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Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

nytimes.com

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Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#171

Post by edmundsauto »

anonAndOn wrote: post #116
edmundsauto wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the teachers, who often feel that they are not paid enough for the regular job, don’t feel safe? I don’t get why this is so controversial - they don’t want to risk their health to teach your kids.

It's controversial because teaching in person can be done safely as evidenced by thousands of private schools during the past school year. If teacher's unions were doing what's in the best interest for the kids, they would have largely returned to school at this point. However, it has become clear that what is best for the kids is second to what is comfortable for the teachers. If this obstruction to in-class instruc…

I am not in a teacher's union, but if I were, I would want it to be focused on what's best for me - not the students. Parents and other groups are good advocates for the students.

Also, the resources available to private schools are very different than those available to public schools. The example provided shows that it is possible for some schools to return to in-person. It does not follow that it would be possible for all (or most) schools, especially as you have fewer resources available.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#172

Post by jcranmer »

CountDrewku wrote: post #89
arcticbull wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lockdown worked fine in New Zealand it not? The thing is, it’s something you have to commit to. You can’t just half ass it.

You realize they achieved this by effectively locking down their borders right? Now, imagine the response if Trump had suggested this. Actually, you don't even need to imagine it: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-coronavirus-borders_n_5...

There are some mitigating factors. The primary purpose of a border closure is to prevent, or at least control, the introduction of the virus into the country, especially to let the health services prepare better. Viewed from this context, Trump's border closures look especially asinine:

* The closure (at least with respect to Europe) occurred by which time it was widely known that the US had uncontrolled community spread.

* The closure applied only to non-Americans, which made it a really, really porous closure. New Zealand's closure applied both to Kiwis and non-Kiwis.

* The administration of the closure was also chaotic and inept. There was no real effort to screen for COVID-19 among the many people who were let in during the closure, and the fact that the arrival halls were jam-packed with people only exacerbated any potential spread that might have happened.

* Similarly, there was no real effort to use the time afforded by the closure (even had it been more effective) to improve testing and tracing infrastructure.

* The actual announcement of the rollout was extremely botched--the White House had to issue three separate statements afterwards correcting Trump's announcement.

* Finally, it's been pretty clear in the months since then that Trump believes that being proactive in the (ineffective) closure efforts is all that he should have done in response to the coronavirus, especially given his pretty active resistance to any further measures.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#173

Post by kbelder »

anonAndOn wrote: post #116
edmundsauto wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the teachers, who often feel that they are not paid enough for the regular job, don’t feel safe? I don’t get why this is so controversial - they don’t want to risk their health to teach your kids.

It's controversial because teaching in person can be done safely as evidenced by thousands of private schools during the past school year. If teacher's unions were doing what's in the best interest for the kids, they would have largely returned to school at this point. However, it has become clear that what is best for the kids is second to what is comfortable for the teachers. If this obstruction to in-class instruc…

Well, it's the teacher's union. Any benefit it from it that accrues to children is purely accidental.

Maybe kids should unionize. There's a nightmare scenario.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#174

Post by auiya »

jgwil2 wrote: post #136
auiya wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's not an education problem. It's an ideology problem. Ideology is formed via education

I think the OP was asking if it's an education problem as in, do people just not understand what a vaccine is or how it works? But that's not the issue really. The information is out there; people are just choosing to ignore it or cling to "alternative facts" for some as yet poorly understood reason.

Because critical thinking skills are severely lacking due to - you guessed it, poor education.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#175

Post by Sohcahtoa82 »

josephcsible wrote: post #157
Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, sure, the kids are incredibly unlikely to die from COVID, but what about the grandma they hug when they get home from school? What about the teachers? I agree on the outdoor activities thing, though. I go for a daily walk through trails behind my house, and I never bothered with a mask.

> what about the grandma they hug when they get home from school? Why not say "don't go to Grandma's house" instead of "don't go to school"? The former is way less disruptive. > What about the teachers? Most teachers aren't high-risk. Let the ones who are teach over Zoom or get paid leave.

Some children live with their grandparents.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#176

Post by Sohcahtoa82 »

cltby wrote: post #164
Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Politicians don't make decisions based on the opinions of experts, they make them based on what they think is going to win them the next election. Yeah, public health authorities might be saying we need to be careful with reopening schools, but if 70% (This is an example number pulled out of my ass, not an actual poll number) of the population wants schools to reopen because parents are tired of their kids being home…

The governor isn't the bad guy here. It's the supposed experts whose "neutral" opinions are politically contingent. Parents: open the schools. Experts: no, it's unsafe. Progressive politician: open the schools. Experts: great idea sir, just as we've been saying all along!

I don't think I've seen any experts saying to open the schools.

I'm sure you could cherry-pick a few doctors saying we should open them (And Fox News will absolutely give them a megaphone), but you can find doctors that think MMR vaccines cause autism. But the overall consensus AFAIK has always been to keep the schools closed.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#177

Post by kbelder »

laGrenouille wrote: post #53

I strongly suspect that the U.S. will largely return to some version of 'normal' by the end of the summer at the latest. No required masks, minimal social distancing, and a return to pre-pandemic levels of domestic travel. Under this scenario, it seems that either enough people in a region will be vaccinated to reach local herd immunity or the virus (unstopped by masks/lockdowns/distancing) will quickly infect the re…

I agree, but I wonder if 'normal' will include some increased border security and international travel restrictions? There are countries that are lagging far behind the US in vaccinations.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#178

Post by passivate »

kossTKR wrote: post #119
passivate wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Anyone should be highly sceptical of any huge corporations. That is completely different than saying calling it a vulture-like industry, or implying something about the entire industry. There are many companies - small and large in this industry. Again, you're simply diluting your own argument by making it absurd and easy to refute. I won't argue with you over specific examples of when companies (in any industry) en…

I would also describe much of the tech industry i have been part of as "vulture-like" and a pretty dirty game, that's just how it is. Maybe i just have more cynical view of the state of capitalism in our current age, but i don't this view is controversial, or taboo to say out loud. I also know a couple of fantastic film makers, though i think Hollywood, and the movie industry is pretty rotten, and my friends are just…

Its just a normal human emotion towards members of your own tribe. I transitioned out from tech into biotech, and I would probably feel the same if people leveled accusations against all tech people. I am not interested in an intellectual monk like existence. Our subjectivity is what makes us human. But to answer your question, I have no way of knowing where you're coming from other than the information you volunteer. Its no different than me calling my own brother ugly, versus a random person on the street calling my brother ugly. Those statements 'hit' differently. Similarly, you having a frank conversation with your buddies is not comparable to other conversations with strangers on the internet.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#180

Post by lamontcg »

kickout wrote: post #139
ashtonbaker wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"They" don't set the goalposts - reality does. Also, they are not saying that no level of vaccination is good enough - they are saying that the level of vaccination needed is dependent on a variety of factors, and that level is becoming increasingly difficult to reach due to variants and vaccine hesitancy. From the article: > Early on, the target herd immunity threshold was estimated to be about 60 to 70 percent of t…

when did transmissibility become a defining metric? There are more transmissible pathogens (colds, flu), but we don't change society for those. I was told that mortality was the defining metric (and thus the reason for the restrictions, to save lives), so if B.1.1.7 is less lethal, why would the transmissibility play in? Also why isn't immunization from natural infection counting? I've seen to reason to _discount_ it…

> if B.1.1.7 is less lethal, why would the transmissibility play in?

Transmissibility, viral load and virulence should all be correlated.

Alizon, S., Hurford, A., Mideo, N. and Van Baalen, M. (2009). Virulence evolution and the trade-off hypothesis: history, current state of affairs and the future. Journal of Evolutionary Biology 22, 245–259.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1420-9101...

When you read stories that a particular variant increases one or two of those three and not the other, you should treat it skeptically. All three should tend to move together.

B.1.1.7 is most likely more lethal, any studies contradicting that are probably not picking appropriate controls to compare against (e.g. the most vulnerable sub-populations of demographic slices having been already hit by old school D614G, so lethality appearing to fall no matter what).

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