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Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

scientificamerican.com

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Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#451

Post by Mountain_Skies »

toss1 wrote: post #387
samatman wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Small but important correction: nothing can make epidemiological spread non-exponential. Driving base reproduction below one additional infection per infected patient means the exponent is less than one, so the incidence of the disease rapidly decreases. This decrease is also exponential by definition: infection is simply an exponential process, and an exponential equation doesn't stop being what it is when the expon…

>> there will be considerable political pressure to "do something" about the next flu wave. This must be resisted Why on earth does it make sense to resist sensible public health measures to reduce the influenza to R0 The measures would not need to be nearly as drastic as those for COVID ("normal" R0 of 2 vs 2.5+), so more handwashing (good to minimize a broad spectrum of pathogens), masks (already culturally ordinar…

Politicians have shown themselves throughout this pandemic to be opportunistic authoritarians who obviously don't believe in their mandates since they break them themselves so frequently. There's no reason to expect that these sociopaths won't jump at the opportunity to drink more from the fountain of power again given the chance. Since they've gotten away with so much this time, they might even be tempted to go even further next time.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#452

Post by giarc »

postalrat wrote: post #112

https://syndromictrends.com/metric/panel/rp/percent_positivi... Unless I'm reading that chart wrong it seems like flu went away but viruses that cause cold like symptoms stuck around. If masks/etc was super effective wouldn't you expect those to go down with influenza?

I'm not sure the source of that chart. The viruses contained in the Coronavirus category aren't even the SARS-CoV-2 that we call COVID. They list 4 strains, all of which are the regular circulating strains of coronavirus. I'd say this is not accurate at all.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#453

Post by gregschlom »

fullshark wrote: post #401
Majromax wrote: post #237

This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…

> This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. That explains all these news stories telling me what to expect: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/experts-warn-twindemic-... https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/09/19/covid-... https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-we-can-avoid-... etc: https://www.google.com/search?q=twindemic&tbs=cdr:1,cd_min:9...

Counter point: https://xkcd.com/2287/, from March 2020

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#454

Post by ryandrake »

f6v wrote: post #406
aarondia wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This year was a great experiment in person hygiene. It was the healthiest I have ever been for a full year, no colds, stomach bugs, anything. I'm not sure which practices I'll continue, but its definitely shown me that I have wayyyy more control over my health than I previously thought. Curious what others think are the most effective continued practices. Seems like social distancing isn't super reasonable, but maybe…

Usually my colleagues at the office didn’t wash their hands before eating and showed not so great overall hygiene. They also missed many days due to “stomach bug”. And then there’re people with children, they’re always sick. Yes, it’s been a great year in terms of not having to deal with many people. But I have to say I’m a bit worried it’ll go back to usual soon.

Just to add onto the anecdote pile. I used to work for a Silicon Valley tech company which, due to it's well-known obsession with secrecy, had office buildings with a lot of closed doors you needed to grab and open to get anywhere. Probably 4-6 different doors to handle just to get to my own office (itself with a door that people grab). I've never taken more sick days in my life. I always seemed to have some sort of URT infection or stomach bug, despite trying my best to keep good hygiene.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#455

Post by jsolson »

jb775 wrote: post #428
fullshark wrote: post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. That explains all these news stories telling me what to expect: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/experts-warn-twindemic-... https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/09/19/covid-... https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-we-can-avoid-... etc: https://www.google.com/search?q=twindemic&tbs=cdr:1,cd_min:9...

Where's all the people that were saying Covid is a completely separate thing from the flu?...and every "Covid Death" was a separate death on top of the normal flu death rate? Occam's Razor: Covid isn't a "pandemic", it's a strong flu

It's not an influenza virus.

That said, even if it was, a "very strong flu" with global transmission and impact _is_ a pandemic -- see the 1918 Flu Pandemic.

The death rate in 2020 in the US also surpassed that during the 1918 pandemic.

What I think we've learned is that the same measures used to slow the spread of COVID-19 are staggeringly effective against the flu, and that we now know how to prepare for the next particularly aggressive influenza variant.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#456

Post by throwastrike »

gorbachev wrote: post #262

I was just commenting to a co-worker my entire family hasn't been sick since the pandemic started. That is very unusual for a family with young children. No flu, no stomach viruses, absolutely nothing for more than a year now. Thankfully no covid-19 either.

I wonder whether this is actually a good thing over the long run? My thinking is that our constant exposure to viruses strengthen our immune system.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#457

Post by topher_t »

jb775 wrote: post #428
fullshark wrote: post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. That explains all these news stories telling me what to expect: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/experts-warn-twindemic-... https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/09/19/covid-... https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-we-can-avoid-... etc: https://www.google.com/search?q=twindemic&tbs=cdr:1,cd_min:9...

Where's all the people that were saying Covid is a completely separate thing from the flu?...and every "Covid Death" was a separate death on top of the normal flu death rate? Occam's Razor: Covid isn't a "pandemic", it's a strong flu

Covid is a completely separate thing from the flu, and this study shows that the excess death rate is not in fact on top of the normal flu, but that because of covid related precautions there were almost no flu deaths. So covid killed alot more people than the excess death rate would indicate.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#458

Post by [deleted] »

timr wrote: post #307
mmmrtl wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Possible explanations include: - More asymptomatic transmission of rhinovirus/enterovirus and adenoviruses than influenza. People often don't notice these illnesses, so wouldn't assume it is COVID and quarantine like they would for influenza. - More fomite spread than influenza. They may be more stable on surfaces or in food

These are reasonable theories as well. Though the second one would really have to be "SARS-CoV2 has more fomite spread than flu" to explain the observations. In general though, any sort of explanation that focuses on differences in transmission is more plausible than hand-wavy theories involving R0 and masks. People just desperately want to find evidence that the stuff we did this year made a huge difference.

[deleted]

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#459

Post by bradford »

fullshark wrote: post #401
Majromax wrote: post #237

This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…

> This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. That explains all these news stories telling me what to expect: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/experts-warn-twindemic-... https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/09/19/covid-... https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-we-can-avoid-... etc: https://www.google.com/search?q=twindemic&tbs=cdr:1,cd_min:9...

We were warned of bad outcomes if precautions weren't taken. Precautions were taken, and the worst outcomes were avoided. This doesn't invalidate the prior warning.

I don't want to assume bad intentions on your part but I'm not really sure what you want us to conclude from these posts... elaborate?

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#460

Post by brazzy »

jb775 wrote: post #428
fullshark wrote: post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. That explains all these news stories telling me what to expect: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/experts-warn-twindemic-... https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/09/19/covid-... https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-we-can-avoid-... etc: https://www.google.com/search?q=twindemic&tbs=cdr:1,cd_min:9...

Where's all the people that were saying Covid is a completely separate thing from the flu?...and every "Covid Death" was a separate death on top of the normal flu death rate? Occam's Razor: Covid isn't a "pandemic", it's a strong flu

Covid is caused by a coronavirus, not an influenza virus. They have similar transmission methods and symptoms, but they are still different things. Like cats and dogs are both of similar size, both carnivores, both kept as pets and both can bite you, but they are still different kinds of animals.

And of-fucking-course it's a pandemic. What do you think that word means?

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