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Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

healthdata.org

141–150 of 387 posts

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#142
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is "pointing out" data considered downplaying? ~5% of deaths had "covid only" while the remaining 95% had other factors with the average having 4 other factors. From the CDC: > Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The number of deaths that mention one or more of the conditions indicated is shown for all…

Many of those 'additional causes" are things caused by COVID-19. e.g. per that table, out of 560K deaths coded as COVID-19, 257K were also coded as "influenza or pneumonia". That's because Covid causes pneumonia.

Adding to this, pneumonia is merely inflammation of the (aveoli in the) lungs and it is almost always caused by some external factor, such as infection or illness.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#143

The organization that published these numbers apparently a. Doesn't know how to use certbot and b. Is primarily funded by organizations who are anything but impartial on the subject

Can you explain in more detail? Who are the biased organizations who funded this publication?

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#144

>the discrepancy between reported deaths and analyses of death rates compared to expected death rates, sometimes referred to as “excess mortality,” suggests that the total COVID-19 death rate is many multiples larger than official reports. So...not as many people died as we thought were going to so we're now just going to arbitrarily say any excess death was a covid death just to make sure the numbers look like what…

Comparison of expected versus actual outcomes is a reliable method to estimate the overall effect of a new input. Can you specifically point out how such analysis constitutes "shenanigans"?

It includes deaths caused by the response to covid, such as people avoiding hospital for other diseases and whatever the deathy consequences of lockdowns might be.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#145
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the people I know who died, did so after traveling to Florida where they did catch covid, return home and died 40 some days later on a ventilator. Maybe travel in and out of Florida is fluid enough to explain it to some degree.

> did so after traveling to Florida to catch covid uh, what? I don't understand why anyone would willingly try to catch a disease... (get your kids the chickenpox vaccine, don't do those chickenpox parties if those still exist. The vaccine drastically reduces the occurrence shingles later in life. I'm a bit envious that my younger sisters got it, but I got chickenpox as a child. Seeing it flare up in my dad every 18…

Poor phrasing on my part.

They actually thought risk was lower than it was, went to Florida and unfortunately caught the bug.

Edit made, since all this happened in the window.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#146
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Something to consider if you see anyone trying to downplay this. It's invalid reasoning to use this study to "upplay" the pandemic. It includes deaths due to depressions and delayed medical interventions, which you could argue isn't the result of COVID directly, but the result of lockdowns. So when people use this study to claim "see, this many lives were lost, we were right to institute lockdowns" - that's circula…

If there had been no mitigation efforts the death toll would have skyrocketed as our healthcare systems collapsed.

I doubt that. People would naturally follow social distancing protocols (out of fear for their own lives). They would still hang out, but less and more in the open, and still go to the doctor, but less and only for the necessary issues. Literally the only place where "healthcare systems collapsed" (in the West) was Italy, which was caught completely unprepared.

There's a sensible middle ground between life-as-normal and enforced lockdowns.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Prior to April 2020 the diagnostic criteria for a covid death required 0 testing whatsoever. Combine that with financial incentives to record something as covid, and the lack of other income for hospitals as patients wouldn't come for minor things and elective operations were cancelled and you have a perfect storm for bad data

Not going to keep arguing about this, but there are a huge number of different ways we can confirm that our counts are roughly accurate. There are obvious signals in total excess death counts indicating the number of deaths due to covid, we can do retrospective random testing of early classified covid deaths. There is no evidence of some systematic conspiracy or anything of the sort. I encourage you to consider that…

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

It’s simply incentives, it doesn’t take a top-down conspiracy to have independent actors try to game a system in order to profit financially.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#149
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Something to consider if you see anyone trying to downplay this. Most of the downplaying I've seen has revolved around the idea that those who died would have, "died anyway" from some other ailment or that hospitals are finding any reason they can to attribute deaths to covid. So, while you have a great argument, I doubt you'll change any minds because those who disagree flat out reject your premise.

Is "pointing out" data considered downplaying? ~5% of deaths had "covid only" while the remaining 95% had other factors with the average having 4 other factors. From the CDC: > Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The number of deaths that mention one or more of the conditions indicated is shown for all…

Those other factors like pnuemonia, arrythmia, organ damage, sepsis, etc. are mostly caused by COVID-19.

This is like saying that 0% of people who have contracted HIV have ever died of HIV, they died of other diseases. Well, sure, but what allowed those other diseases to be contracted?

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#150
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Something to consider if you see anyone trying to downplay this. Most of the downplaying I've seen has revolved around the idea that those who died would have, "died anyway" from some other ailment or that hospitals are finding any reason they can to attribute deaths to covid. So, while you have a great argument, I doubt you'll change any minds because those who disagree flat out reject your premise.

Is "pointing out" data considered downplaying? ~5% of deaths had "covid only" while the remaining 95% had other factors with the average having 4 other factors. From the CDC: > Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The number of deaths that mention one or more of the conditions indicated is shown for all…

I think where that 5% figure is used incorrectly: if you look at the other factors, they seem to not be "someone had a stroke, caught covid, and died", they're stuff like "Someone had Covid, developed pneumonia and died".

The top "other factors" are (in order): Pneumonia, "everything else", respiratory failure, high blood pressure, diabetes, cardiac arrest, heart disease, acute respiratory distress syndrome, etc.

It's pretty clear to say that far more than 5% died of Covid induced complications, not that they died of "natural" causes and also tested Covid positive. Saying the 5% number is almost certainly abuse of statistics, especially given the notable uptick in mortality in the US.

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