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Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

scientificamerican.com

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Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#461

Post by nodamage »

jb775 wrote: post #428
fullshark wrote: post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. That explains all these news stories telling me what to expect: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/experts-warn-twindemic-... https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/09/19/covid-... https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-we-can-avoid-... etc: https://www.google.com/search?q=twindemic&tbs=cdr:1,cd_min:9...

Where's all the people that were saying Covid is a completely separate thing from the flu?...and every "Covid Death" was a separate death on top of the normal flu death rate? Occam's Razor: Covid isn't a "pandemic", it's a strong flu

It's disappointing to see this type of misinformation being spread on HN. All you need to do is look at all-cause mortality in 2020 compared to previous years to easily disprove this:

https://i.imgur.com/z9RsQ8e.png

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#462

Post by greycol »

jb775 wrote: post #428
fullshark wrote: post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. That explains all these news stories telling me what to expect: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/experts-warn-twindemic-... https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/09/19/covid-... https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-we-can-avoid-... etc: https://www.google.com/search?q=twindemic&tbs=cdr:1,cd_min:9...

Where's all the people that were saying Covid is a completely separate thing from the flu?...and every "Covid Death" was a separate death on top of the normal flu death rate? Occam's Razor: Covid isn't a "pandemic", it's a strong flu

If we're using the WHO definition of a pandemic it's a pandemic.

If we're using the dictionary definition of a pandemic "(of a disease) prevalent over a whole country or the world." it's a pandemic.

If we're using the colloquial definition of a pandemic "a disease that spreads around the world killing lots of people" it's a pandemic.

If you want you can consider seasonal flu on the list of pandemics, fine, but you're simply wrong to consider covid not a pandemic and if you are trying to downplay how deadly covid is I'd say you're behaving in an ethically wrong manner too.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#463

Post by ericb »

Kiro wrote: post #321
ericb wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was in Florida two weeks ago--Orlando and Sarasota. I'm a Massachusetts resident. In Florida, I observed around 90+% mask usage in grocery stores. In a random ColdStone creamery, I saw maybe 70%, Five guys was probably 80% except while eating. In Massachusetts, usage is certainly higher, but maybe in practicality, not enough to make a difference compared to other factors?

1% mask usage in Sweden and we also have extremely low flu numbers.

Interesting. Do people still associate indoors in large numbers, or is that unchanged as well? As in, could behavioral change be a driver?

I also wonder, with far less numerical opportunity to spread and mutate, if the flu wasn't able to "grow" a good candidate with good evolutionary fitness this year, so distancing and mask usage affect countries even where they aren't practiced.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#464

Post by kube-system »

nodamage wrote: post #461
jb775 wrote: post #428

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where's all the people that were saying Covid is a completely separate thing from the flu?...and every "Covid Death" was a separate death on top of the normal flu death rate? Occam's Razor: Covid isn't a "pandemic", it's a strong flu

It's disappointing to see this type of misinformation being spread on HN. All you need to do is look at all-cause mortality in 2020 compared to previous years to easily disprove this: https://i.imgur.com/z9RsQ8e.png

I haven't seen this before, thanks for sharing. Do you know the original source?

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#465

Post by samatman »

Majromax wrote: post #373
samatman wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Small but important correction: nothing can make epidemiological spread non-exponential. Driving base reproduction below one additional infection per infected patient means the exponent is less than one, so the incidence of the disease rapidly decreases. This decrease is also exponential by definition: infection is simply an exponential process, and an exponential equation doesn't stop being what it is when the expon…

> The steady state is exactly 1, which is like balancing a pencil on its point. At exactly one, it's indeterminate; you could see a subexponential growth or decay. With no exponential terms remaining, lower-order terms that are ordinarily hidden by exponential growth become the dominant observables. (Since epidemic spread is also random, you're much more likely to see the stochastic terms show up in the overall stati…

We're not talking about a single flu season, effectively we're talking about skipping an entire flu season.

Influenza is pretty promiscuous. In normal conditions, very few people aren't exposed to it: either their existing immune resistance (vaccinated or otherwise) is up to the job, or it isn't.

Mutation is therefore the primary driver of flu, year upon year. This is why vaccines are continually reformulated for a best-guess at what strains are going to be dominant.

We had just concluded a northern-hemisphere flu season when travel restrictions started to kick in. This was followed by at least a 90% reduction in international travel, and for most of what remained, it was mandated that new arrivals isolate for long enough to eliminate any influenza they might have carried.

Lockdowns would mean less mutation to begin with, since it happens in human hosts. And such mutations as did present are going to have a tough time jumping oceans, and even when they do arrive, spreading through the populace is substantially inhibited.

Ironically, the universal mask mandates are likely to be more effective against flu than against COVID. Like it or not, masking has minimal effect on spreading aerosols, although using a "real" mask, and being pretty careful to wear it right, can mitigate inhaling those aerosols.

Influenza is believed to be spreadable through aerosols, but the primary vector is droplets, while the opposite appears to be true for SARS2. Bog-standard cloth masks are fairly good at keeping droplets off people and surfaces.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#466

Post by dTal »

im3w1l wrote: post #396
samatman wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Small but important correction: nothing can make epidemiological spread non-exponential. Driving base reproduction below one additional infection per infected patient means the exponent is less than one, so the incidence of the disease rapidly decreases. This decrease is also exponential by definition: infection is simply an exponential process, and an exponential equation doesn't stop being what it is when the expon…

At a super fundamental level, epidemics take place on a social graph. In a well connected graph spread will be exponential, but depending on graph shape it could be something else. In particular you could imagine that if people never venture outside their own block that the social network is an euclidean graph. In an ideal case where people are evenly spaced in the plane and only interact with neighbors, the disease…

I'm perplexed why anyone would downvote this comment; it seems very interesting and insightful to me.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#467

Post by CodeGlitch »

Mordisquitos wrote: post #425
thelean12 wrote: post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, I don't think I've ever gotten a cold/the flu, at least not since I was a young kid, and I don't take much care to do anything on your list. Sure, I'll wash my hands after using a restroom or before prepping food. But I'll definitely walk into a restaurant (pre-covid) and just start eating a burger without washing my hands first. I feel the biggest factor is just what body and immune system you hav…

Even though the plural of anecdotes is not data, I must say that my personal experience matches yours as well. I pay no attention to disinfection or antiseptic cleanliness, and I can't remember the last time I was actually ill. In the good old days, whenever someone would "warn" me that they were a bit sick before hugging/sharing a bottle/shaking hands/etc, I would even joke “Don't worry, I don't believe in the germ…

Damn I wish I had your immune system. Pre-covid I would get sick every September and probably 2 other times in the year (I would have the flu jab every November too!). I'm a germaphobe so wash my hands before eating, etc. I also try and stay fit, don't smoke and hardly drink alcohol.

Unless there's a trick I'm missing here?

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#468

Post by noja »

rubicon33 wrote: post #318
aarondia wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This year was a great experiment in person hygiene. It was the healthiest I have ever been for a full year, no colds, stomach bugs, anything. I'm not sure which practices I'll continue, but its definitely shown me that I have wayyyy more control over my health than I previously thought. Curious what others think are the most effective continued practices. Seems like social distancing isn't super reasonable, but maybe…

You can do a LOT. I haven't been sick once in 6+ years because I do the following: 1) Almost never eat out. Home cooked meals that I've prepped / washed. This was single handedly the biggest factor that completely removed "getting sick" from my life. 2) Hand wash before touching face, or food. 3) Avoid sick people. If I hear someone coughing or sneezing, I move away from them. Call me a germ freak, I don't care, I've…

> Almost never eat out. Home cooked meals that I've prepped / washed. This was single handedly the biggest factor that completely removed "getting sick" from my life.

How do you know this was the biggest factor?

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#469

Post by educaysean »

JulianMorrison wrote: post #269

Maybe we were too callous just allowing the ordinary flu to run rampant, and we should consider in future doing things like masking up when a flu season is expected, so as to stop the disease from killing thousands of old people. And also possibly consider going for full eradication rather than harm reduction. Can flu jabs be made more effective, and multi-strain, using mRNA vaccine technology? That's a genuinely new…

Masks during flu seasons is already the norm in various Asian countries: Korea, Japan, China, etc. I think their previous experiences dealing with SARS and MERS have taught a valuable lesson for the masses.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#470

Post by kingsuper20 »

papito wrote: post #339
logicslave wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You do realize this is probably all in your head? Like the food you eat is probably full of bacteria, the plate you eat on, the fork you use? Like you sit there with an attitude, but in the kitchen you cant see your food was cooked on an unclean grill If it makes you feel superior or better, go ahead.

I am not going to touch a door handle, touched by hundreds of people before me, and then touch my burger with the same hand. Neither am I going to try and lick the same handle to develop immunity and get those precious germs into my system.

You should probably never research eyelash mites.

One thing I always like about human parasites (and no, I don't mean your coworkers) is that you can give a rough date to the invention of clothing.

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