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Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

scientificamerican.com

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Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#151

Post by JumpCrisscross »

teh_infallible wrote: post #145
jMyles wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's strange to call this an "alternative explanation", since it's the one that expert infectious disease researchers, nearly without exception, are pointing to. The (let's face it, silly) notion that masks and distancing suppressed all respiratory pathogens except one is a theory with very little traction, and which will almost certainly not stand up to serious scrutiny.

Blasphemy! Anyone paying attention can see that every person with the flu was labeled as having “Covid” but everyone who “follows the science” will perform all kinds of mental gymnastics to avoid seeing what is obvious.

> every person with the flu was labeled as having “Covid”

I got a cold a few weeks ago. Got tested, it wasn't Covid. Where mental gymnastics are needed is in ignoring hospitalization and excess mortality statistics.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#152

Post by failwhaleshark »

DanBC wrote: post #51
User23 wrote: post #4

Why did the flu also disappear in the states that had effectively no covid restrictions? This is a serious question and not an attempt at rhetoric. I really am curious. Was flu never a problem in Florida? Was voluntary compliance so widespread that heavy handed government policy had no marginal anti-flu effect? Something else?

Flu is seasonal, and there are large pushes to get people vaccinated against flu each year. Sometimes those vaccinations are more effective, and sometimes you get more people vaccinated. This season it appears both are true.

It's only seasonal because of increased indoor/outdoor humidity permitting longer micro-droplet aerosol suspension. If everyone were wearing masks that trap micro-droplets, then flus and colds effectively die out. It's the no maskers and chin-guarders that cause infectious agents like SARS-CoV-2, flu, and colds to proliferate.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#153

Post by ceejayoz »

postalrat wrote: post #112

https://syndromictrends.com/metric/panel/rp/percent_positivi... Unless I'm reading that chart wrong it seems like flu went away but viruses that cause cold like symptoms stuck around. If masks/etc was super effective wouldn't you expect those to go down with influenza?

> If masks/etc was super effective wouldn't you expect those to go down with influenza?

Viruses are not identical.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhinovirus

> They are lytic in nature and are among the smallest viruses, with diameters of about 30 nanometers. By comparison, other viruses, such as smallpox and vaccinia, are around ten times larger at about 300 nanometers, while flu viruses are around 80–120 nm.

Different virus sizes, different mask effectiveness.

Anecdotally, my kids are in middle school, and every winter we get several colds. None this year.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#154

Post by jayd16 »

paviva wrote: post #55

An alternative explanation is that of "viral interference"[1,2], i.e., the most transmissible virus boosting up viral immunity in the population, and precluding transmission of the less transmissible/fit virus [1]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5489283/ [2]: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5...

Would this only show up in the covid infected population?

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#155

Post by txsoftwaredev »

linuxftw wrote: post #85
ibraheemdev wrote: post #5

Just speculating here, but maybe because of false positives where flu cases get labeled as Covid? I've heard that PCR tests were not meant to be used for large scale virus detection. EDIT: The PCR test quote was fact checked and deemed to be misleading, but it still sounds like they are not very accurate [0]. [0]: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-pcr-idUSKBN2442...

Most people (with flu-like symptoms) don't contract influenza in a given year, and the number of cases the CDC puts out each year are comprised mostly of 'suspected' cases. Between the flu and covid, case reporting numbers are wildly unreliable. One might ask, what incentives are there to over report a given illness at any given time?

"One might ask, what incentives are there to over report a given illness at any given time?"

It allows the government to create fear and panic and pass broad sweeping bills with huge budgets. All in the name of "Covid Relief" etc.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#156

Post by fidesomnes »

yosito wrote: post #3

While I think this is most likely due to masking, distancing and staying home when sick, which were all far more effective against the flu than against SARS-CoV-2, I wonder how much this was affected by some of the deep cleans that cities were doing at the beginning of the pandemic where they basically sprayed entire cities with disinfectant trucks. Does anyone with more expertise have any thoughts about that?

> While I think this is most likely due to masking, distancing

I give it 5 years from now when it is no longer politically intolerable that studies will come out and admit that masks and social distancing did absolutely nothing to slow or prevent infection.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#157

Post by mrtksn »

collyw wrote: post #118
mrtksn wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How did you decide that this range exactly is unsuitable enough that we are better off we simply assume that the reality is the one that suits our agenda? IMHO that's a pretty good accuracy, significantly better than the "I feel like", "I want to believe that", "what if it's all about" or the "It's suits me better if" methodologies. I'm not being snarky, I simply want to outline the alternatives I'm aware of. I respe…

At the height of the "second wave" here, it was estimated that around 0.8% of the population was infected at the time. That means that if you were randomly tested there was a greater chance that you would have a false positive than an actual infection.

That would be unfortunate to all those prevalence studies where the difference between 1.1 and % 0.3 means the world for them. They may never know if it was %0.5 or %0.8 of the people infected.

On the other hand, it's a pretty good accuracy when you have a hospital full of sick people. Sure, you may end up recommending 14 days of staying at home every now and then when it's not necessary.

See, the PCR test is just one of the clues that is used to diagnose people. Negative test with clearly Covid-19 symptoms and medical image of the lungs showing spots gets you a bed and treatment in the hospital. Positive test and no symptoms gets you stay at home and wear a mask recommendation.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#158

Post by beowulfey »

postalrat wrote: post #112

https://syndromictrends.com/metric/panel/rp/percent_positivi... Unless I'm reading that chart wrong it seems like flu went away but viruses that cause cold like symptoms stuck around. If masks/etc was super effective wouldn't you expect those to go down with influenza?

I mean, if you look at May 2019 vs 2020 for the enterovirus/rhinoviruses on that chart, that's a drop from ~25% to ~3%; September went from 35% to 21%. So it's still a pretty solid decrease. I think it just wasn't nearly eradicated like influenza was because the prevalence is so high.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#160

Post by asiachick »

panarky wrote: post #89

Every community has a baseline mortality rate during "normal" times. During abnormal times like pandemic, famine and war, more people die than usual, but often the cause isn't known. If you subtract baseline mortality from actual mortality to get excess mortality, that's often a better estimate of the casualties from pandemic, famine and war than the death certificates for every person who died. Excess mortality in m…

There would be fewer traffic accidents as well right. No idea if the balance of consequences are a net plus or a net minus.

In any case there were a couple peaks in the USA where deaths from all causes were 25% higher than average.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-deat...

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