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Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

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Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> for now we assume that total COVID-19 deaths equal excess mortality. This seems reasonable, although I'd suggest it's an underestimate of COVID-19 deaths. Excess deaths counts have been consistently showing negative in countries during periods of time where they have coronavirus under control. Other significant causes of death (including suicide, influenza, road traffic accidents) appear to be down. As such, I'd as…

I noticed (late summer last year) that especially age group 25-44 is/was affected in the US with a +25% (excess) mortality YoY. It is not entirely unusual that diseases affect different countries differently; However I found it peculiar.

Americans are incredibly overweight on average

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is the more likely scenario that you just had the seasonal Flu, or that there is a non detectable covid variant?

Summer isn't flu season. Multiple medical professions felt it was covid and recommended testing. Some of our symptoms weren't associated with flu, but were with covid. There are some 20 tracked covid variants spreading in the USA right now. Tracking of variants didn't begin until Dec. But even in the few months since they began tracking variant proportions, the dominant strains have shifted quite dramatically. T his…

Okay, not Influenza, "flu", as in something that causes flu like symptoms. Quite a lot of virus can do that, as well as bacteria, allergies, etc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza-like_illness

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#254
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

WHO has been consistent about being anti-lockdown during all of Covid. There's limited evidence they work more than a short-term delay tactic and cause tremendous harm.

Explain China, Vietnam, New Zealand, Australia, and Korea. Not all of those countries are islands (The UK is one, and you may note that it's not on the list.) But all of those countries instituted short, hard lockdowns, and relaxed them after bringing local cases to zero. Around here, we institute half-assed lockdowns, that are lifted when enough people complain about them (only to come back, as cases surge). Maybe t…

I agree with the last point and I don't think it's a bad thing. I'm against lockdowns period. I'm not against vaccines, not against masks, but I don't want this administration, the last administration, or any other to have the power to put us on indefinite house arrest. This IS a hill I wont budge from.

With China, we don't have enough information to make the claim that they under-reported deaths. If you CTRL-F China in the OP data on them is absent. I'm a bit surprised that the author could extrapolate a gap between reporting and actual deaths for every other country except that one.

As for comparing EU and the UK to Australia and New Zealand, that's more easily explained by the much higher air traffic volume between these countries and covid hotspots early on. In short, the combination of being "islands" with limited ports of entry and smaller passenger volume meant that early border closures could be much more feasible and effective.

Korea for all intents and purposes is an "island" in this comparison as well, in that on 3 sides it's surrounded by water and its northern border has no ports of entry.

A short, early response with entry closures and contact tracing does seem to be key, but I don't agree with the notion that we need to emulate their lockdowns. I'd rather wear a mask forever than be like them. The UK got the worst of both worlds since they got stricter lockdowns than the US without getting it under control. The decision to go for zero and stop all social life in order to get down to zero deaths from all covid is commendable but not our obligation. Our duty was to stop from overwhelming our medical system only, not to go for zero by giving up all social life and the economy.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I noticed (late summer last year) that especially age group 25-44 is/was affected in the US with a +25% (excess) mortality YoY. It is not entirely unusual that diseases affect different countries differently; However I found it peculiar.

I suspect this is the same in other countries. 25-44 year olds don't usually die (typical mortality is approx 0.1%), so +25% represents a relatively small number in absolute terms.

USA is an outlier on this. You can compare with Italy for example:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105061/coronavirus-deat...

USA has 30 times the deaths among 30-39 year olds but only 5.5 times the population. It isn't just Italy, almost every other country has a distribution similar to Italy.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#256
post #20

This isn't a "study", it's a statistical model. It reflects the assumptions put into it. To wit: > Our analysis follows four key steps. First, for all locations where weekly or monthly all-cause mortality has been reported since the start of the pandemic, we estimate how much mortality increased compared to the expected death rate....Second, based on a range of studies and consideration of other evidence, we estimate…

https://www.USMortality.com

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#257
post #20

This isn't a "study", it's a statistical model. It reflects the assumptions put into it. To wit: > Our analysis follows four key steps. First, for all locations where weekly or monthly all-cause mortality has been reported since the start of the pandemic, we estimate how much mortality increased compared to the expected death rate....Second, based on a range of studies and consideration of other evidence, we estimate…

> for now we assume that total COVID-19 deaths equal excess mortality. This seems reasonable, although I'd suggest it's an underestimate of COVID-19 deaths. Excess deaths counts have been consistently showing negative in countries during periods of time where they have coronavirus under control. Other significant causes of death (including suicide, influenza, road traffic accidents) appear to be down. As such, I'd as…

> Excess deaths counts have been consistently showing negative in countries during periods of time where they have coronavirus under control.

> Other significant causes of death (including suicide, influenza, road traffic accidents) appear to be down.

That's most probably a direct factor of the containment measures. Influenza has been on sometimes historic lows (https://www.who.int/influenza/surveillance_monitoring/update...), and as many people have stayed home streets have been free and people don't drive home from bars totally drunk, both drastically reducing road accidents.

Suicides however? These are going up by some indications (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01042-z), as is domestic violence (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7195322/).

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#258
post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> [Edited to note: the linked article discusses this with further detail and evidence] Here's the sum total of evidence provided: > An analysis by the Netherlands statistical agency suggested that all excess deaths in the Netherlands were directly due to COVID-19 So they use a single study out of Europe to extrapolate here. > The second driver of excess mortality is reduced health care utilization for many causes;3 h…

> without prospective validation, statistical models are fiction. I wouldn't be completely dismissive. The first attempts at using statistical data to drive medical practice were during the Napoleonic wars, and dramatically improved medicine. I would expect the statistical methods used were pretty crude, as it was a very young discipline.

Crude methods are fine. Fantastic models are made with linear regression.

No matter how crude your methods, if you don't validate your model prospectively, it is a mathematical fairy tale.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#260
post #20

This isn't a "study", it's a statistical model. It reflects the assumptions put into it. To wit: > Our analysis follows four key steps. First, for all locations where weekly or monthly all-cause mortality has been reported since the start of the pandemic, we estimate how much mortality increased compared to the expected death rate....Second, based on a range of studies and consideration of other evidence, we estimate…

> for now we assume that total COVID-19 deaths equal excess mortality. This seems reasonable, although I'd suggest it's an underestimate of COVID-19 deaths. Excess deaths counts have been consistently showing negative in countries during periods of time where they have coronavirus under control. Other significant causes of death (including suicide, influenza, road traffic accidents) appear to be down. As such, I'd as…

> Other significant causes of death (including suicide, influenza, road traffic accidents) appear to be down.

Can you source your other claims? At least one seems to be wrong. Traffic deaths seem to be up:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2021/03/05/pandemi...

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