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Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

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31–40 of 134 posts

Re: Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

#31
post #24

TIL all it takes to be a reputable "industry insider" is an anonymous reddit account.

Do you really need to be an "industry insider" to make any of their observations? Nothing they said seems to require they be actual "industry insider".

Exactly. These are all check-able facts (not, e.g., allegations of secret dealings or something). The fact that he works in the industry is what allows him to write this compactly; it's not proof of correctness.

Re: Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

#32
It's really important that manufacturers start responding to cryptocurrency induced shortages with auctions.

The demand from the cryptocurrency users will be extremely high until they've spent a particular amount in total. They can do that with 1000 units, or with 5000 units.

Obviously auctioning off units would be bad for having predictable prices for retail customers but that is irrelevant if aggressive miner buying is buying up all the supply.

Moreover, shareholders at the manufacturers should be demanding it: they're leaving money on the table.

Re: Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

#33

It's interesting that that's precisely where we are with video cards-- the easiest way to get one is to buy a prebuilt system from any of the big names. It's really not much of a stretch to see HDs go to exactly that same pressure point.

Our IT guy told us, that (about 10pcs) the Dell machines he ordered (T5810 or something similar) a couple of weeks ago will ship in July earliest(although the online shops states better delivery times). So there could be some shortage too or at least logistical problems...

Re: Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

#34
I've never built a PC. I expect the crytpocurency bubble to collapse because my tech ignorant accountant friend asked what I know about building a crypto mining rig.

What should I read to prepare myself to take advantage of the cheap used high end hardware that will hit the market do build a Windows or Linux system for my own pleasure.

Re: Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

#35
post #34

I've never built a PC. I expect the crytpocurency bubble to collapse because my tech ignorant accountant friend asked what I know about building a crypto mining rig. What should I read to prepare myself to take advantage of the cheap used high end hardware that will hit the market do build a Windows or Linux system for my own pleasure.

Coinbase had IPO, meaning serious business bought their shares, hedge and pension funds - I would be careful expecting any kind of normalcy in the next 2-3 years.

Re: Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

#36
post #32

It's really important that manufacturers start responding to cryptocurrency induced shortages with auctions. The demand from the cryptocurrency users will be extremely high until they've spent a particular amount in total. They can do that with 1000 units, or with 5000 units. Obviously auctioning off units would be bad for having predictable prices for retail customers but that is irrelevant if aggressive miner buyin…

Burning your regular customers is terrible business practice. It's not always about the money.

Also, remember when Martin Shkreli increased the price of an anti-parasitic drug by 5000%? That upset a lot of people, and arguably it's what put him in jail. Of course, HDDs are not quite the same as vital medicine.

Re: Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

#37
post #34

I've never built a PC. I expect the crytpocurency bubble to collapse because my tech ignorant accountant friend asked what I know about building a crypto mining rig. What should I read to prepare myself to take advantage of the cheap used high end hardware that will hit the market do build a Windows or Linux system for my own pleasure.

I wouldn't count on it collapsing any time soon. Not with everyone from Visa to Time magazine jumping on the bandwagon

>I've never built a PC.

Definitely worthwhile. Basically lego for adults. Tons of good info here

https://old.reddit.com/r/buildapc/

Re: Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

#39
post #26

Hm, based on this I ordered 1x16TB and 2x14TB HDD drives right away (the maximum allowed at that seller, ~60% surcharge to the price from a week ago). If HDDs/SSDs end up as obtainable as GPUs, we are going to experience some serious troubles... I somehow managed to get 3x3090FE but that was just super lucky timing. I am not sure what grad student Deep Learning researchers are going to do?

Maybe they finally turn their attention to models of manageable complexity and stop trying to create magic with models of enormous size that even in theory benefit only Big Adtech. Even mass surveillance requires rather small models.

Re: Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

#40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Opportunity cost. By keeping my cash in bitcoin I can now buy (well, not with this shortage) 5 times more hard drives than last black Friday.

> By keeping my cash in bitcoin I can now buy (well, not with this shortage) 5 times more hard drives than last black Friday. Probably only 4 after you pay the appropriate capital gains taxes, I'd hope. :)

If they have to. Not sure how it works in Romania, but in Germany you can sell coins held for 1 year or more without having to pay taxes.
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