Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe • Hacker News Board

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#111

Post by 2lwxxtj » Mon, May 03, 2021, 6:27 PM UTC

aphextron wrote: post #32

_-david-_ wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Is this an education problem? Is there not a consistent minimum science curriculum for K-12 which covers pathogens, treatments and the history of vaccination programmes? Are there other factors that are relevant? I think it is more complicated than just education. The general sentiment I hear from people is in the past we were told that once we get vaccinated we could return to normal. Now we are told we still need…

>People are losing faith in the scientists because of their ever changing statements. I'd say this perfectly illustrates the complete lack of understanding of how science works among the public. There is never one specific stance that will always be right and hold up to all scrutiny. It's just highly intelligent educated experts giving their best possible estimate based on current data. As the data evolves, so do the…

>It's just highly intelligent educated experts giving their best possible estimate based on current data.

OK, but can we trust them to completely put out of their mind the interests of the people signing their paychecks? Do the people signing the paychecks blindly hire scientists without considering whether the scientists will be mindful of their interests?

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#112

Post by leetcrew » Mon, May 03, 2021, 6:29 PM UTC

simonsarris wrote: post #101

kickout wrote: post #40

This story is also an example of the conflicting stories we get out of leaders? How it is possible we'll _never_ reach herd immunity? They were saying we needed that just last summer! That loss of trust in giving us correct/congruent information from leaders is absolutely hurting America right now

Manipulating the population behavior by manipulating goalposts seems to have been intentional the whole time. From the NYT in December titled How Much Herd Immunity Is Enough? > In a telephone interview the next day, Dr. Fauci acknowledged that he had slowly but deliberately been moving the goal posts. He is doing so, he said, partly based on new science, and partly on his gut feeling that the country is finally read…

that's incredible. how can a guy with such a high-level, public-facing position be so bad at interviews? I can understand why a public health official might be inclined to exaggerate, simplify, and/or mislead to get the general public to follow the program. I don't approve, but I understand why people might think that's justified. what I don't understand is how you can do all that and not have the common sense to refrain from admitting to it in plain english. isn't that public office 101?

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#113

Post by rsynnott » Mon, May 03, 2021, 6:30 PM UTC

kickout wrote: post #40

This story is also an example of the conflicting stories we get out of leaders? How it is possible we'll _never_ reach herd immunity? They were saying we needed that just last summer! That loss of trust in giving us correct/congruent information from leaders is absolutely hurting America right now

> How it is possible we'll _never_ reach herd immunity?

If people refuse to take the vaccine, then obviously the US will never reach it. It's not inconsistent to say that the US _must_ reach it, yet will not.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#114

Post by rsynnott » Mon, May 03, 2021, 6:32 PM UTC

kickout wrote: post #62

MattGaiser wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How it is possible we'll _never_ reach herd immunity? It does not circulate sufficiently but neither is a critical mass of vaccinated people reached due to vaccine reluctance.

My impression is they are moving the goal posts and saying _no_ level of vaccination is 'good enough for herd immunity'

Eh? Where'd you get that? There is a level of vaccination that's probably good enough, but it's likely in the 80-90% range, and the US may not get there (though other countries will).

The goal posts have moved a bit (largely because the shiny new Kent variant is more infectious, and because it's now fairly clear that some variants can break through natural immunity) but that's the virus's doing, not the experts.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#115

Post by arcticbull » Mon, May 03, 2021, 6:32 PM UTC

krona wrote: post #90

arcticbull wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There were many technological advancement that allowed the release of the vaccine faster than ever. Often the long pole and vaccine development is the testing period. The thing is, when a non-trivial percentage of the population is actively infected, you can test really quickly. At this point the vaccines have made their way the tens or hundreds of millions of people, where the usual phase 3 clinical trial lasts a lo…

We don't know what the long term effects of either the virus or the vaccine are on a human. Hell we can't possibly even have data on what the long term effects are on humans. It doesn't matter how many people have been exposed.

Luckily we know how vaccines work. There’s nothing particularly new about this one. Vaccines arent magic; you trigger an immune response by getting a part of the virus into your body. It’s a pretty understood process.

So let me ask you instead, how many years would make you feel comfortable? Five? 10? 50? I prefer to rely on the wealth of existing information, and knowing the cost of inaction is much greater than action.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#116

Post by anonAndOn » Mon, May 03, 2021, 6:32 PM UTC

edmundsauto wrote: post #60

anonAndOn wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US education: Those asymptomatic sweethearts are largely languishing, at least the ones in part-time distance learning environments. This has not been the case for those kids that could afford to attend private schools as many have been attending classes at school for most/all of the entire school year. So you've got private school kids on track and public school kids with stunted academic development because why, ex…

Because the teachers, who often feel that they are not paid enough for the regular job, don’t feel safe? I don’t get why this is so controversial - they don’t want to risk their health to teach your kids.

It's controversial because teaching in person can be done safely as evidenced by thousands of private schools during the past school year. If teacher's unions were doing what's in the best interest for the kids, they would have largely returned to school at this point. However, it has become clear that what is best for the kids is second to what is comfortable for the teachers. If this obstruction to in-class instruction continues, the short-sightedness of this position will become readily apparent in the Fall as many families who have the means will go private (if they haven't already) thus depriving the schools of both tax dollars and the critically-important engaged families that support many of the extra/co-curricular amenities of public schools. Voucher Programs/charter schools/religious schools will all benefit to the detriment of public schools.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#117

Post by Sohcahtoa82 » Mon, May 03, 2021, 6:36 PM UTC

kickout wrote: post #40

This story is also an example of the conflicting stories we get out of leaders? How it is possible we'll _never_ reach herd immunity? They were saying we needed that just last summer! That loss of trust in giving us correct/congruent information from leaders is absolutely hurting America right now

Downvoted. I'd like to snuff out this notion that changing your story after receiving new information is a negative thing.

Research, especially on something like a new virus, takes time. We know more about the virus now than we did a year ago, so of course predictions and recommendations are going to change. That is not weakness, that is science.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#118

Post by HarryHirsch » Mon, May 03, 2021, 6:37 PM UTC

anonAndOn wrote: post #116

edmundsauto wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the teachers, who often feel that they are not paid enough for the regular job, don’t feel safe? I don’t get why this is so controversial - they don’t want to risk their health to teach your kids.

It's controversial because teaching in person can be done safely as evidenced by thousands of private schools during the past school year. If teacher's unions were doing what's in the best interest for the kids, they would have largely returned to school at this point. However, it has become clear that what is best for the kids is second to what is comfortable for the teachers. If this obstruction to in-class instruc…

Schools are the main source of spread between households. Consider the experience from Israel, the disease appeared to be under control and on the way out, until they opened school. Understandable that any teacher wouldn't wish to bring it home.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#119

Post by kossTKR » Mon, May 03, 2021, 6:38 PM UTC

passivate wrote: post #110

kossTKR wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree. Most people actually working with the actual science are good people - just as in tech. The problem comes from ruthless profit incentives, lobbying, marketing, investor pressure etc. Nowhere did i say that the everyone in the industry are bad people, my whole point was about history of shadiness. That's not controversial - again just as in the sector big-data / internet business that i work in. Anyo…

>Anyone should be highly sceptical of any huge corporations. That is completely different than saying calling it a vulture-like industry, or implying something about the entire industry. There are many companies - small and large in this industry. Again, you're simply diluting your own argument by making it absurd and easy to refute. I won't argue with you over specific examples of when companies (in any industry) en…

I would also describe much of the tech industry i have been part of as "vulture-like" and a pretty dirty game, that's just how it is.

Maybe i just have more cynical view of the state of capitalism in our current age, but i don't this view is controversial, or taboo to say out loud.

I also know a couple of fantastic film makers, though i think Hollywood, and the movie industry is pretty rotten, and my friends are just like "yeah it's a rotten industry" then they laugh when talking about industry stuff.

Why do you have to see it as a personal part of your identity and take it personally?

We live in a world of dirty games, the monetary hierarchy is not fair, nepotism and family rule is widespread, lobbyism is out of control, etc. none of this i controversial.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#120

Post by Sohcahtoa82 » Mon, May 03, 2021, 6:43 PM UTC

CountDrewku wrote: post #55

lol768 wrote: post #2

> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…

>This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in the UK has increased to 94% (late March) since December 2020 and actual take-up in my area isn't far off (about 91%). That's almost 1 in 3 people in the US who are reluctant to get vaccinated. Blame the media and hypocritical politicians who talk out both sides of their mouths. You can't expect the citizens to want the vaccine while simultaneously doing sensationali…

> Even Fauci and the CDC to be promoting the idea that the vaccine isn't that effective. Get the vaccine! You still have to wear masks, social distance, and effectively stay locked down!

This isn't because they don't trust the vaccines, it's because we haven't had enough time yet to figure out if vaccinated people can still actually spread the virus. So far, the data suggests no, but the CDC wants to play it safe.