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California population declines for first time in more than a century

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Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#291
post #240
post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i.e. the original sin that gave us this problem in the first place. It makes absolutely no sense to have the older, wealthier, luckier, "I got here early, therefore I'm set for life" generation pay $300/year, while the couple in their thirties who moved in two years ago, have a new baby, and can barely afford the mortgage and daycare despite both parents working in tech have to pay nearly $15,000/year. I know the ori…

That was only one of the original arguments for Proposition 13. The main reason it passed was that local governments had been jacking up property taxes and spending it on things that most homeowners didn't particularly want, such as higher wages for unionized government employees. Eventually people got fed up with the waste. Prop 13 was a blunt instrument but at least it finally forced local governments to exercise s…

Prop 13 actually passed because property owners were pissed their nominal taxes were going up due to inflation in the 70s.

Renters voted for it because they were told that their rents wouldn't go up if property taxes were capped, but of course that's not how market rate rents work. So pissed off renters voted in rent control on SF, Oakland, and elsewhere.

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#292
post #18

Paradise on Earth and home to the world’s brightest-future industry; California could easily grow to 100M residents if it simply allowed housing to be built to accommodate all the people who want to live here. And it would be a net win for the climate, because most of them would be coming from much less eco-friendly places.

As a native Californian I would argue a place like Hawaii is much closer to paradise on earth.

Hawaii has a lot of problems also. It looks nice on a postcard, and some of it is very nice. But it has a lot of problems.

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

California needs to drastically ramp up water availability from new sources. Otherwise there isn't much point to the rest of this conversation.

Stop growing rice and fucknuts in the fucking desert. That solves the water problem.

Is _rice_ really grown in California?

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are various calculators you can find on Google. This is the one I used to get the numbers above: https://smartasset.com/taxes/california-tax-calculator#rSyRW...

Thanks. Medical insurance paid by company? What is a normal amount people put in a retirement plan? Is that contribution tax deductible? If it is say like 20%, it seems easily 50% of your income are acounted for.

401ks are pretax money.

In general, people put ~5% of their (pretax) money into 401ks because, on average, companies will match that ~5%, effectively doubling your retirement savings instantly.

A common thing to utilize after that is a ROTH IRA, which is paid with after tax money, but the money grows tax free. The max ROTH IRA contribution per year is $6k, $12k if you're married.

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of California's problems go back to lack of housing and opposition to building more. Everyone wants to live in Cali for nice weather and jobs. If you stop people from building more housing your property value just keeps rising. Property costs are high because NIMBY blocking denser housing. Traffic is bad because housing density is too low for the population. Homelessness is bad because houses are too expensive.…

I agree, I do think building more housing would help. However, my point is that I don't see that happening anytime soon. We've only seen light forms of the policy changes this would require, and many haven't even passed. There's a lot of opposition to these policy changes, and they have money on their side. And even when (if) they do change, it will take some time for them to have an effect. My age group is at the ag…

> For many of us it makes more sense to leave than to wait 10-20 years and hope things get better.

But most of you don't leave because of family who live in CA - the very people who prevent any fixes to the situation, in the first place.

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#296
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fire season is more like hell on earth than paradise, unfortunately.

The primary reason we have a fire season at all is that we don't let people build housing in California's existing cities and towns, and so instead they sprawl out into fire-prone areas requiring long-distance power lines. https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/news/release/wui-interface-intermi...

Also because people don't want to live next door to power plants (with "next door" meaning "within eyesight").

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#297

I feel like it's only going to get worse. California has a good number of problems: housing costs, traffic, wildfires, homelessness, ... and the high tax rate you pay for the privilege of enjoying them. But I haven't seen California take meaningful steps to solve any of these. We're still in the stage of "problems are getting worse", and any solutions will take a long time to materialize. I grew up in California. It'…

But the places like Oregon and Washington which are booming as a result of "California flight" have all of those same factors with marginally different weights associated to each individual problem.

In particular, Oregon has a higher tax rate than California does for high (~120K+) earners as a result of a lack of sales tax and correspondingly absurdly high income taxes. Oregon is booming. Blue state politics is not what is driving people out of California.

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks. Medical insurance paid by company? What is a normal amount people put in a retirement plan? Is that contribution tax deductible? If it is say like 20%, it seems easily 50% of your income are acounted for.

401ks are pretax money. In general, people put ~5% of their (pretax) money into 401ks because, on average, companies will match that ~5%, effectively doubling your retirement savings instantly. A common thing to utilize after that is a ROTH IRA, which is paid with after tax money, but the money grows tax free. The max ROTH IRA contribution per year is $6k, $12k if you're married.

Is the matching by the company also tax exempt?

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#299
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of California, even the densest regions like the city of San Francisco, are covered in a sea of single-family houses. This is primarily because in the 1970's, all other kinds of housing were banned. See, for instance, the map at: http://sfzoning.deapthoughts.com/ If we allowed four-story apartment buildings again like we used to, the state's population could easily double in size without even having to raise a s…

in LA, the limit in the early 1900s was 13 stories/150’ [0], so many of the older tall-ish buildings in downtown and along the wilshire corridor are a uniform height. it’s quite pleasing actually. i’d support a bill allowing all mixed-use buildings to be 13 stories/150’ by default, and taller along transit corridors. and all residential to be 4+1 by right, and bigger within 1/2 mile of a transit corridor. CA politici…

Politics is the art of the possible, and a bill that made those changes is highly unlikely to pass.

San Francisco's state senator Scott Weiner has been leading in he charge. A few good bills have gotten through, but opposition from LA has been a serious hurdle to upzoning.

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The overcrowding you describe is endemic in California. Likely, nearly all you food is produced by people living in overcrowded housing, worse than you describe. What you describe is common for the people who serve you food in restaurants, and restock the shelves, and do pretty much all the stuff that makes society run these days in California. And we got to that point without concrete boxes at all. Avoiding density…

> Let's imagine that we build so that we don't have to hear our neighbors' partying. I’ve heard (and been kept awake by) my neighbors in every single place I’ve lived that’s not a detached home. Even the fancy condo with super thick walls/floors/ceilings only made it rarer. If nothing else, this is why I want a single family home and hate the idea that this is the desirable future. Invest in remote work and let peopl…

Single family homes in cities will still exist. They're a luxury now -- SFH in desirable parts of SF start around $1300/sq ft -- and will likely remain so.
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