Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic • Hacker News Board

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#101

Post by ggggtez » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 5:23 PM UTC

moftz wrote: post #26

brandon272 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The likely explanation is that, because the flu is significantly less transmissible than COVID, even states with "no restrictions" were able to knock it out because enough people took enough measures to protect themselves from airborne/surface communicable disease in general. In other words, you can probably beat back the flu significantly by having enough of the population mask up, wash/sanitize their hands, etc.

I remember it not being a huge deal to have a bunch of people at work come with flu-like symptoms. "It's just something going around." Work gave out flu shots every year but that isn't 100%. It wasn't even considered much of a faux pas to show up to work feeling a little ill. Now, showing up to work with flu-like symptoms could put you in the hot seat with HR. Having a bunch of people fall ill in the office now resul…

One time I was really sick at an airport McDonalds. Fever, sneezing, the whole thing. But you're in an airport, and you have to eat something.

I had to explain almost pedantically why they should allow me to order verbally instead of using their touchscreens, for the safety of the other customers.

I think today, they'd have a protocol to accommodate people who are obviously sick so they don't have to touch anything. In fact, they probably don't even let healthy people use touch screens, if I had to guess.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#102

Post by alpaca128 » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 5:23 PM UTC

jimbob45 wrote: post #18

ibraheemdev wrote: post #5

Just speculating here, but maybe because of false positives where flu cases get labeled as Covid? I've heard that PCR tests were not meant to be used for large scale virus detection. EDIT: The PCR test quote was fact checked and deemed to be misleading, but it still sounds like they are not very accurate [0]. [0]: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-pcr-idUSKBN2442...

You don’t deserve the downvotes. There’s long been speculation that flu cases may be getting reported as COVID and vice-versa because of the symptom overlap.

This speculation has also been long debunked with a look at the mortality per week/month compared to the same time period in 2019. Which revealed that at least in early 2020 a ton of deaths were unaccounted for, due to limited Covid-19 testing as well as deaths indirectly caused by Covid-19(delayed surgery thanks to overloaded hospitals etc.)

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#103

Post by collyw » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 5:24 PM UTC

mrtksn wrote: post #88

ibraheemdev wrote: post #5

Just speculating here, but maybe because of false positives where flu cases get labeled as Covid? I've heard that PCR tests were not meant to be used for large scale virus detection. EDIT: The PCR test quote was fact checked and deemed to be misleading, but it still sounds like they are not very accurate [0]. [0]: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-pcr-idUSKBN2442...

Yes, that's the hypothesis of the "There's no Covid-19" crowd that will disappear whenever hospital corridors are filled with dead bodies. On the other hand PCR test are not inaccurate at all, at least regarding false positives. There are detailed articles and even Youtube videos on the process and if you take a look, you will understand why it's quite accurate. In essence, they create a reaction that will mass produ…

> On the other hand PCR test are not inaccurate at all, at least regarding false positives.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2...

between 0.8% and 4% false positive rate according to that, making them completely unsuitable for mass testing. On top of that BBC's panorama did a program pointing out the sloppy standards at centers where the tests are processed.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#104

Post by ibejoeb » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 5:24 PM UTC

jimbob45 wrote: post #18

ibraheemdev wrote: post #5

Just speculating here, but maybe because of false positives where flu cases get labeled as Covid? I've heard that PCR tests were not meant to be used for large scale virus detection. EDIT: The PCR test quote was fact checked and deemed to be misleading, but it still sounds like they are not very accurate [0]. [0]: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-pcr-idUSKBN2442...

You don’t deserve the downvotes. There’s long been speculation that flu cases may be getting reported as COVID and vice-versa because of the symptom overlap.

This is the problem with "presumptive positive." If you call the physician and he says "sounds like covid, call me if you develop serious breathing problems" and that never happens, like in most cases, now were are not counting anything, or worse, counting one as the other.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#105

Post by dundarious » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 5:25 PM UTC

ibraheemdev wrote: post #5

Just speculating here, but maybe because of false positives where flu cases get labeled as Covid? I've heard that PCR tests were not meant to be used for large scale virus detection. EDIT: The PCR test quote was fact checked and deemed to be misleading, but it still sounds like they are not very accurate [0]. [0]: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-pcr-idUSKBN2442...

I am deeply skeptical. There are major differences between influenza and COVID-19 symptoms. Never mind the shakiness of your premise about PCR tests.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#106

Post by petertodd » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 5:28 PM UTC

pmontra wrote: post #77

petertodd wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The likely explanation is that, because the flu is significantly less transmissible than COVID But why is it less transmissible? One obvious explanation is because we've lived with it all our lives, and most people already have some level of pre-existing immunity to most flu strains they're exposed to. Both due to natural infections, and vaccines. > In other words, you can probably beat back the flu significantly b…

Transmissibility (or Basic Reproduction Number - R0) is an intrinsic characteristic of a disease. Measles is at least 3 times more transmissible than flu [1]. We have a very effective vaccine against measles and a mildly effective one against flu, so people get flu and not measles but let them circulate among people without any protection and measles will get them sooner than flu. And it's also much deadlier [2] [1]…

> Transmissibility (or Basic Reproduction Number - R0) is an intrinsic characteristic of a disease.

I'm not talking about the theoretical R0, which assumes an immunologically naive population. I'm talking about the real world reproductive ratio, R, including existing immunity. Estimates of real world R for influenza are are even lower than the 2-4 your source quoted. Eg, this paper estimates a median of just 1.3 for a typical year's seasonal influenza: https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471...

With COVID-19's R0 estimated at 2-3, it could easily be the case that our measures are sufficient to completely wipe out the flu. But not COVID-19: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...

Re: measles, note that pre-vaccine, almost everyone got infected with measles at some point in their life, usually as a child. You actually see this in how effective the early childhood measles vaccination programs were: even though only children were being vaccinated, a small % of the total population, measles rates dropped dramatically(1) almost immediately. The adults had already gotten it and were already immune. So to wipe it out, we just needed to protect those who hadn't been infected: the new, uninfected, children born every year. The measles vaccine is attenuated live measles after all. So by vaccinating, we just get the inevitable infection over with in a controlled way, with the odds rigged _enormously_ in your favor.

1) https://ftp.historyofvaccines.org/index.php/content/graph-us...

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#107

Post by mrtksn » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 5:28 PM UTC

collyw wrote: post #103

mrtksn wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, that's the hypothesis of the "There's no Covid-19" crowd that will disappear whenever hospital corridors are filled with dead bodies. On the other hand PCR test are not inaccurate at all, at least regarding false positives. There are detailed articles and even Youtube videos on the process and if you take a look, you will understand why it's quite accurate. In essence, they create a reaction that will mass produ…

> On the other hand PCR test are not inaccurate at all, at least regarding false positives. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2... between 0.8% and 4% false positive rate according to that, making them completely unsuitable for mass testing. On top of that BBC's panorama did a program pointing out the sloppy standards at centers where the tests are processed.

How did you decide that this range exactly is unsuitable enough that we are better off we simply assume that the reality is the one that suits our agenda? IMHO that's a pretty good accuracy, significantly better than the "I feel like", "I want to believe that", "what if it's all about" or the "It's suits me better if" methodologies.

I'm not being snarky, I simply want to outline the alternatives I'm aware of.

I respect the accuracy of the PCR, it can literally tell us why people in India are dying off on the streets right now in thousands and we even cannot see the assailant through optical magnification. It can also tell us that it's the same thing that caused the exact same situation in NY and Italy.

It's amazing, much more intriguing than any other explanation that I came across.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#108

Post by ipaddr » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 5:29 PM UTC

fridif wrote: post #76

ipaddr wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know they do covid tests if they think your flu is covid. I think you are mixing up half-facts. People were saying that deaths with co-factors were being lumped as covid related deaths and different countries were classifying things differently for political reasons. No one is mislabeling the flu as covid and not giving you a covid test to detect the strain.

"No one is mislabeing the flu as covid". There have been 33 million positive coronavirus cases and 444 million tests-- are you sure you want to assert the following is true 100% of the time: 1) all covid diagnoses are ONLY covid 2) all flu occurrences are diagnosed, and when they are diagnosed, they are always ONLY diagnosed as flu

A covid tests doesn't test if you have something else. A covid test would not detect the flu or a broken leg and label it as covid. Depending in the type of test 1/3 could be false positive. If your theory was false positives are because of flu I'm not sure there is any proof to that theory but I would like to hear more.

All flu occurrences were not diagnosed before, this year or will be in our future lifetimes. Your doctor telling you its the flu and to get rest vs getting a positive for a influena A or B test and the percentage that a lab might make a mistake on those tests vs the % of time your doctor is wrong are two very different ways to think about your question. Usually the words 'AlWAYS' and 'ONLY' fail in a big population set.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#109

Post by ibejoeb » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 5:29 PM UTC

linuxftw wrote: post #85

ibraheemdev wrote: post #5

Just speculating here, but maybe because of false positives where flu cases get labeled as Covid? I've heard that PCR tests were not meant to be used for large scale virus detection. EDIT: The PCR test quote was fact checked and deemed to be misleading, but it still sounds like they are not very accurate [0]. [0]: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-pcr-idUSKBN2442...

Most people (with flu-like symptoms) don't contract influenza in a given year, and the number of cases the CDC puts out each year are comprised mostly of 'suspected' cases. Between the flu and covid, case reporting numbers are wildly unreliable. One might ask, what incentives are there to over report a given illness at any given time?

If you are Newsom or Cuomo, you get enormous amounts of power.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#110

Post by meheleventyone » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 5:29 PM UTC

Joker_vD wrote: post #52

Flatcircle wrote: post #20

I keep wondering how Lice will be able to hang around much after last year's social distancing, especially among children.

Are... are those still a thing in the first world?

Rampant amongst young kids in particular. Worms as well.