Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic • Hacker News Board

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#511

Post by abunuwas » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 10:26 PM UTC

timr wrote: post #271

Majromax wrote: post #237

This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…

> This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset....the flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2....Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5....In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses....there's really no need for conspiracy theorizing. Assuming that this is due to "masking and distancing" and the small difference…

This makes sense. I've always caught a flu or cold in the tube or in the office, usually from an infected parent. Last year many parents were enjoying a flu-less life while the schools were closed, only to catch it again a week after opening the schools again. I don't have kids, so last year, for the first time in my life, I didn't spend a single day sick.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#512

Post by mnouquet » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 10:29 PM UTC

abunuwas wrote: post #511

timr wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset....the flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2....Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5....In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses....there's really no need for conspiracy theorizing. Assuming that this is due to "masking and distancing" and the small difference…

This makes sense. I've always caught a flu or cold in the tube or in the office, usually from an infected parent. Last year many parents were enjoying a flu-less life while the schools were closed, only to catch it again a week after opening the schools again. I don't have kids, so last year, for the first time in my life, I didn't spend a single day sick.

Which doesn't mean it's necessarily a good thing, as all these bugs will come back with a vengeance against immune systems.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#513

Post by kevingadd » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 10:31 PM UTC

f6v wrote: post #417

bombcar wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect a significant reduction of flu vectors is simply closed schools.

Where I live parents don’t understand what a lockdown is. During extended school holidays the children are all playing together. What’s the point then?

If they're playing outside, that's probably safer than being locked inside poorly-ventilated cages all day alongside unvaccinated teachers

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#514

Post by mnouquet » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 10:34 PM UTC

skeeter2020 wrote: post #495

1. stay in your home 2. wear a mask 3. extra emphasis on washing your hands and not touching your face I'm only prepared to continue with #3 and I hope Covid will encourage more people to get annual flu shots. Beyond that, I'm rolling the dice.

1. not doing that, 2. never done that, 3. don't care about personal hygiene that much

I'm surprised I'm still alive...

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#515

Post by fullshark » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 10:37 PM UTC

jjav wrote: post #498

fullshark wrote: post #477

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That it wasn't predictable or obvious flu cases would go to near zero. These news stories are not about how if we do X then flu cases will go to near zero, and most operate under the assumption flu season is coming and will likely be a "twindemic" that needs to be mitigated/lessened. It didn't come and now we are pretending it was clear it was never coming. Just tired of people using selective memories to pretend tha…

> That it wasn't predictable or obvious flu cases would go to near zero. How could it not be predictable? I get the cold/flu when I or someone in the family is exposed to someone sick and it gets passed on. If we're all staying in the house and not going anywhere for a year, by what mechanism could we possibly get sick? Seemed predictable to me. In any case, it's been so awesome to not be sick in over a year. With el…

And yet I really don't remember any discussion at all about how flu season was going to be nonexistent this winter in the media. No discussion about how if we socially distance flu deaths would drop almost 97% (22000 -> 600).

I guess no one decided to write a news story about it cause it was so predictable, dog bites man and all.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#516

Post by xyzzy21 » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 10:37 PM UTC

Majromax wrote: post #237

This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…

Or....(and without any conspiracy theories - never mind MOST conspiracy theories of the last 30 years have entirely become true - conspiracy TRUTHS).

Everything that was flu was labeled as COVID since doctors, hospitals and medical professions were PAID a bounty on COVID.

Multiple this by PCR testing being 99% fraudulent due to high cycle counts which enable cold viruses and even flu viruses to to test positive because you've reached the "noise floor" of the test at 10-15 cycles (most testing was done with 30-40 cycles). This helped "fulfill" the bounties and take all the attention away from conventional diseases both infective and others like heart disease, cancer, etc. (which got counted as COVID as well, just like traffic accidents and other definitely-not-COVID deaths that occurred).

The same bounty system shut down the entire surveillance system for flu as well as because non-essential workers included anything not COVID related or providing shallowly defined "essential" services.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#517

Post by bsimpson » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 10:38 PM UTC

jvm_ wrote: post #134

postalrat wrote: post #112

https://syndromictrends.com/metric/panel/rp/percent_positivi... Unless I'm reading that chart wrong it seems like flu went away but viruses that cause cold like symptoms stuck around. If masks/etc was super effective wouldn't you expect those to go down with influenza?

It seems there's a battle between virus's, they don't like sharing resources and the 'strongest' wins. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56483445 Coronavirus: How the common cold can boot out Covid Think of the cells in your nose, throat and lungs as being like a row of houses. Once a virus gets inside, it can either hold the door open to let in other viruses, or it can nail the door shut and keep its new home to itsel…

Begs the obvious question: could you intentionally infect someone with a mild, greedy virus to displace a more dangerous one?

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#518

Post by galangalalgol » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 10:39 PM UTC

kiawe_fire wrote: post #478

toss1 wrote: post #387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> there will be considerable political pressure to "do something" about the next flu wave. This must be resisted Why on earth does it make sense to resist sensible public health measures to reduce the influenza to R0 The measures would not need to be nearly as drastic as those for COVID ("normal" R0 of 2 vs 2.5+), so more handwashing (good to minimize a broad spectrum of pathogens), masks (already culturally ordinar…

Those measures are not entirely different from the measures previously suggested, though. Obviously your quoted poster’s concerns are less about “hand washing”, “wear a mask if you have symptoms”, and “stay home” while you recover, and instead are about an overreaction in which entire businesses are forced to shut down, children without symptoms are forced to wear masks even as they run and play, and people are forci…

The normal flu can be pretty bad. In 2018 the spike in total deaths in TX and surrounding states were between a third and a half of the covid spike in those regions. Masks might have been a good idea in 2018 and I hope they become part of our culture at least when you think you might be coming down with something. You know, that first day of a cold when you are telling yourself its allergies or drainage. Shutting down stores makes less sense.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#519

Post by sebmellen » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 10:41 PM UTC

xyzzy21 wrote: post #516

Majromax wrote: post #237

This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…

Or....(and without any conspiracy theories - never mind MOST conspiracy theories of the last 30 years have entirely become true - conspiracy TRUTHS). Everything that was flu was labeled as COVID since doctors, hospitals and medical professions were PAID a bounty on COVID. Multiple this by PCR testing being 99% fraudulent due to high cycle counts which enable cold viruses and even flu viruses to to test positive becau…

I’m 100% sure that “MOST” conspiracy theories of the last 30 years have not been proven true.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#520

Post by sebmellen » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 10:45 PM UTC

CodeGlitch wrote: post #467

Mordisquitos wrote: post #425

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even though the plural of anecdotes is not data, I must say that my personal experience matches yours as well. I pay no attention to disinfection or antiseptic cleanliness, and I can't remember the last time I was actually ill. In the good old days, whenever someone would "warn" me that they were a bit sick before hugging/sharing a bottle/shaking hands/etc, I would even joke “Don't worry, I don't believe in the germ…

Damn I wish I had your immune system. Pre-covid I would get sick every September and probably 2 other times in the year (I would have the flu jab every November too!). I'm a germaphobe so wash my hands before eating, etc. I also try and stay fit, don't smoke and hardly drink alcohol. Unless there's a trick I'm missing here?

Just a thought — the trick might be trying to be less of a germaphobe to build up your immune system (not medical advice).