Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe
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Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe
#2> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in the UK has increased to 94% (late March) since December 2020 and actual take-up in my area isn't far off (about 91%). That's almost 1 in 3 people in the US who are reluctant to get vaccinated.
Is this an education problem? Is there not a consistent minimum science curriculum for K-12 which covers pathogens, treatments and the history of vaccination programmes? Are there other factors that are relevant?
Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe
#3> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…
Don't people who've been infected count toward the herd immunity. That ~30% of Americans. I know there's some overlap but if we can get to 70% of people vaccinated I think we'd be really close, no?
Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe
#4> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…
Don't people who've been infected count toward the herd immunity. That ~30% of Americans. I know there's some overlap but if we can get to 70% of people vaccinated I think we'd be really close, no?
Israel has 60% vaccinated and they have controlled the pandemic through that. The US probably has more natural immunity than them so overall I’d say we are in a decent position. The issue will be localized outbreaks in places with less vaccine coverage.
Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe
#5> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…
Don't people who've been infected count toward the herd immunity. That ~30% of Americans. I know there's some overlap but if we can get to 70% of people vaccinated I think we'd be really close, no?
There have been high-profile cases of re-infection in India, and the experience from Manaus tells the same story. Expecting herd immunity from letting the disease spread is wishful thinking.
Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe
#6> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…
Have you read any articles on this subject? There are many factors affecting someone's medical decisions. It's not as simple as some K-12 education plan.
Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe
#7> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…
If you want a deep dive on this, Peter Attia's last two guests on his podcast were great
1. https://peterattiamd.com/peterhotez3/ Peter Hotez on the history of anti-vax 2. https://peterattiamd.com/pauloffit2/ Paul Offit on the outlook for the coronavirus based on the current data
Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe
#8> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…
Yes from what I have seen its an education problem. The people I know who are reluctant have no clear idea how vaccines work or a good grasp of statistics. They generally seem to be ok with taking the risk of getting the virus but perceive a higher risk with taking a new vaccine even though the evidence is to the contrary.
Most of these people are on the anti-vax, all natural, anti-gmo, wifi and microwaves cause cancer spectrum and it all comes from a lack of understanding the science and technology of modern life.
Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe
#9Earlier quoted context omitted.
Don't people who've been infected count toward the herd immunity. That ~30% of Americans. I know there's some overlap but if we can get to 70% of people vaccinated I think we'd be really close, no?
There have been high-profile cases of re-infection in India, and the experience from Manaus tells the same story. Expecting herd immunity from letting the disease spread is wishful thinking.
It's important to understand why reinfection might not be such a big problem.
First, the virus can only spread broadly with an R0 above 1. Even if some portion of the population is susceptible to reinfection (vaccinated or natural immunity), so far there's been little evidence that it's widespread. In a fully vaccinated population, the R0 will only reach above 1 if the virus is able to break through vaccines wholesale.
Second, the vaccines seem to be highly effective at preventing serious cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, even in reinfected individuals.
Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe
#10Earlier quoted context omitted.
Don't people who've been infected count toward the herd immunity. That ~30% of Americans. I know there's some overlap but if we can get to 70% of people vaccinated I think we'd be really close, no?
There have been high-profile cases of re-infection in India, and the experience from Manaus tells the same story. Expecting herd immunity from letting the disease spread is wishful thinking.
No matter what you'd see greatly reduced spread. Ideally everyone would be vaccinated, but it would be unwise to ignore the substantial overlap between antivax people and antimask people. Everything pushing R beneath 1 is a good thing that should be counted.