Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe • Hacker News Board

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#21

Post by neither_color » Mon, May 03, 2021, 5:24 PM UTC

lol768 wrote: post #2

> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…

>Is this an education problem? Is there not a consistent minimum science curriculum for K-12 which covers pathogens, treatments and the history of vaccination programmes? Are there other factors that are relevant?

It's not an education problem and while most comments I predict will consider that the main factor, I disagree and consider it a condescending take. We all learn about Louis Pasteur and successful eradications in the past. It's a cultural/philosophical problem. Right-leaning americans in general value a certain degree of autonomy over a guarantee of safety and if you coerce them "for their own good" they'll double down on whatever the opposite of what you're suggesting is. In the case of this pandemic, all of the mixed messaging regarding mask-wearing and other prevention measures poisoned the well in the first quarter of 2020, before the messaging became consistent by the summer. This turned a health debate into a struggle for rights: "We're all in this together" vs "99% let me take my chances". It's the same debate as 2A. For 2A absolutists, no statistic has come out that justifies giving up what's perceived as an inalienable right.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#22

Post by HarryHirsch » Mon, May 03, 2021, 5:25 PM UTC

aphextron wrote: post #17

Like it or not this is now an endemic threat. Living a normal life was absolutely reckless in the beginning because we didn't have the vaccines, and it was a novel virus with totally unknown characteristics. But with it, your risk of developing health complications or being hospitalized from COVID is practically nonexistent. We will end up living with this now the same way we do with everything else.

You hope they adjust architecture. When you teach introductory lectures in a poorly ventilated theatre to 500 students you have a problem.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#23

Post by nitrogen » Mon, May 03, 2021, 5:25 PM UTC

SigmundA wrote: post #8

lol768 wrote: post #2

> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…

Yes from what I have seen its an education problem. The people I know who are reluctant have no clear idea how vaccines work or a good grasp of statistics. They generally seem to be ok with taking the risk of getting the virus but perceive a higher risk with taking a new vaccine even though the evidence is to the contrary. Most of these people are on the anti-vax, all natural, anti-gmo, wifi and microwaves cause canc…

Most of these people are on the anti-vax, all natural, anti-gmo, wifi and microwaves cause cancer spectrum

Lumping all of the opposition into a single category and assuming they are all the same is both dehumanizing and counterproductive.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#24

Post by minkzilla » Mon, May 03, 2021, 5:27 PM UTC

lol768 wrote: post #2

> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…

No I don’t think it’s education. I think it’s a mistrust of a system that has screwed people over for money many times in recent memory.

Many healthcare workers originally said they weren’t willing to get the vaccine[0], people who are clearly educated, maybe not specifically about vaccines, but about medicine in general.

[0] https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/nearly-40percent-of-hea...

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#25

Post by [deleted] » Mon, May 03, 2021, 5:27 PM UTC

lol768 wrote: post #2

> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…

[deleted]

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#26

Post by [deleted] » Mon, May 03, 2021, 5:28 PM UTC

HarryHirsch wrote: post #22

aphextron wrote: post #17

Like it or not this is now an endemic threat. Living a normal life was absolutely reckless in the beginning because we didn't have the vaccines, and it was a novel virus with totally unknown characteristics. But with it, your risk of developing health complications or being hospitalized from COVID is practically nonexistent. We will end up living with this now the same way we do with everything else.

You hope they adjust architecture. When you teach introductory lectures in a poorly ventilated theatre to 500 students you have a problem.

[deleted]

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#27

Post by anonAndOn » Mon, May 03, 2021, 5:30 PM UTC

HarryHirsch wrote: post #11

lol768 wrote: post #2

> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…

Just look at the standoff between the teacher unions and the CDC. The unions take the side of their members who would rather stay away from the little asymptomatic sweethearts while the CDC takes the government's side and would like to have school going again so both parents can be back at work. If the government's messaging is that the economy takes precedence over individual safety, that's the priors that people wo…

US education: Those asymptomatic sweethearts are largely languishing, at least the ones in part-time distance learning environments. This has not been the case for those kids that could afford to attend private schools as many have been attending classes at school for most/all of the entire school year. So you've got private school kids on track and public school kids with stunted academic development because why, exactly?

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#28

Post by mr_cyborg » Mon, May 03, 2021, 5:31 PM UTC

I wanted to add that a lot of the people I know who are “vaccine hesitant” are just waiting a little longer to see how things go. I don’t see a whole lot of representation of folks who intend to get the vaccine this summer when I read publications and articles about it, but I would wager that there’s more people intending to get it but not quite yet than we think.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#29

Post by [deleted] » Mon, May 03, 2021, 5:32 PM UTC

neither_color wrote: post #21

lol768 wrote: post #2

> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…

>Is this an education problem? Is there not a consistent minimum science curriculum for K-12 which covers pathogens, treatments and the history of vaccination programmes? Are there other factors that are relevant? It's not an education problem and while most comments I predict will consider that the main factor, I disagree and consider it a condescending take. We all learn about Louis Pasteur and successful eradicati…

[deleted]

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#30

Post by klmadfejno » Mon, May 03, 2021, 5:32 PM UTC

distribot wrote: post #3

lol768 wrote: post #2

> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…

Don't people who've been infected count toward the herd immunity. That ~30% of Americans. I know there's some overlap but if we can get to 70% of people vaccinated I think we'd be really close, no?

The flaw with these kinds of statements is that it assumes the 70% is uniformly distributed throughout a population. Obviously, if an entire town decides to avoid vaccination, it'll be vulnerable. Less obvious is if certain social circles don't get vaccinated such that things look geographically well mixed, but in terms of actual interaction patterns, not so much.

Reinfection and new variants surviving in networks like this imply COVID will be around for a very long time.