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The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

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Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#331

Post by jerf »

koheripbal wrote: post #319
followtheplot wrote: post #294

"... proponents of lab escape can explain all the available facts about SARS2 considerably more easily than can those who favor natural emergence." "The natural emergence theory battles a bristling array of implausibilities." This is a fantastic article, but amazingly almost all of it is year-old news. Most of this was known in March 2020, and nearly all of it by the end of 2020. How does it take so long for the trut…

Unfortunately, the reality is that we have no new data on the origin of covid-19. No on-the-ground analysis has been allowed in China.

As this is now over a year later, this is a data point.

It isn't proof. But it is a data point, not lack of data.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#332

Post by altacc »

darkerside wrote: post #295
altacc wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it's not rational as then you're relying on the other side to prove a negative, which is an unreasonable reversal of burden of proof (e.g. Russell's teapot). As to 50/50 being reason to take large scale regulatory action, would you accept this level of proof to enact any law? That seems a low bar to me.

If there's a 50/50 chance there is an intruder in your house, wouldn't you act as if there was?

If it was 50% likely that people would break the speed limit when driving, should they be banned from driving? It's easy to make false equivalences all day long but it is of no benefit to anybody.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#333

Post by unanswered »

shoto_io wrote: post #314
followtheplot wrote: post #294

"... proponents of lab escape can explain all the available facts about SARS2 considerably more easily than can those who favor natural emergence." "The natural emergence theory battles a bristling array of implausibilities." This is a fantastic article, but amazingly almost all of it is year-old news. Most of this was known in March 2020, and nearly all of it by the end of 2020. How does it take so long for the trut…

Well, I can relate to that. Most of 2020 we were focused on fighting the aftermath of the crisis. Now that things slowly are getting back to normal, at least in some Western countries, our focus shifts to the origins. I was also very skeptical in the beginning about the escape theory tbh. But after reading a couple of pieces I’m opening up to the possibility.

And how does this justify moral superiority to those of us who understood from the beginning that the lab hypothesis was the most likely? Or was that not true until you decided it was true?

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#334

Post by willmadden »

guesst wrote: post #47
willmadden wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SARS-2-CoV was almost assuredly not natural, and RaTG13 was a keyboard virus. The only question is if it was accidentally leaked or if it was intentional. We'll never know, the CCP destroyed the evidence. There are many videos and articles on this site about how SARS-2-CoV was not zoonotic. I don't necessarily blame China, but the funders of the research. https://www.peakprosperity.com/more-evidence-covid-19-may-no..…

You're treating that question as settled. To me that is the mirror image of the media outlets trying to shut down an open question by claiming it's a "conspiracy" that has been "debunked". I would say what's needed is a credible, independent investigation, one that reasonable people can trust. We haven't had that yet.

Did you review the materials? There is hard science proving SARS-CoV-2 isn't zoonotic. It was gain of function research.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#335

Post by didericis »

notriskfree wrote: post #303
didericis wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this did come from a lab, it was an accident. I think it’s unreasonable to consider the spread in China intentional, as there’s no reasonable motivation to do so. The main difference from SARS is we know there is a virology lab in Wuhan researching coronaviruses right across from the wet market considered the epicenter. I don’t know enough about the reaction to SARS to know how similar it was, but my understanding…

Setting the actual tragic pandemic to one side. It is not true that there are never going to be reasonable motivations to deploy a virus:- It could be viewed as a tool to alter population demographics in an ageing society. It might be deployed against an adversary. It might be used to reduce the human population to avoid a predicted ecological disaster. There are probably dozens of very reasonable motivations.

That’s a stronger claim than I was making; I don’t think it’s categorically unreasonable to assume there’s motivation to intentionally release a virus.

I think it’s unreasonable to think there was a motivation to intentionally release Covid.

I don’t think there’s reasonable motivation given when and where the outbreak started, how the virus works, China’s response, etc.

I think the particular scenarios you’re painting are also quite extreme/unlikely, so any claim that a virus was released intentionally would require extraordinary evidence in most cases/I’d rarely entertain that hypothesis. There are less drastic and risky ways with less blowback of dealing with all of those issues, even if you assume a very capable bad actor and ignore the normal and expected amount of incompetence and error.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#336

Post by neonological »

throwaway4good wrote: post #237
exegete wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The burden of proof is on the one making the claim and the more extraordinary the claim the more extraordinary the evidence needs to be in my opinion.

Exactly. There is an investegative group from the WHO interviewing the Wuhan lab people and looking at various form of documentation. The lab leak proponents claim that they are all lying and all the documents are fraudulent. The lab leak proponents have the burden of proof and IMHO kinda should shut up until they can carry that burden.

Did you read the article. The investigative group is compromised. The doctors who were part of the group have strong connections and even experiments running in the same lab.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#337

Post by anikan_vader »

__s wrote: post #305
swader999 wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also,this sars cov-2 virus will not infect bats. That really hurts the 'it came from the bats' theory.

Similarly, humans can't impregnate chimpanzees. That really hurts the "humans evolved from apes" theory

Since this is a common misconception, I'll note that humans didn't evolve from apes or chimpanzees. We share a relatively close common ancestor with them.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#338

Post by risaacs99 »

Consultant32452 wrote: post #316
uvesten wrote: post #251

I think most people are confused because of CCP’s successful disinformation campaign, and also out of fear of being seen as prejudiced. The fact is that an epidemic with a corona virus (never before or since seen in the wild) with a peculiarly efficient ability to infect humans started in the _only city in the world with a lab where gain-of-function experiments on corona viruses_ is located. Just apply occam’s razor,…

I would like to add another factor in your favor for this hypothesis. Naturally occurring viruses/bacteria tend to evolve to spread most effectively in conditions similar to how animals live: outside. COVID-19, conversely, seems to fair poorly outside and spreads most rapidly in indoor conditions not unlike one would expect in a human run laboratory environment.

A virus with a novel mutation favoring humans would be successful infecting humans, period. I can't imagine any respiratory virus that wouldn't spread more effectively indoors. This "factor" is not particularly compelling (to me).

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#339

Post by TrispusAttucks »

gonehome wrote: post #326
followtheplot wrote: post #294

"... proponents of lab escape can explain all the available facts about SARS2 considerably more easily than can those who favor natural emergence." "The natural emergence theory battles a bristling array of implausibilities." This is a fantastic article, but amazingly almost all of it is year-old news. Most of this was known in March 2020, and nearly all of it by the end of 2020. How does it take so long for the trut…

What bothers me about it is not only did it take a long time for the “truth to win”, but mainstream media orgs actively suppressed it because of tribal stupidity. It was used as an example of “fake news”: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/02/technology/biden-reality-... > “ Hoaxes, lies and collective delusions aren’t new, but the extent to which millions of Americans have embraced them may be. Thirty percent of Republ…

Exactly!

2020 will be forever the year I lost total trust in mainstream media. It's one thing to just "get it wrong" it's an entirely different thing when the powers that be are actively trying to promote a false narrative.

And then to turn around and label actual journalism and truth seeking as "conspiracy-theorist" and "crack pots" it is just too much to bear.

Filling the news with endless critiques and shaming of the proper way and material of mask to wear but deflect any attempts at uncovering, How the Hell this thing Started in the First Place!

They have become the anti-thesis of news and journalism and a driving force of division in the United States.

A pillar of democracy and free speech has become the thing it was intended to prevent and is now firmly a Fifth Column [1].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifth_column

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#340

Post by COGlory »

neonological wrote: post #330
COGlory wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Re: the chimera vs mosaic, that's not particularly true. If I take a known virus and make a single mutation (insertion of a furin site in this case), then I wind up with the same virus, + a furin. If I take that mutated virus, and then passage it through multiple generations in lab grown hosts, it will mutate at random throughout the genome. The exact rate and the time it would take is heavily debated, but one import…

Why in your opinion is the lab leak so low in probability?

Primarily Occam's razor. The total area available to coronaviruses in the wild to replicate and mutate in is orders of magnitude greater than the area available in a laboratory.
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