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Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

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Re: Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

#71
post #35
post #34

I've never built a PC. I expect the crytpocurency bubble to collapse because my tech ignorant accountant friend asked what I know about building a crypto mining rig. What should I read to prepare myself to take advantage of the cheap used high end hardware that will hit the market do build a Windows or Linux system for my own pleasure.

Coinbase had IPO, meaning serious business bought their shares, hedge and pension funds - I would be careful expecting any kind of normalcy in the next 2-3 years.

>serious business bought their shares, hedge and pension funds

Your assuming that proves a point, but it doesn't.

Re: Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

#72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Chia" also refers to the plant "Salvia hispanica", that's Nahuatl/Mexicano.

I'm from the U.S., and when I hear/read "Chia", I think of the Chia Pet. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chia_Pet

They are one and the same!

Re: Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

#73
post #35
post #34

I've never built a PC. I expect the crytpocurency bubble to collapse because my tech ignorant accountant friend asked what I know about building a crypto mining rig. What should I read to prepare myself to take advantage of the cheap used high end hardware that will hit the market do build a Windows or Linux system for my own pleasure.

Coinbase had IPO, meaning serious business bought their shares, hedge and pension funds - I would be careful expecting any kind of normalcy in the next 2-3 years.

Coinbase had a direct listing. There was no roadshow to line up institutional investors. I'm sure some big-time investors bought shares, but I'm sure some retail ones did, too. You know who sold? Early Coinbase investors and employees.

Re: Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

#74
post #34

I've never built a PC. I expect the crytpocurency bubble to collapse because my tech ignorant accountant friend asked what I know about building a crypto mining rig. What should I read to prepare myself to take advantage of the cheap used high end hardware that will hit the market do build a Windows or Linux system for my own pleasure.

I wouldn't count on the cheap hardware, it may be pretty much broken after endless full power use for mining.

Miners usually undervolt the GPUs to mine at peak efficiency, not peak performance and power consumption. Since chip wear correlates with power usage and heat production, GPU usage for mining is actually much less taxing for the hardware than typical gaming use with its frequent overclocking and rapid alterations between low and maximum power use.

Re: Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

#75
post #34

I've never built a PC. I expect the crytpocurency bubble to collapse because my tech ignorant accountant friend asked what I know about building a crypto mining rig. What should I read to prepare myself to take advantage of the cheap used high end hardware that will hit the market do build a Windows or Linux system for my own pleasure.

Presumably you're familiar with ebay?

(I wouldn't necessarily trust parts that have been worked to death btw)

Re: Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

#76
post #38

Bitcoin ate all the GPUs and I said nothing because I was not a gamer. Now Chia wants to eat all the hard disks, and I am pissed . I declare war on hegemonizing proof-of-waste swarms. Burn the coins. I want that disk space back.

Chia claims to be a more green solution. Even going as far as to call their white paper a "green paper." Not sure anyone told them that burning through hard drives isn't very green either. [1] https://www.chia.net/greenpaper/

[deleted]

Re: Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

#77
post #32

It's really important that manufacturers start responding to cryptocurrency induced shortages with auctions. The demand from the cryptocurrency users will be extremely high until they've spent a particular amount in total. They can do that with 1000 units, or with 5000 units. Obviously auctioning off units would be bad for having predictable prices for retail customers but that is irrelevant if aggressive miner buyin…

This is asinine. You would be making the product only available to those who can turn the highest profit from it and would lose the rest of your customer base to your competitor who is smart enough to not use an auction model. The entire cash flow would come from one narrow sector which would eventually collapse, leaving you with no customers. Business models evolve toward efficiency, and there is a good reason no on…

You realize capitalism is a system for allocating scare goods, right? An auction model means manufacturers benefit directly, and unless they're in a cartel, the high prices incentivize them to increase production. We see this happen all the time in the oil marker with marginal producers entering and exiting the market. Without an auction, anyone lucky enough to win the HDD lottery will have the same incentive, only they'll sell it on ebay.

Re: Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

#78
There are quite a few (good) comments here focusing on the crypto aspect of this HDD supply shortage.

That aside, to those of you that are scanning the comments here without having actually read the OP's reddit link - I'd urge you to read the linked page.

It is an incredibly insightful summary of the HDD supply chain.

(Whether it was indeed written by an "industry insider" or not is irrelevant; their analysis of the HDD market is highly informative)

Re: Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

#79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just don’t get the sustainability argument.. Who decided that all computing must be for a sustainable or meaningful purpose? Cryptocurrency, as wasteful as it might appear, is like a drop in the ocean compared to the data centers of Google, Facebook, Microsoft, etc. Likes on Facebook provide much less value to society than a distributed currency that circumvents central control over the financial system. Second, Cr…

> Cryptocurrency, as wasteful as it might appear, is like a drop in the ocean compared to the data centers of Google, Facebook, Microsoft, etc. It isn't, as 'mytherin points out. > Likes on Facebook provide much less value to society That's absurdly untrue. For all the warts of big social media players, they still provide tremendous social value - rich long-distance communication, organizing ad-hoc groups of people (…

> Not that much on an ongoing basis. It's also O(n) with respect to the amount of extra money you need in circulation.

I think this isn't quite correct, but is even more in favor of fiat currency. Minting money costs in proportion to the number of bills/coins. If more value is needed, the denomination being printed can be changed to represent more value with the same cost.

On the other hand, cryptocurrencies require wasting resources proportional to the total value represented by them. Any less and they are vulnerable to attacks. Therefore, (as I'm sure will come as a shock to nobody) this is another way that cryptocurrencies scale worse than fiat.

Re: Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

#80
post #38

Bitcoin ate all the GPUs and I said nothing because I was not a gamer. Now Chia wants to eat all the hard disks, and I am pissed . I declare war on hegemonizing proof-of-waste swarms. Burn the coins. I want that disk space back.

Ethereum are the GPU's. Bitcoin utilizes ASIC's designed only for Bitcoin. This is an eventual e-waste issue, but not a GPU supply issue.

There was a period between about 2011 and 2014 when the fastest way to mine bitcoin was on a GPU and it did cause a shortage in cards:

https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/12/11/amds-graph...

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