Live data from Hacker News

Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

healthdata.org

71–80 of 387 posts

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#71
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, and it's a suspect one at best. Personally I wouldn't trust a stastical model from someone who advertises that they own the book "how to lie with statistics" and obviously used it

I trust someone who acknowledges that statistics can be used deceptively vastly more than I trust someone who doesn't.

[deleted]

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#72
“If there were 315,507 excess deaths due to Covid-19, why is the difference in all-cause deaths between the end of 2020 and the end of 2019 only 61,654? That’s 61,654 more all-cause deaths in 2020 than in 2019, where the increase in all-cause deaths over each of the past ten years has averaged 44,806. That’s a difference of 16,848 from the median in a year with an alleged 315,507 extra Covid-related deaths.”

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#73

This is anecdotal at best, but when my grandfather passed last May from COVID, his death certificate did not record the cause of death as COVID. He tested negative twice after his month long bought with it, but only lived for another few weeks until dying of respiratory failure. We were told that because he was not testing positive at the time of death, his cause of death could not be recorded as COVID. I thought cau…

I'm pretty sure there have been non-detectable covid variants in the wild in the US for months now. I went through this with my mother, she was admitted to the hospital for a surgery and contracted some kind of "flu." She tested negative several times for covid. She stayed with me to convalesce and I came down with a "flu" in the middle of summer that had most of the symptoms of covid, except the loss of taste/smell.…

Is the more likely scenario that you just had the seasonal Flu, or that there is a non detectable covid variant?

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#74
post #20

This isn't a "study", it's a statistical model. It reflects the assumptions put into it. To wit: > Our analysis follows four key steps. First, for all locations where weekly or monthly all-cause mortality has been reported since the start of the pandemic, we estimate how much mortality increased compared to the expected death rate....Second, based on a range of studies and consideration of other evidence, we estimate…

Yep, and it's a suspect one at best. Personally I wouldn't trust a stastical model from someone who advertises that they own the book "how to lie with statistics" and obviously used it

I mean that book is basically required reading for Statistics 101. Doesn't everyone have a copy?

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#75

It looks like Florida is two shades "better" than California in the diagram, which would put the total Florida death rate as better than California. That would be interesting because Florida did almost no lockdown. How could that be?

WHO has been consistent about being anti-lockdown during all of Covid. There's limited evidence they work more than a short-term delay tactic and cause tremendous harm.

Explain China, Vietnam, New Zealand, Australia, and Korea.

Not all of those countries are islands (The UK is one, and you may note that it's not on the list.)

But all of those countries instituted short, hard lockdowns, and relaxed them after bringing local cases to zero.

Around here, we institute half-assed lockdowns, that are lifted when enough people complain about them (only to come back, as cases surge). Maybe that's why they don't work for us - because we are politically and socially incapable of dealing with even a few weeks of hardship.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#76
post #38

In absolute number terms it's more deaths in total in the USA than the Spanish Flu (675k deaths total since it began), HIV (700k deaths total since it began) or any other pandemic. Population has increased so the US did lose a smaller percentage of population but on the other hand Spanish Flu didn't have a vaccine to stop it one year in. Hopefully enough of the population takes the vaccine now to stop this. Note this…

Remember that life expectancy went from 60 -> 80 over the last century. 80% of the deaths have been from folks aged 65+. So, it is arguable that the Spanish flu would have killed a lot more if the average lifespan was higher.

It affected younger people more:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Patterns_of_fatali...

> The pandemic mostly killed young adults. In 1918–1919, 99% of pandemic influenza deaths in the U.S. occurred in people under 65, and nearly half of deaths were in young adults 20 to 40 years old.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For the former, if someone is actually willing to listen to evidence, you can cite them numbers of average years of life lost per covid death (~15).

>you can cite them numbers of average years of life lost per covid death That's practically inviting them to cite back the average life lost from the 1918 flu. If you're trying to counter someone who's downplaying Covid that is probably not something you should invite them to do.

I believe there are a significant amount of these people that won't actually argue that just because the Spanish flu was worse in this way that the Covid pandemic isn't a problem.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#78

This is anecdotal at best, but when my grandfather passed last May from COVID, his death certificate did not record the cause of death as COVID. He tested negative twice after his month long bought with it, but only lived for another few weeks until dying of respiratory failure. We were told that because he was not testing positive at the time of death, his cause of death could not be recorded as COVID. I thought cau…

Gets manipulated in the other direction too: financial incentives nudge hospitals to assign coronavirus as a cause of death if you had it when you died, even if it wasn't what actually killed you. I don't know if it's as blatant as "died in a car crash of coronavirus," but enough of my medical friends have mentioned it that I believe there's truth to it.

Another financial incentive that exists: Families can get up to $9,000 for funeral expenses if the cause of death is listed as Covid.

https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/covid-funeral-reimburs...

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#79

This is anecdotal at best, but when my grandfather passed last May from COVID, his death certificate did not record the cause of death as COVID. He tested negative twice after his month long bought with it, but only lived for another few weeks until dying of respiratory failure. We were told that because he was not testing positive at the time of death, his cause of death could not be recorded as COVID. I thought cau…

I'm sorry for your loss. I had a similar experience in the US. In my case, a doctor flatly contributed the (impending) death a byproduct of COVID. All tests prior to COVID were positive and pointed to many more years ahead.

I'm not certain, but I suspect something was lost in the handoff to the hospice care company where they just didn't have the history and I assume they were the ones that reported the COD. Not certain about this. I plan on looking to see if there's anyway to have this retroactively updated, but I'm not optimistic.

Post reply on HN