771–780 of 821 posts
This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…
This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…
I remember reading a conspiracy theory back in ~ April 2020 that said "what happened to the flu" / "why are flu cases down so sharply?" It was literally so stupid that it took me a minute or two to understand that the implication was that conspiracy theorists think flu cases were being categorized as covid.
If lockdown measures, social distancing, mask wearing, etc. were the true cause of the massive reduction in flu cases, we would expect to also see that countries and US states that failed to enact measures would be reporting high flu numbers to the WHO.
This doesn't appear to be happening. Instead, "the drop-off in flu numbers was both swift and universal." (article quote)
This universality suggests a data problem to me rather than an environmental change.
This doesn't appear to be happening. Instead, "the drop-off in flu numbers was both swift and universal." (article quote)
This universality suggests a data problem to me rather than an environmental change.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
During the last year, we have done more than enough to protect old people for the time being.
The people who watched grandma die in the hospital through an iPad would beg to differ.
And really: Emotional arguments like that help no one. Yes, people suffer badly because of Covid. They also suffer badly because of lockdowns. At that level of detail, there's no difference. What we need are numbers, something we can meaningfully compare. Like, how many years of life did we actually safe? How many did we destroy by not allowing people to actually live their lives? What's the impact on children's development, everyone's mental health, etc.? But apparently we have collectively decided not to weigh the effects of our decisions and protect the elderly at any cost.
Unless, of course, it would inconvenience them. You can't ask them to protect themselves, that would be discrimination.[1][2][3] Churches must be kept open, or grandma will be lonely. Hairdressers are very important for old people, so they're open.[4] Note that universities have been shut down for more than a year and schools have only partially reopened recently, as they're only important to irrelevant young people. And those are just the most obvious examples but.
Maybe my attitude would be different if I wasn't governed by openly antisocial elderly people.
[1] https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https...
[2] https://www.zeit.de/2020/17/corona-pandemie-risikogruppe-alt...
[3] http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=...
[4] http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
>> there will be considerable political pressure to "do something" about the next flu wave. This must be resisted Why on earth does it make sense to resist sensible public health measures to reduce the influenza to R0 The measures would not need to be nearly as drastic as those for COVID ("normal" R0 of 2 vs 2.5+), so more handwashing (good to minimize a broad spectrum of pathogens), masks (already culturally ordinar…
Those measures are not entirely different from the measures previously suggested, though. Obviously your quoted poster’s concerns are less about “hand washing”, “wear a mask if you have symptoms”, and “stay home” while you recover, and instead are about an overreaction in which entire businesses are forced to shut down, children without symptoms are forced to wear masks even as they run and play, and people are forci…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think only 1 in 6 or 7 are allergic to anything if you mean seasonal allergies to pollen what most people seem to mean when they say they feel poorly from allergies its only half as prevalent. That is to say most people don't have allergies to confuse with illness and although you might wake up feeling poorly for a number of reasons flu sufferers are liable to suffer from one or more distinguishable symptoms for ex…
When I was a kid with allergies I think it was 15% had allergies. Now 30% of adults and 40% of kids have them. https://www.webmd.com/allergies/allergy-statistics Sometimes my throat is sore but its just allergy drainage. It doesn't help that the things I'm allergic to line up with flu season.
https://www.aaaai.org/about-aaaai/newsroom/allergy-statistic...
https://acaai.org/news/facts-statistics/allergies
1 Hay fever, or allergic rhinitis, is a common condition with symptoms similar to those of a cold. There may be sneezing, congestion, runny nose, and sinus pressure. It is caused by an allergic response to airborne substances, such as pollen.
2 The American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology (AAAAI) is the most prominent membership organization of more than 7,000 allergists / immunologists (in the United States, Canada and 72 other countries) and patients' trusted resource for allergies, asthma and immune deficiency disorders. This membership includes allergist / immunologists, other medical specialists, allied health and related healthcare professionals—all with a special interest in the research and treatment of allergic and immunologic diseases.
WebMD's doesn't actually seem to actually source their data at all despite styling it like a link for some reason and since their is a disparity between what the CDC and AAAAI say I strongly suspect they are full of shit
Earlier quoted context omitted.
how does that work? Native Americans didn't have disease Europeans where not exposed to? Only Europeans had diseases? any info about this? very interesting
I believe the theory is that Europeans kept various domesticated animals and Native Americans had far fewer, and that those animals were frequently sources of new diseases. Europe was also more interconnected, so diseases may have spread farther while Native diseases died out. See the wiki page: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Native_American_disease_and_...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes well, I would hope if you've learned nothing during this pandemic it's that there is no one-size-fits-all immune system. Some 20 year olds are dying from COVID, others are barely noticing they have symptoms. All suggestions are de facto "anecdata". What works for me, may not work for you. I used to get "food poisoning" once a year or so, but haven't ever since I stopped eating out. That you are more resilient to…
That's exactly what i said. I am actually in the "exposing yourself to decent variations of microbes is actually good for your long term health" camp. Not everyone can do that, of course, especially the immunocompromised. I get that. You are telling your experience as if it's one size fits all. It's not. There is a reasonable case to actually exposing kids and one's self to microbes early on. Similar story for food a…
No, I'm not. I'm telling my experience exactly as it has been... my experience. One should not have to preface all of their comments with "this is my experience". That's de facto implied if you remove qualifiers like "this study indicates [1]" or "its been proven [1]", etc.
I said you can do a lot. You an do a lot. Whether it works for you or not, is entirely dependent on your own immune system.
You read it as something else here and that's on you. I have been clear in this thread to point out that there are differences in how we all deal with illness. This is what worked, FOR ME.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
We're not talking about a single flu season, effectively we're talking about skipping an entire flu season. Influenza is pretty promiscuous. In normal conditions, very few people aren't exposed to it: either their existing immune resistance (vaccinated or otherwise) is up to the job, or it isn't. Mutation is therefore the primary driver of flu, year upon year. This is why vaccines are continually reformulated for a b…
> The overwhelming majority of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is via large respiratory droplets as conclusively demonstrated by contact tracing studies, cluster investigations, the lack of infection spread in hospital settings with universal masking protocols and the low estimated R. https://www.pennmedicine.org/updates/blogs/penn-physician-bl... > The principal mode by which people are infected with SARS-CoV-2 (the viru…
The claim that "lack of infection spread in hospital settings" rules out airborne transmission due to masking is also questionable. The opposite seems true. As I understand it, infections in hospital settings have been routinely documented throughout the pandemic despite masking, contact protocols, etc. - which implicates airborne rather than droplet/fomite transmission.
This is a really good article in the Lancet recently which solidified my opinion on this. It offers 10 items of evidence for airborne transmission being the primary driver of the pandemic.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
For me, the key points are:
> Second, long-range transmission of SARS-CoV-2 between people in adjacent rooms but never in each other's presence has been documented in quarantine hotels.7
> Sixth, viable SARS-CoV-2 has been detected in the air. In laboratory experiments, SARS-CoV-2 stayed infectious in the air for up to 3 h with a half-life of 1·1 h.12 Viable SARS-CoV-2 was identified in air samples from rooms occupied by COVID-19 patients in the absence of aerosol-generating health-care procedures13 and in air samples from an infected person's car.14 Although other studies have failed to capture viable SARS-CoV-2 in air samples, this is to be expected. Sampling of airborne virus is technically challenging for several reasons, including limited effectiveness of some sampling methods for collecting fine particles, viral dehydration during collection, viral damage due to impact forces (leading to loss of viability), reaerosolisation of virus during collection, and viral retention in the sampling equipment.3 Measles and tuberculosis, two primarily airborne diseases, have never been cultivated from room air.15
> Seventh, SARS-CoV-2 has been identified in air filters and building ducts in hospitals with COVID-19 patients; such locations could be reached only by aerosols.16
> Eighth, studies involving infected caged animals that were connected to separately caged uninfected animals via an air duct have shown transmission of SARS-CoV-2 that can be adequately explained only by aerosols.17
> Tenth, there is limited evidence to support other dominant routes of transmission—ie, respiratory droplet or fomite.9, 24 Ease of infection between people in close proximity to each other has been cited as proof of respiratory droplet transmission of SARS-CoV-2. However, close-proximity transmission in most cases along with distant infection for a few when sharing air is more likely to be explained by dilution of exhaled aerosols with distance from an infected person.9 The flawed assumption that transmission through close proximity implies large respiratory droplets or fomites was historically used for decades to deny the airborne transmission of tuberculosis and measles.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
My layman understanding is that it doesn‘t work that way. Less spread = less chance of mutation = less chance of uber infectious new flu strain.
It's potentially the opposite. Say you have a population of 1000. If one person infects ten others. Then its going to be 3 generations before 1000 are infected and full immunity is reached. We go for a suppression strategy instead.If 1 person infects 1 other person (as we seem to be trying to achieve with corna) it is going to take 1000 generations before full immunity is achieved. There is going to be far more chanc…