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Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

scientificamerican.com

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Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#471

Post by crowquill »

allturtles wrote: post #330
rubicon33 wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can do a LOT. I haven't been sick once in 6+ years because I do the following: 1) Almost never eat out. Home cooked meals that I've prepped / washed. This was single handedly the biggest factor that completely removed "getting sick" from my life. 2) Hand wash before touching face, or food. 3) Avoid sick people. If I hear someone coughing or sneezing, I move away from them. Call me a germ freak, I don't care, I've…

4) Don't have children.

And here comes the childfree brigade again.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#472

Post by danudey »

jb775 wrote: post #428
fullshark wrote: post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. That explains all these news stories telling me what to expect: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/experts-warn-twindemic-... https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/09/19/covid-... https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-we-can-avoid-... etc: https://www.google.com/search?q=twindemic&tbs=cdr:1,cd_min:9...

Where's all the people that were saying Covid is a completely separate thing from the flu?...and every "Covid Death" was a separate death on top of the normal flu death rate? Occam's Razor: Covid isn't a "pandemic", it's a strong flu

Influenza is a specific thing. I'm not sure why you're trying to argue that COVID-19 is influenza when that's observably factually incorrect. Perhaps you're not aware that "the flu" is a specific thing and not just a way people say "people who get sick all at once from a thing"?

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#473

Post by soldehierro »

he0001 wrote: post #225
bitexploder wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ehh... most viruses really don't live on surfaces very long. Unless they were continuously spraying the whole pandemic on a weekly basis I don't see how it could do much at all. And even if they were doing it every week... most of us get viruses from handled (by humans) surfaces.

Virus exist everywhere and is the most common entity on earth. In a tablespoon of seawater there can be ten million of them. Most are not dangerous to man, about 600 is known. They are also very good to survive on their own without a host and can live in most hostile environments.

Viruses aren't alive, and they certainly can't reproduce without host cells, so saying that they survive on their own doesn't seem like a terribly accurate statement. Trying to extend the metaphors of life "alive or dead, surviving" to viruses only generates misconceptions, instead "viable or inactivated" is a better way of looking at it.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#474

Post by hanselot »

fullshark wrote: post #401
Majromax wrote: post #237

This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…

> This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. That explains all these news stories telling me what to expect: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/experts-warn-twindemic-... https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/09/19/covid-... https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-we-can-avoid-... etc: https://www.google.com/search?q=twindemic&tbs=cdr:1,cd_min:9...

Shills drawing in from every side. ITT watch someone post examples of contrary information presented as fact by the press, to be slandered as spreading misinformation. How much do they pay the child commenters, or do they really do it because they drink the kool-aid?

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#475

Post by tehlike »

rubicon33 wrote: post #318
aarondia wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This year was a great experiment in person hygiene. It was the healthiest I have ever been for a full year, no colds, stomach bugs, anything. I'm not sure which practices I'll continue, but its definitely shown me that I have wayyyy more control over my health than I previously thought. Curious what others think are the most effective continued practices. Seems like social distancing isn't super reasonable, but maybe…

You can do a LOT. I haven't been sick once in 6+ years because I do the following: 1) Almost never eat out. Home cooked meals that I've prepped / washed. This was single handedly the biggest factor that completely removed "getting sick" from my life. 2) Hand wash before touching face, or food. 3) Avoid sick people. If I hear someone coughing or sneezing, I move away from them. Call me a germ freak, I don't care, I've…

I don't think your anecdata proves anything but your own experience.

1. I eat out a lot, including junk food every now and then. 2. Of course I hand wash, but i would not say "before touching face" per-se, but as often as you'd normally expect (restroom breaks, before preparing food and/or eating, after coming from outside). 3. I don't really run away from sick people. I simply am indifferent.

I still never get sick, i used to, but probably haven't for more than 7 years.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#476

Post by fny »

Majromax wrote: post #237

This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…

To quell discussions of no/low testing.

Looking at two weeks:

- Week of December 5, 2020: 40/22,474 flu tests were positive

- Week of December 7, 2019: 631/1,508 flu tests were positive

Cumulative #s:

- Cumulative through Week 14 2021: 1,739/891,717

- Cumulative through Week 14 2019: 37,155/69,291

So we've been testing wayyy more often with wayyy fewer positives.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/pastreports.htm

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#477

Post by fullshark »

bradford wrote: post #459
fullshark wrote: post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. That explains all these news stories telling me what to expect: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/experts-warn-twindemic-... https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/09/19/covid-... https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-we-can-avoid-... etc: https://www.google.com/search?q=twindemic&tbs=cdr:1,cd_min:9...

We were warned of bad outcomes if precautions weren't taken. Precautions were taken, and the worst outcomes were avoided. This doesn't invalidate the prior warning. I don't want to assume bad intentions on your part but I'm not really sure what you want us to conclude from these posts... elaborate?

That it wasn't predictable or obvious flu cases would go to near zero. These news stories are not about how if we do X then flu cases will go to near zero, and most operate under the assumption flu season is coming and will likely be a "twindemic" that needs to be mitigated/lessened. It didn't come and now we are pretending it was clear it was never coming.

Just tired of people using selective memories to pretend that the last year wasn't chaotic and full of many wrong predictions, from experts and novices alike. Some humility would be appreciated.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#478

Post by kiawe_fire »

toss1 wrote: post #387
samatman wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Small but important correction: nothing can make epidemiological spread non-exponential. Driving base reproduction below one additional infection per infected patient means the exponent is less than one, so the incidence of the disease rapidly decreases. This decrease is also exponential by definition: infection is simply an exponential process, and an exponential equation doesn't stop being what it is when the expon…

>> there will be considerable political pressure to "do something" about the next flu wave. This must be resisted Why on earth does it make sense to resist sensible public health measures to reduce the influenza to R0 The measures would not need to be nearly as drastic as those for COVID ("normal" R0 of 2 vs 2.5+), so more handwashing (good to minimize a broad spectrum of pathogens), masks (already culturally ordinar…

Those measures are not entirely different from the measures previously suggested, though.

Obviously your quoted poster’s concerns are less about “hand washing”, “wear a mask if you have symptoms”, and “stay home” while you recover, and instead are about an overreaction in which entire businesses are forced to shut down, children without symptoms are forced to wear masks even as they run and play, and people are forcibly prevented from leaving their homes “just because it’s flu season”.

This may be necessary, at times, for COVID-19, but as you recognized, not for the normal flu.

Given the spotty record of both public and private policy with regards to using actual science as a driver, these are not invalid concerns.

Or put differently, rather than presuming that anyone against “doing something” is against “common sense” measures, perhaps we should be supportive of making sure that we do something, AND that the “something” that we do remain in the realm of common sense, to assuage the very real concerns that “doing something” could mean something more harmful than good.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#479

Post by 988747 »

My take on that is: since pandemic started governments have been pretty paranoid, imposing a lot of burdensome restrictions on their citizens, like mandatory quarantine. This incentivized people to never go to doctor unless absolutely necessary, which means that most flu cases go undiagnosed.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#480

Post by jonas21 »

fullshark wrote: post #401
Majromax wrote: post #237

This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…

> This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. That explains all these news stories telling me what to expect: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/experts-warn-twindemic-... https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/09/19/covid-... https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-we-can-avoid-... etc: https://www.google.com/search?q=twindemic&tbs=cdr:1,cd_min:9...

For the reasons listed above, there were 3 potential outcomes, depending on the success of the public health measures to contain the spread of COVID:

1. A high number of COVID cases and a high number of flu cases.

2. A high number of COVID cases but low number of flu cases.

3. A low number of COVID cases and a low number of flu cases.

If flu and COVID were independent, there would be a fourth potential outcome (high flu cases and low COVID cases). Majromax is saying that it was largely predictable that this fourth outcome would not happen.

The thing that the news articles are warning about is outcome #1 which, if it had transpired, probably would have been quite bad. Note that the experts in the articles are warning about something that could happen, not saying that it will definitely happen. And the reason it didn't happen is at least in part due to the warnings that were issued.

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