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Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

nytimes.com

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Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#211

Post by FooBarBizBazz »

auiya wrote: post #125
beisner wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not an education problem. It's an ideology problem. A huge fraction of the country has basically lost all faith in public and academic institutions. In these polarized times, when many leaders that institution-skeptics listen to decided to make COVID a political issue in the ongoing culture war, listening to public health recommendations (including masking, vaccination) is akin to "letting the other side win". E…

> It's not an education problem. It's an ideology problem. Ideology is formed via education

Another way of putting this is that schools are organs of ideological reproduction.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#212

Post by FooBarBizBazz »

ryandrake wrote: post #198
auiya wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's not an education problem. It's an ideology problem. Ideology is formed via education

I’d argue that ideology is what fills in the voids that education hasn’t already reached. It’s like some kind of spray-foam that takes up whatever space that hasn’t yet been filled with educated thought.

The line between ("good") education and ("bad") ideology is not nearly this clear. Religions run schools for a reason. Canada started Residential Schools, and China started vocational training in Xinjiang, all for the same reason. You can call it continuing the culture, or passing on the traditions, or inculcating values, or working for progress, or social change, or cultural genocide, depending on your bent. It's the war for minds. And young minds are impressionable.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#213

Post by maxerickson »

CountDrewku wrote: post #209
maxerickson wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maintaining other interventions reduces the overshoot and makes the pandemic go away faster, it isn't an assessment of the vaccines. (Vaccinated people wearing masks doesn't make a huge difference, but it reduces friction for places like stores to just require masks instead of trying to communicate and enforce a mixed policy)

Not my point. I'm telling you that sort of rhetoric will produce an anti-vax response. It's a piss poor understanding of social reactions by the CDC/government. They will convince none of those people to get the vaccine if they continue on that path.

You can make the same argument for just about anything they say.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#214

Post by fithisux »

lol768 wrote: post #2

> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…

So people who get the vaccine are better educated? I really doubt.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#215

Post by fithisux »

dec0dedab0de wrote: post #42
lol768 wrote: post #2

> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…

Part of it is that many Americans loudly distrust the government, and other systems of power. This isn't all that irrational, because these institutions have routinely proven themselves to be untrustworty. Then there are people who are normally on board with vaccines, who are reluctant for covid because it is brand new. Just like any sysadmin worth their salt doesn't blindly install every update the moment they come…

Even the vote during the elections is selfish. And in general stupid.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#216

Post by rovolo »

CountDrewku wrote: post #208
rovolo wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That article is from 2020-03-12. By that day, we had a total of 40 deaths and 1.5k confirmed cases. It was pretty obviously spreading within the US at that point, and just closing the borders wasn't going to stop it. Headlines for context: > Trump Appears More Concerned With Closing Borders Than Testing For Coronavirus > The president has characterized the pandemic as a “foreign virus” and suggested that banning peop…

Where did I say anything about "just closing the borders"? Yes multiple approaches are necessary. My point was that if Trump had tried the same tactics NZ did he would have been met with vitriol about how racist and xenophobic he was. People still won't admit that his administration was responsible for getting the vaccine out in a timely manner. NZ had the obvious benefit of being an island with a low population that…

> if Trump had tried the same tactics NZ did he would have been met with vitriol about how racist and xenophobic he was.

This point doesn't follow from the article you linked. The HuffPo article has two major complaints:

1) Trump's major focus on dealing with covid at the moment was the existing travel restrictions for China and the new restrictions for Europe. He should have pivoted to addressing the internal spread within the US.

2) Trump was trying to direct blame to specific nationalities/ethnic groups instead of saying that anyone and any travel could be spreading the virus. They were deflect blame by calling it the "Wuhan virus" and "China coronavirus".

I guess the point I'm trying to make is that the manner he closed the borders was xenophobic. Furthermore, he wasn't doing the things necessary to stop the internal spread, and those were more important once the virus arrived. NZ's new cases only started falling in mid-April, a month after Trump's expanded travel restrictions. Additional travel restrictions were necessary, but not sufficient to reduce covid's impact.

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countri...

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#217

Post by josephcsible »

ryandrake wrote: post #200
josephcsible wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you think that? It's a risk-reward balance. Why wouldn't increasing the reward tip the scales?

At this point, we know there is close to zero risk to getting vaccinated. How much reward do we need to convince people to do it?

Right now, the reward is close to zero too. Basically the only things the CDC lets you do after being vaccinated are things you've been able to get away with the whole time anyway.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#218

Post by statop »

kickout wrote: post #207
Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why do vaccinated people still need to wear masks and why are outdoor activities being curtained when the evidence is clear they are low risk. Because they're still collecting data on whether or not vaccinated people can still be transmitters of the virus. And when visiting a business, the business doesn't know who is and isn't vaccinated, so it's easier to just still require masks on everybody. Also, imagine if we…

Just wanted to reply that I am firmly against policies like requiring masks because its easier to identify compliance, it reeks of star of david on jacket mentality. Its EASY to have draconian and blanket restrictions. Its HARD to sit down and come up with more reasonable policy that balance risk and preserving some semblance of liberty.

Just wanted to reply that wearing a mask is the reasonable policy that balances risk and preserves liberty.

There were only two segments of people who couldn’t handle the draconian blanket restrictions for a short time, the poor and the stupid. I forgive the poor, our government failed them.

Great work on the association fallacy and invoking godwin. Pieces of flare? Maybe Mike Judge can cast you in a sequel to one of his other films.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#219

Post by Sohcahtoa82 »

josephcsible wrote: post #217
ryandrake wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point, we know there is close to zero risk to getting vaccinated. How much reward do we need to convince people to do it?

Right now, the reward is close to zero too. Basically the only things the CDC lets you do after being vaccinated are things you've been able to get away with the whole time anyway.

Close to zero? You mean the likelihood of catching COVID dropping to nearly zero is worthless to you?

Also, lockdowns are likely to continue until COVID numbers drop. COVID numbers won't drop until more people get vaccinated.

The thought of "vaccines are pointless since you'll still have to mask" is extremely short-sighted.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#220

Post by ryandrake »

Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #219
josephcsible wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right now, the reward is close to zero too. Basically the only things the CDC lets you do after being vaccinated are things you've been able to get away with the whole time anyway.

Close to zero? You mean the likelihood of catching COVID dropping to nearly zero is worthless to you? Also, lockdowns are likely to continue until COVID numbers drop. COVID numbers won't drop until more people get vaccinated. The thought of "vaccines are pointless since you'll still have to mask" is extremely short-sighted.

It's like "safer cars are pointless since you still have to wear your seat belt."
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