Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19 • Hacker News Board

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#41

Post by grawprog » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:16 PM UTC

>the discrepancy between reported deaths and analyses of death rates compared to expected death rates, sometimes referred to as “excess mortality,” suggests that the total COVID-19 death rate is many multiples larger than official reports.

So...not as many people died as we thought were going to so we're now just going to arbitrarily say any excess death was a covid death just to make sure the numbers look like what we think they should?

These are the kinds of statistical shenanigans that have been going on all year and people wonder why people question 'the science.'

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#42

Post by techbio » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:16 PM UTC

whb07 wrote: post #10

Wonder how they accounted for the gun shot victims and motorcycle crashes who are accounted as covid deaths? Looking at Italian data going back to March/April of 2020, we knew that over 50% of deaths, the patient had 3+ serious diseases and had a median age of 79+. The true death rate is the delta of standard deaths in a “normal” year and the ones recorded now. That and somehow account for some pull-forward that’s cl…

So, perhaps we see fewer than expected deaths in the next 2-3 years?

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#43

Post by [deleted] » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:16 PM UTC

ddingus wrote: post #28

chmod600 wrote: post #13

It looks like Florida is two shades "better" than California in the diagram, which would put the total Florida death rate as better than California. That would be interesting because Florida did almost no lockdown. How could that be?

One of the people I know who died, did so after traveling to Florida where they did catch covid, return home and died 40 some days later on a ventilator. Maybe travel in and out of Florida is fluid enough to explain it to some degree.

[deleted]

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#44

Post by pvarangot » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:17 PM UTC

bpodgursky wrote: post #18

chmod600 wrote: post #13

It looks like Florida is two shades "better" than California in the diagram, which would put the total Florida death rate as better than California. That would be interesting because Florida did almost no lockdown. How could that be?

Florida aggressively locked down visitor access to nursing homes pretty early on, which is where the vast majority of deaths happen. Wearing masks on beaches and in restaurants etc may slightly impact the case count but really doesn't impact mortality in the same way that an outbreak in a care home does.

I'm not sure where I read about this but Florida also did better in prisons.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#45

Post by whimsicalism » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:17 PM UTC

mywittyname wrote: post #16

AnotherGoodName wrote: post #2

In absolute number terms it's more deaths in total in the USA than the Spanish Flu (675k deaths total since it began), HIV (700k deaths total since it began) or any other pandemic. Population has increased so the US did lose a smaller percentage of population but on the other hand Spanish Flu didn't have a vaccine to stop it one year in. Hopefully enough of the population takes the vaccine now to stop this. Note this…

>Something to consider if you see anyone trying to downplay this. Most of the downplaying I've seen has revolved around the idea that those who died would have, "died anyway" from some other ailment or that hospitals are finding any reason they can to attribute deaths to covid. So, while you have a great argument, I doubt you'll change any minds because those who disagree flat out reject your premise.

For the former, if someone is actually willing to listen to evidence, you can cite them numbers of average years of life lost per covid death (~15).

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#46

Post by sct202 » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:18 PM UTC

chmod600 wrote: post #13

It looks like Florida is two shades "better" than California in the diagram, which would put the total Florida death rate as better than California. That would be interesting because Florida did almost no lockdown. How could that be?

I was in Florida for a good part last year, and it was pretty similar to how things were in Illinois, as a lot of response was left to the local authorities and a lot of people distanced themselves without needing laws to tell them to do so. The biggest difference was that there was more indoor dining and some public schools were in person.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#47

Post by gilbetron » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:18 PM UTC

screye wrote: post #38

AnotherGoodName wrote: post #2

In absolute number terms it's more deaths in total in the USA than the Spanish Flu (675k deaths total since it began), HIV (700k deaths total since it began) or any other pandemic. Population has increased so the US did lose a smaller percentage of population but on the other hand Spanish Flu didn't have a vaccine to stop it one year in. Hopefully enough of the population takes the vaccine now to stop this. Note this…

Remember that life expectancy went from 60 -> 80 over the last century. 80% of the deaths have been from folks aged 65+. So, it is arguable that the Spanish flu would have killed a lot more if the average lifespan was higher.

It's an interesting point. Spanish Flu hit younger people, so having more older people might not have affected the numbers much. On the other hand, maybe having so many old people with covid affected which variant traveled around.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#48

Post by neither_color » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:18 PM UTC

AnotherGoodName wrote: post #2

In absolute number terms it's more deaths in total in the USA than the Spanish Flu (675k deaths total since it began), HIV (700k deaths total since it began) or any other pandemic. Population has increased so the US did lose a smaller percentage of population but on the other hand Spanish Flu didn't have a vaccine to stop it one year in. Hopefully enough of the population takes the vaccine now to stop this. Note this…

I'm not trying to downplay it, I believe the official CDC counts, but some additional considerations are: Is the high total death count related directly to our response(or lack thereof), or to our higher population of people pre-disposed/vulnerable to this virus? For the past few months the focus has been on people ignoring lockdowns, ignoring bans on gatherings, vaccine hesitance etc. but it seems that, based on the co-morbidities, we were an already largely unhealthy population to begin with.

We shouldn't downplay the progress we've made while we're at it. 100 million vaccinations is quite an accomplishment. If we're going to beat ourselves up for having the top total deaths(while not being in the top 20 per capita), we should pat ourselves on the back for that one. Getting 100 million people to do anything is hard.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#49

Post by yalogin » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:19 PM UTC

For me its shocking that we as a population have become so numb to so much death around us. Wonder what it says about society in general. Would be fascinating to read any research reports on that aspect.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#50

Post by sweezyjeezy » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:20 PM UTC

mywittyname wrote: post #16

AnotherGoodName wrote: post #2

In absolute number terms it's more deaths in total in the USA than the Spanish Flu (675k deaths total since it began), HIV (700k deaths total since it began) or any other pandemic. Population has increased so the US did lose a smaller percentage of population but on the other hand Spanish Flu didn't have a vaccine to stop it one year in. Hopefully enough of the population takes the vaccine now to stop this. Note this…

>Something to consider if you see anyone trying to downplay this. Most of the downplaying I've seen has revolved around the idea that those who died would have, "died anyway" from some other ailment or that hospitals are finding any reason they can to attribute deaths to covid. So, while you have a great argument, I doubt you'll change any minds because those who disagree flat out reject your premise.

I think it's kind of unlucky in some ways that Covid affected the old/unhealthy so disproportionately. I feel like we would have responded in a much more assertive and effective way had that not been the case. More people who were not in the risk groups would (ironically) have been saved, and we'd be a lot further on the road to recovery.

Not a lot of young people know a huge amount of people in the risk groups, it's easy to dismiss if it hasn't affected someone you know.