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California population declines for first time in more than a century

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461–470 of 543 posts

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#461

i was born and raised in california. i left a year ago for the midwest. the situation in california is depressing. and im not talking about human poop or homeless people. im talking about jobs, culture and general lifestyle. california is filled with lots of very ugly urban wasteland. its filled with lots and lots of very disadvantaged people, hordes upon hordes of people who might not be homeless but are involved in…

Seems to me like you’re simply describing the average person.

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#462

People who live on the coasts really don’t understand how much of the Millennial existential angst is due to inability to buy a house and live a typical life. My wife went to the University of Iowa, and her friends who stayed in state all bought houses years ago. (We’re in our mid-30s.) Meanwhile few of our friends from law school (many of whom are by now moving up the ranks in their profession, are still trying to g…

This can only happen if the upper middle class people move away from somewhere else. There has to be some limit to how far away they'll commute to get access to suburban houses, right?

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#463

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't fabs require tons of water?

CA is next to the ocean with plenty of solar power potential. Fab water can also be recycled with some effort.

When we have >90% renewable energy, or maybe lots of peaking solar that goes unused, and desal plants driven by that renewable energy, I will happily support incentivizing chip fabrication.

But until then I have other priorities.

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#464

People who live on the coasts really don’t understand how much of the Millennial existential angst is due to inability to buy a house and live a typical life. My wife went to the University of Iowa, and her friends who stayed in state all bought houses years ago. (We’re in our mid-30s.) Meanwhile few of our friends from law school (many of whom are by now moving up the ranks in their profession, are still trying to g…

This can only happen if the upper middle class people move away from somewhere else. There has to be some limit to how far away they'll commute to get access to suburban houses, right?

I had thought we were safe out here, a good hour and fifteen minutes from DC in traffic. But remote working has overturned those expectations.

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#465

People who live on the coasts really don’t understand how much of the Millennial existential angst is due to inability to buy a house and live a typical life. My wife went to the University of Iowa, and her friends who stayed in state all bought houses years ago. (We’re in our mid-30s.) Meanwhile few of our friends from law school (many of whom are by now moving up the ranks in their profession, are still trying to g…

This can only happen if the upper middle class people move away from somewhere else. There has to be some limit to how far away they'll commute to get access to suburban houses, right?

This makes the question of how much covid-era remote work will remain remote (particularly for the highest-paid employees) particularly urgent.

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#466
post #403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. California has a rich delta, the San Joaquin River Delta, which is a natural rice growing region. People who are ignorant of geography, and think water is much more fungible than it is, would prefer that some small amount more of this water be expelled into the San Francisco Bay, as the great majority of it is already. Contrast with alfalfa, which is grown mostly from aquifer water in the Central Valley, constit…

Also people who are aware of the invention of aqueducts would prefer that agricultural use of water be priced the same as residential use, if water is to be the main argument in opposition to allowing the state's population to grow.

Water is absolutely no practical barrier to population growth in California.

It's a fake issue, made up to disguise a classic NIMBYist fear of changing "the character" of California.

Which, I've been to Yosemite recently, so I get that. But the ship sailed long ago.

California does have unsustainable agricultural practices. Alfalfa growing for feedlot cattle is the big one, eliminate that and Cali can in fact expand on her comparative advantage in growing fruits, nuts, and specialty crops like asparagus and artichoke.

But this is completely unrelated to residential use of water, which is a) a rounding error next to agriculture and b) provisioned through a largely orthogonal system of reservoirs and, yes, aqueducts, which agriculture simply isn't competing with. Expanding that system and stewarding the available water better wouldn't take away from agriculture, which is fed by rivers and aquifers.

Again, the big offender is alfalfa. Rice, irrigated from canals off the Delta, is an irrelevant distraction to agricultural sustainability, let alone residential growth.

California's system of water rights is ancient and corrupt, and isn't serving the state well. But "pricing ag water like residential water" is a nonsensical way of solving that problem, it's just not the same water. Actually auctioning available water, and setting hard limits on aquifer withdrawal, is both necessary and quite sufficient.

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#467
post #413

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're not low, certainly, but they aren't extravagant, and they are offset by low property taxes (California 1%, Texas 1.80%, New Hampshire 2.18%), even more so once you've been in a place some years, and are benefiting from Prop 13.

Uh, no, 1% isn’t not a low tax rate when’s starter single family home in the Bay Area is $1M.

Californian valuations are fixed in their increases by prop 13, so over time your property taxes will go down, restive to inflation at least.

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People want to live near jobs, services and amenities, and diversity of those can only be achieved at scale. You could build a million homes in the middle of nowhere and you’d wind up with a million empty houses.

Many people also want to live in large houses or apartments, which is extremely expensive anywhere with high population density.

Many people also want to win the lotto.

Even if people are saying this, what they actually do is quite different. People in CA moving out are generally moving into other metropolitan areas or smaller cities. They're not living some kind of Stardew Valley fantasy in the fields.

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#469
post #56
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The majority of water problems come not from a few entities consuming massive amounts of water. Why we allow growing almond trees in an arid climate is beyond me. After that, you have smaller but water intensive businesses. Being suburban doesn’t mean you waste water. I live in the suburbs and our water use is minimal. I use water saving shower heads, I turn off the water during most of the shower. In fact, the water…

There are always going to be outliers (people in cities who use a lot of water, and people outside who don't), but on average you will always find that city families tend to use less water than non-city families. In other words, public policies that divert people away from cities tend to increase water consumption (and harm the environment by just about any other metric you can name.)

I personally moved from a city to an RV and stay in rural areas. We (wife and myself) use about 60 gallons of water _per week_ right now. We're planning on getting a well on our property soon and even after that we're probably going to use at most 20-40 gallons a day (with a fairly large garden). I don't exactly understand what city people these days (it's been 7 years for me) do but they tend to wash clothes and shower... a LOT.

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#470

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Law makers pass the laws their constituents want. Blame the voters.

I often remark that SF and the valley are a flawed democratic institution: it has a very high immigrant population that would vote against the majority of things that get voted. Immigrants are generally tough on crime, Yimby, anti-tax, etc.

Really? I’m an immigrant and I wish taxes were higher so we could get healthcare and more help for the homeless
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