessmen and they buy up all stocks and stockpile. If you go on Chinese sites, you can buy any chips you want even thousands of them. Of course you'll pay 10x the price and have a high chance getting a counterfeit product.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#250

Post by ineedasername » Sun, May 09, 2021, 4:42 PM UTC

musingsole wrote: post #225

istjohn wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a dead sibling comment stating that car sales won't be a job in 20 years. I would speculate that sales and other careers that are high-touch and relationship focused are precisely the kind of jobs that will be most resistant to automation.

Yeah, but car sales ain't it. Carvana and similar are such a better experience than dealing with a salesperson whose incentive and words you have to interrogate. I'd wager that salespeople will be needed only for high ticket price, high risk deals where trust is critical in getting the job done. Anything else that can be made transactional will be and the associated sales jobs will be lost.

Carvana etc are not full service though. You can't go test drive in advance. Also, dealerships are tightly linked to manufacturers, very similar to other franchises, and the incentives are in the manufacturers' favor for the existing model: there's relatively little profit, especially considering the overhead, in selling the car itself. The profit center is in servicing the cars at the dealership service center: The manufacturer has decent margins on parts and the dealership gets it's money on labor. Dealerships get a little extra in the points they take on financing, and higher margins selling used trade-in cars, but service is the key.

That is an extremely tight linkage between manufacturer, sales, financing, and service that will be very difficult to break.