Live data from Hacker News

Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

nytimes.com

181–190 of 223 posts

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> what about the grandma they hug when they get home from school? Why not say "don't go to Grandma's house" instead of "don't go to school"? The former is way less disruptive. > What about the teachers? Most teachers aren't high-risk. Let the ones who are teach over Zoom or get paid leave.

Some children live with their grandparents.

But most children don't. So why not let children who don't live with anyone high-risk go back to a normal life?

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#182
post #20
post #2

> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…

It's not an education problem. It's an ideology problem. A huge fraction of the country has basically lost all faith in public and academic institutions. In these polarized times, when many leaders that institution-skeptics listen to decided to make COVID a political issue in the ongoing culture war, listening to public health recommendations (including masking, vaccination) is akin to "letting the other side win". E…

> lost all faith in public and academic institutions

The people wearing masks outside, what are they afraid of and where are they placing their faith?

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was timid, but the CDC has in fact released relaxed mask guidance for vaccinated people.

the guidance that implicitly increased mask usage and confusion by claiming that vaccinated people can stop wearing masks outside even though it was already fine to be maskless outdoors?

That they made a mess of it doesn't remove it as evidence that official policies will change to account for increased vaccination.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Is this an education problem? Is there not a consistent minimum science curriculum for K-12 which covers pathogens, treatments and the history of vaccination programmes? Are there other factors that are relevant? It's not an education problem and while most comments I predict will consider that the main factor, I disagree and consider it a condescending take. We all learn about Louis Pasteur and successful eradicati…

The mixed messaging was because previous studies on influenza showed that the increased occurrence of touching one's face to adjust a mask outweighed the benefit of cloth masks. As covid-specific studies were done, it was found that masks were effective, and so the message changed. I agree that the well was poisoned in the first quarter of 2020, but strongly disagree as to the cause of that. Donald Trump publicly, re…

> it was found that masks were effective

Citation for this would be helpful.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#185
post #20
post #2

> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…

It's not an education problem. It's an ideology problem. A huge fraction of the country has basically lost all faith in public and academic institutions. In these polarized times, when many leaders that institution-skeptics listen to decided to make COVID a political issue in the ongoing culture war, listening to public health recommendations (including masking, vaccination) is akin to "letting the other side win". E…

except, these ideological beliefs are only intrinsictly deep, sparked by the republican desire to have as many polticially potent tools for their trade.

this belief is only a year ood. its not same centuries old belief,

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#186
post #7
post #2

> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…

If you want a deep dive on this, Peter Attia's last two guests on his podcast were great 1. https://peterattiamd.com/peterhotez3/ Peter Hotez on the history of anti-vax 2. https://peterattiamd.com/pauloffit2/ Paul Offit on the outlook for the coronavirus based on the current data

I'm not sure "traditional" anti-vax history or ideology is particularly relevant to the specific matter of anti-covid-vax.

The vast majority of those who eschew the current efforts have no problem with the TDAP vaccines, etc.

It's almost entirely political, along with a mistrust of the experts and authorities who proclaimed, in March of last year, that masks are ineffective and that travel restrictions are racist.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Even Fauci and the CDC to be promoting the idea that the vaccine isn't that effective. Get the vaccine! You still have to wear masks, social distance, and effectively stay locked down! This isn't because they don't trust the vaccines, it's because we haven't had enough time yet to figure out if vaccinated people can still actually spread the virus. So far , the data suggests no, but the CDC wants to play it safe.

> the CDC wants to play it safe Isn't having a policy that significantly reduces the number of people who will take the vaccine the opposite of "playing it safe"?

I would argue that anybody who thinks "Why bother getting the vaccine if I'll still have to stay locked down/masked/etc" probably would be avoiding the vaccine anyways, and this is just a convenient excuse.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the CDC wants to play it safe Isn't having a policy that significantly reduces the number of people who will take the vaccine the opposite of "playing it safe"?

I would argue that anybody who thinks "Why bother getting the vaccine if I'll still have to stay locked down/masked/etc" probably would be avoiding the vaccine anyways, and this is just a convenient excuse.

Why do you think that? It's a risk-reward balance. Why wouldn't increasing the reward tip the scales?

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#189

99.7% survival rate and those in power expect us to bend over and just ask for more violations of our civil liberties.

I'm not sure your number is accurate, but even if it is, that is a general population number and doesn't take into account the higher risk certain populations, such as over 65 or those with comorbidities. Essentially the use of that number with no context encourages people to act as if the risk is spread evenly, but an asymptomatic 18 year old has a much higher risk of killing their grandparents than 0.3%.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investi...

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#190

I'd love if someone broke down _reasons_ for vaccine hesitancy. It seems like the strategies we should develop for addressing them would be different, and that there shouldn't be a one-size-fits-all strategy, as we're trying to do today. So far, I personally have encountered the following viewpoints in my family and peer group (none of which I share) - in decreasing order of how much credence I'll give them: 1. I'm p…

How about: 5. I've already had COVID, and nothing thus far has indicated antibodies being that much less effective than a vaccine. If antibodies are claimed to wear off effectiveness, why wouldn't the vaccine just as much? Isn't the vaccine just an intentionally stimulated antibody response?

Immunity goes away after a while, just like the flu. I had Covid in March of last year and donated antibody-rich plasma but was limited in time to how long I could donate for this very reason. And variants pop up that you don't have immunity to even if you still had antibodies. I'll be 2 weeks post my second dose of Pfizer for this very reason. The most common variant in the US is now B117 (the UK variant), which I did not have, but which the vaccine is effective against.

You do NOT want to get Covid-19. Get the vaccine. I still have to use an electronic natural gas detector in our kitchen to check for gas leaks since my sense of smell is still broken. My friend's aunt just died. Her asymptomatic daughter brought Covid-19 to Passover dinner and killed her.

Post reply on HN