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The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

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Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#321

Post by oyashirochama »

okaram wrote: post #298
tomp wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it hard to take seriously any “scientist” that dismisses an idea as a “conspiracy theory” (i.e. a concept developed by the CIA specifically to discredit political opponents) as opposed to using actual rational / scientific arguments. At best, it demonstrates intellectual laziness, at worst a political / ideological conviction, neither of which is a hallmark of a good scientist.

But it needing a conspiracy to be kept quiet is one of the main arguments against thr lab theory. How many people (lab technicians, doctors, 'police') would know it is from a lab and are hiding that information? If the answer is 'hundreds' then the chances of it being kept hidden are very low. That is what labeling it a conspiracy theory means.

You do realize the power of China's information control system and the level of national fervor their people have right? Any mention would be investigated, probably hidden and the person and their family disappeared.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#322

Post by oyashirochama »

FabHK wrote: post #230
andreareina wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm reading it as shorthand for, "The prior probability of a lab escape is low, and we didn't see much evidence for it in this particular case, therefore we conclude that this instance being a lab escape is low", which is a fine argument.

Sure, > The prior probability of a lab escape is low but the prior probability of "a pandemic from natural causes envelops the world" is also low, say below 1% a year. But now, given that "a pandemic does envelop the world", the posterior probability of lab escape and natural cause of course rises dramatically... and then saying "we didn't see much evidence for it" on a superficial tour organised by those responsible…

Except there have been leaks for this specific lab and it has been known to have flawed training on handling of biohazardous material before.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#323

Post by unclebucknasty »

Jeema101 wrote: post #275
uvesten wrote: post #251

I think most people are confused because of CCP’s successful disinformation campaign, and also out of fear of being seen as prejudiced. The fact is that an epidemic with a corona virus (never before or since seen in the wild) with a peculiarly efficient ability to infect humans started in the _only city in the world with a lab where gain-of-function experiments on corona viruses_ is located. Just apply occam’s razor,…

It could be that you're confusing cause and effect, though. How do we know that the virus (or a precursor) wasn't already circulating in China, and was simply detected in Wuhan because of the fact that there are experts in coronaviruses who reside there? (Also I'm not entirely sure your statement about the gain of function research is correct. A Google search doesn't seem to provide any evidence one way or another.)

>How do we know that the virus [wasn't]...simply detected in Wuhan because of the fact that there are experts in coronaviruses who reside there?

Even if true, that would not explain the elaborate story, regarding the wet market there and species-jumping.

Also, seems unlikely, as there'd have to be reason to suspect a new virus was circulating at scale that required investigation by these scientists, which could have happened anywhere in the country. I mean, it's hard to understand what mechanism you're proposing for scientists residing in the city leading to the discovery of the virus circulating among the population there. It's not like the scientists simply roam the streets with some superhuman ability to detect new viruses in people.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#324

Post by didericis »

collyw wrote: post #317
didericis wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this did come from a lab, it was an accident. I think it’s unreasonable to consider the spread in China intentional, as there’s no reasonable motivation to do so. The main difference from SARS is we know there is a virology lab in Wuhan researching coronaviruses right across from the wet market considered the epicenter. I don’t know enough about the reaction to SARS to know how similar it was, but my understanding…

> as there’s no reasonable motivation to do so. China is the only major economy to have done well during the pandemic. Not saying that it was intentional but it seems somewhat naive to say there is no reasonable motivation to do so.

I don’t think it’s reasonable to assume they knew that would be the outcome, or that they would release it intentionally on their own population to affect the rest of the world.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#325

Post by analyte123 »

novaRom wrote: post #66

There is an interesting peer reviewed paper published last month with analysis of existing facts about the origin of covid-19. A part from their conclusion: More than a year after the initial documented cases in Wuhan, the source of SARS-CoV-2 has yet to be identified, and the search for a direct or intermediate host in nature has been so far unsuccessful. The low binding affinity of SARS-CoV-2 to bat ACE2 studied to…

This is covered in detail in the article. To me the smoking gun in this article is the linked video of Daszak saying "we have now found... over 100 new SARS-related coronaviruses, very close to SARS...some of them get into human cells in the lab, some of them can cause SARS disease in humanized mice models...these are a clear and present danger". I've been aware of this for many months after reading this tweet [1] which says essentially the same thing.

[1] https://twitter.com/PeterDaszak/status/1197631383470034951?s...

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#326

Post by gonehome »

followtheplot wrote: post #294

"... proponents of lab escape can explain all the available facts about SARS2 considerably more easily than can those who favor natural emergence." "The natural emergence theory battles a bristling array of implausibilities." This is a fantastic article, but amazingly almost all of it is year-old news. Most of this was known in March 2020, and nearly all of it by the end of 2020. How does it take so long for the trut…

What bothers me about it is not only did it take a long time for the “truth to win”, but mainstream media orgs actively suppressed it because of tribal stupidity.

It was used as an example of “fake news”: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/02/technology/biden-reality-...

> “ Hoaxes, lies and collective delusions aren’t new, but the extent to which millions of Americans have embraced them may be. Thirty percent of Republicans have a favorable view of QAnon, according to a recent YouGov poll. According to other polls, more than 70 percent of Republicans believe Mr. Trump legitimately won the election, and 40 percent of Americans — including plenty of Democrats — believe the baseless theory that Covid-19 was manufactured in a Chinese lab.”

What makes my blood boil about this is the NYT is supposed to be able to tell the difference - this kind of self righteous stupidity explains the rise of trump and distrust of media orgs more than anything else, it’s what lays the groundwork for baseless conspiracy.

Yes there were dumb conspiracies about a manufactured and intentionally released bio weapon, but the accidental release from the lab that actually exists and studies these exact viruses in Wuhan and the additional context of the lies from the CCP about the Pangolin (and just general suspicious blocking of access) made it a reasonable hypothesis.

What irony that in a piece pushing support for a “reality czar” (presumably to censor certain stories?) is the position of the NYT so divorced from reality itself.

Pair this with the WHO rep being afraid to say the word Taiwan and it looks bad there too: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who-ta...

In a lot of ways it feels like the west is under constant attack from disinformation and self-inflicted censorship (movies, Apple, nba, etc. all afraid to be critical of the CCP) and doesn’t even realize what’s going on. I think the CCP understands what they’re doing.

This is an ideological war, we’re already under attack, and the west is losing. The CCP (and Russia to a lesser extent) understand where our vulnerabilities lie and they’re exploiting them.

Edit: Whenever this comment reaches +1 it’s quickly downvoted to -2, dang - if you see this do you have a way to tell if this is legitimate (users behaving as they wish to) or something else? I only consistently see this behavior on comments that mention the CCP.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#327

Post by MertsA »

_trampeltier wrote: post #170

For me it felt allways a bit strange how fast china acted. The virus was very fresh, nothing was known, just a few cases and china totaly locked down millions if people. Two, three months later, when we already had high numbers if cases in the west, lockdowns started in the west also. But everybody said, "we know nothing about this new virus". For me it allways like, china knew much more about the virus early on.

China didn't act fast, they buried their head in the sand and denied it existed until the point where it was undeniable. China didn't start lockdowns until it was clear that their hospitals were going to be completely overwhelmed and that it was spreading fast. If they knew about SARS-CoV-2 they would have done that to begin with instead of jailing doctors for causing alarm.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#328

Post by adrianb »

followtheplot wrote: post #294

"... proponents of lab escape can explain all the available facts about SARS2 considerably more easily than can those who favor natural emergence." "The natural emergence theory battles a bristling array of implausibilities." This is a fantastic article, but amazingly almost all of it is year-old news. Most of this was known in March 2020, and nearly all of it by the end of 2020. How does it take so long for the trut…

One reason this theory is becoming more mainstream lately is the lack of results looking for the natural reservoir of the virus after more than 1 year of searching and an amazing number of animals tested all over China.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#330

Post by neonological »

COGlory wrote: post #289
pizza234 wrote: post #192

I'm very confused by the article. There has been an extensive analysis by a virologist on Reddit[¹], who claimed that, very simply, SARS-COV2 is a so-called "mosaic" virus, while man-made viruses are inevitably "chimera" ones. The article does not seem to make this distinction. The virologist also chimed on HN (besides, calling BS on people who were, out of ignorance, spreading false beliefs), but it seems he's not p…

Re: the chimera vs mosaic, that's not particularly true. If I take a known virus and make a single mutation (insertion of a furin site in this case), then I wind up with the same virus, + a furin. If I take that mutated virus, and then passage it through multiple generations in lab grown hosts, it will mutate at random throughout the genome. The exact rate and the time it would take is heavily debated, but one import…

Why in your opinion is the lab leak so low in probability?
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