The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box? • Hacker News Board

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#281

Post by diogenescynic » Fri, May 07, 2021, 1:04 PM UTC

Jeema101 wrote: post #275

uvesten wrote: post #251

I think most people are confused because of CCP’s successful disinformation campaign, and also out of fear of being seen as prejudiced. The fact is that an epidemic with a corona virus (never before or since seen in the wild) with a peculiarly efficient ability to infect humans started in the _only city in the world with a lab where gain-of-function experiments on corona viruses_ is located. Just apply occam’s razor,…

It could be that you're confusing cause and effect, though. How do we know that the virus (or a precursor) wasn't already circulating in China, and was simply detected in Wuhan because of the fact that there are experts in coronaviruses who reside there? (Also I'm not entirely sure your statement about the gain of function research is correct. A Google search doesn't seem to provide any evidence one way or another.)

Wouldn’t that be incredibly convenient and unlikely?

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#282

Post by himinlomax » Fri, May 07, 2021, 1:06 PM UTC

rlpb wrote: post #261

uvesten wrote: post #251

I think most people are confused because of CCP’s successful disinformation campaign, and also out of fear of being seen as prejudiced. The fact is that an epidemic with a corona virus (never before or since seen in the wild) with a peculiarly efficient ability to infect humans started in the _only city in the world with a lab where gain-of-function experiments on corona viruses_ is located. Just apply occam’s razor,…

> The fact is that an epidemic with a corona virus (never before or since seen in the wild) with a peculiarly efficient ability to infect humans started in the _only city in the world with a lab where gain-of-function experiments on corona viruses_ is located. Just apply occam’s razor, and then you are done. What's the reason the lab is located in that city? Is there an underlying causal connection? For example, is W…

> What's the reason the lab is located in that city? Is there an underlying causal connection?

I thought so initially, but then:

1. look at the size of China; even assuming bats are found only in half of it, and maybe that Wuhan has more bats than other cities, that's still pretty fucking unlucky.

2. the bats in question are not from the same province anyway

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#283

Post by TN1ck » Fri, May 07, 2021, 1:06 PM UTC

Jeema101 wrote: post #275

uvesten wrote: post #251

I think most people are confused because of CCP’s successful disinformation campaign, and also out of fear of being seen as prejudiced. The fact is that an epidemic with a corona virus (never before or since seen in the wild) with a peculiarly efficient ability to infect humans started in the _only city in the world with a lab where gain-of-function experiments on corona viruses_ is located. Just apply occam’s razor,…

It could be that you're confusing cause and effect, though. How do we know that the virus (or a precursor) wasn't already circulating in China, and was simply detected in Wuhan because of the fact that there are experts in coronaviruses who reside there? (Also I'm not entirely sure your statement about the gain of function research is correct. A Google search doesn't seem to provide any evidence one way or another.)

Interesting point, similar to why the „Spanish flu“ is called like that even though it originated in the US.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#284

Post by himinlomax » Fri, May 07, 2021, 1:07 PM UTC

dirtyid wrote: post #233

didericis wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I lean towards the lab hypothesis due to China’s behavior early in the pandemic. I have a difficult time understanding why they would have been arresting doctors who were talking about the virus if it were natural. The transition from arresting doctors to locking down cities doesn’t make much sense otherwise. You could argue they had motivation to arrest doctors talking about a natural infection if they thought they…

>I have a difficult time understanding why they would have been arresting doctors who were talking about the virus if it were natural. No doctors were arrested early on. Few got cold tea lectures about spreading rumors that literal SARs returned not novel SARs like virus. Signed boilerplate paperwork and was released back to work. This is generic behavior for "picking quarrels and provoking trouble" tier infractions.…

> No doctors were arrested early on.

That's a lie.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#285

Post by AzzieElbab » Fri, May 07, 2021, 1:09 PM UTC

newacct583 wrote: post #269

AzzieElbab wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read Josh Rogin earlier articles on the subject. He also recently implicated Fauchi for covertly funding gain of function research, and he is pushing for congressional oversight/investigation https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/cong...

> He also recently implicated Fauchi for covertly funding gain of function research I'm sorry, that essay (which is an opinion piece, not a work of investigative journalism) says absolutely nothing of the sort. What's your source on that? That's a pretty ridiculous accusation if you don't have evidence.

Rogin covers this in his book “Chaos under heaven” and his earlier articles. Here is Rogan/Rogin snippet https://youtu.be/IqhKlkkc2Eo

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#286

Post by gruez » Fri, May 07, 2021, 1:09 PM UTC

pclmulqdq wrote: post #274

AzzieElbab wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read Josh Rogin earlier articles on the subject. He also recently implicated Fauchi for covertly funding gain of function research, and he is pushing for congressional oversight/investigation https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/cong...

Fauci and his close colleagues (including the current head of the CDC) were ardent proponents of gain of function research, and funded gain of function research at the WIV to the tune of millions of dollars. Didn't anybody think it was weird that the head of the NIH, a research institution, not a public health institution, became the top public health communicator during COVID instead of the heads of the CDC? He had…

>Didn't anybody think it was weird that the head of the NIH, a research institution, not a public health institution, became the top public health communicator during COVID instead of the heads of the CDC? He had a massive conflict of interest and wanted to protect it.

1. How does being the "top public health communicator" protect his conflict of interest?

2. Fauci isn't the head of the NIH, his position was "Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases"

3. Sure, it might sound weird, but what does previous pandemics show? Who was "top public health communicator" during the previous pandemics?

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#287

Post by curation » Fri, May 07, 2021, 1:11 PM UTC

alexnewman wrote: post #56

inciampati wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If Covid turns out to be a lab escape (which is a big if), It seems like we don't have evidence, but the natural evolutionary experiment that's occurred provides a staggering amount. We can see from the virus phylogeny that: 1. The virus entered the human population in October 2019. All known SARS2 sequences are related in a single clade that, under very soft assumptions about mutation rate, would coalesce in late…

Except if china covered up that it was a lab leak for political reasons, one can argue the entire pandemic was their fault. Alas, the crime is covering it up, even if all the institutions set the safety standards. No different than any other crime. It’s like hiding a chemical fire when it’s burning down your neighbors house and then they throw water on it and make it worse.

What if America is covering up the leak? https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-admin-pulls-nih-grant-...

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#288

Post by himinlomax » Fri, May 07, 2021, 1:11 PM UTC

tomp wrote: post #174

ximeng wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe the lab origin theory is flawed based on the scientific reasoning, not the meta analysis. I agree that the meta analysis is inconclusive as it is not emphasising the science enough. The feeling I get is China doesn't really want to talk about it because it encourages ideologically motivated people to attack China, and serious scientists are mostly not convinced that this is a lab escape and so don't feel th…

I find it hard to take seriously any “scientist” that dismisses an idea as a “conspiracy theory” (i.e. a concept developed by the CIA specifically to discredit political opponents) as opposed to using actual rational / scientific arguments. At best, it demonstrates intellectual laziness, at worst a political / ideological conviction, neither of which is a hallmark of a good scientist.

The problem with calling it a conspiracy theory does not hinge on whatever the CIA may or may not have used the expression for, but rather on the unassailable fact that there is no implied conspiracy in said theory. It's an accident theory, calling it a conspiracy theory is just as wrong as saying that James Dean died in a Porsche conspiracy.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#289

Post by COGlory » Fri, May 07, 2021, 1:12 PM UTC

pizza234 wrote: post #192

I'm very confused by the article. There has been an extensive analysis by a virologist on Reddit[¹], who claimed that, very simply, SARS-COV2 is a so-called "mosaic" virus, while man-made viruses are inevitably "chimera" ones. The article does not seem to make this distinction. The virologist also chimed on HN (besides, calling BS on people who were, out of ignorance, spreading false beliefs), but it seems he's not p…

Re: the chimera vs mosaic, that's not particularly true.

If I take a known virus and make a single mutation (insertion of a furin site in this case), then I wind up with the same virus, + a furin. If I take that mutated virus, and then passage it through multiple generations in lab grown hosts, it will mutate at random throughout the genome.

The exact rate and the time it would take is heavily debated, but one important note is that viruses with an RNA-dependant RNA polymerase are, as an evolutionary strategy, quite poor at preserving their own genetic information. They have the highest error rate of replication of any known organism. Which means, after some discrete amount of generations, you could wind up with some sort of "mosaic" + "chimeric" virus. Again though, how many generations is under hot dispute. And how long that would take in nature vs in a laboratory is also under hot dispute.

100% of the evidence for lab leak is circumstantial. But we know two things:

1) If I set out to design a SARS-CoV 2, it's technically feasible. And there's reason to be interested in this type of research. And lab accidents involving pathogens can and do happen.

2) There's no single piece of evidence concretely and completely ruling it out. Which is unfortunate.

I'm a structural biologist, I primarily study viruses, I also engaged heavily in that topic you mentioned (against my better judgement). At the moment, I have a mental probability (which is probably incorrect) of wild virus 90% chance, lab leak 10% chance. I'd be extremely surprised if it was a lab leak, but I also can't sufficiently falsify that hypothesis to complete write it off.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#290

Post by unishark » Fri, May 07, 2021, 1:12 PM UTC

trog wrote: post #90

seymore_12 wrote: post #61

If we apply Occam's razor [1] decision between "Wuhan, however, is home of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, a leading world center for research on coronaviruses" and "Wuhan, there is a wet market where under certain conditions virus can jump from bat to monkey to person" is relatively straightforward But then, we should probably also apply Hanlon's razor [2] "never attribute to malice that which is adequately explain…

> If we apply Occam's razor [1] decision between "Wuhan, however, is home of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, a leading world center for research on coronaviruses" and "Wuhan, there is a wet market where under certain conditions virus can jump from bat to monkey to person" is relatively straightforward Heh, what is the Razor or other applicable language construct when someone gives two options and then suggests there…

Occam's razor in terms of scientific theories means choose the theory with the fewest variables, not just compare guesstimated probabilities or something. From that, I would guess the poster means the lab leak is preferred as it has only one variable related to the possibility of a leak of viruses that are already there.