Europe Is Trying to Reclaim Its Lost Chipmaking Glory • Hacker News Board

Re: Europe Is Trying to Reclaim Its Lost Chipmaking Glory

#91

Post by arp242 » Tue, Apr 27, 2021, 5:28 PM UTC

dijit wrote: post #82

rsj_hn wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You do not really have much manufacturing in the EU. What you have is people working on the design of things that are manufactured in China. Just like the US, which in terms of value-add is the world's largest manufacturer, but in terms of actually manufacturing stuff, not so much. There is also some final component assembly (but that is not a major portion of value add), it is used to capture subsidies and claim tha…

If you’re interested you should really take a trip to Eindhoven, NL. Plenty of actual fabrication of electronics is happening there.

I have the impression it's a a lot less than there used to be though; when I was young Philips manufacturing was everywhere. Just 25 years later ... not much of it left. There does seem to be a shift from actual manufacturing to other industries.

Not that this is a bad thing as such, and it's not like it's all gone.

Also, because a lot of these companies don't produce the latest shiny gadget or manipulative abusive online website that would be literally illegal such as Facebook or Uber (both of which have little actual "innovation" outside of the business model), some people (Americans especially, it seems) seem to think Europe is some backwater where no actual high-tech industry is done, all the while typing on their computer made possible by companies such as ASML, FEI, Neways, and many more. Shrug.

Re: Europe Is Trying to Reclaim Its Lost Chipmaking Glory

#92

Post by imtringued » Tue, Apr 27, 2021, 5:36 PM UTC

saveduaclick wrote: post #36

bserge wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They haven't.

Ask spaniards or italians, I know it well. Regulation and taxes have eaten up all the economic potential.

I see the exact opposite, lack of state intervention has been the biggest problem so far. Fiscal stimulus has become extremely unpopular in the last 10 years.

Why is state intervention necessary? Because the private sector is too healthy, it's making profits but it isn't investing. The hornets are hibernating in the summer, you gotta poke the nest. If you cut taxes they are just going to hibernate even deeper.

The easiest answer is to just do helicopter money or universal basic income if you want to call it that. The better answer is to let the state invest, except the EU has failed to do so and when it did, each time the money disappeared via corruption, why even bother? So a EU UBI is our last hope.

Re: Europe Is Trying to Reclaim Its Lost Chipmaking Glory

#93

Post by rsj_hn » Tue, Apr 27, 2021, 5:40 PM UTC

detaro wrote: post #78

rsj_hn wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know where you live or what you mean by "here", but there is a reason no new chip fab is going to be built in California but they are building them in Arizona. The US has a federal system where states have a lot of control over things like environmental regulations, water usage, etc.

Western Europe, where fabs "can't happen". Nobody is complaining about the existing fabs, they really are not worse than other industry, and they get the high-tech/future bonus. No "millions of sanctimonious kids with nothing more meaningful in their lives than marching with signs" as you like to call them against that.

I am not saying that fabs can't happen because of something in Europeans' DNA. I am saying they can't happen because of the current political climate. Thus we are talking about obstacles to building new fabs in this thread. Existing fabs are a sunk cost -- the environmental approvals have already been granted, the political battles already waged, etc. In terms of existing fabs, there is a single modern fab in Crolles, France and a few (3?) in Germany. I think that's it for Europe - 4 fabs that can do 300mm. Then you have a bunch of 200mm built in the 80s.

Of course there is Ireland, but that's a fundamentally different situation -- Ireland exists as a type of corporate welcome mat and shouldn't be categorized with "europe" when you are talking about business climate/regulations.

Re: Europe Is Trying to Reclaim Its Lost Chipmaking Glory

#94

Post by totalZero » Tue, Apr 27, 2021, 5:44 PM UTC

tablespoon wrote: post #81

totalZero wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It is really sad how the domestic/western production became irrelevant. Has it though? The West is up against governments. TSMC is part owned by their government. SMIC is part owned by their government. Samsung's share of South Korean GDP is so large that it might as well be the government. In the face of such organized and concentrated competition, what's so sad about some private businesses falling short?

> In the face of such organized and concentrated competition, what's so sad about some private businesses falling short? I think the sad thing they were talking about is those businesses not getting the support they needed, because of an incompetent lack of strategic vision on the part of their governments'. It's like sending your army to a gunfight only armed with knives.

I understand that point, but I'm saying the West is not irrelevant ("Has it though" as in, "has it become irrelevant though"). The 'woe is me' is strong in this thread, but the solution is at worst 10 years away if Western governments put their backs into beginning the long process today.

Re: Europe Is Trying to Reclaim Its Lost Chipmaking Glory

#95

Post by pydry » Tue, Apr 27, 2021, 5:48 PM UTC

azinman2 wrote: post #77

Dah00n wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not disagreeing but you comment could be rewritten and still be true: >The US is steamrolling us, because 1) they think and act strategic, 2) size-wise, they are not one country but many countries and city-states working as one and 3) they are beating us at our own game because we have a slavish devotion to WTO principles while they will use protectionism if it benefits them. This is as true overall IMO. I'm not…

But China is doing things no one else is doing. Requiring a local partner, giving up your IP to them and/or “security reviews”, not letting through many companies to give their own home grown a chance (eg Facebook, Google, etc), currency controls, currency manipulation, exploiting the global postal system to facilitate being export-oriented, inaccessible courts that never punish IP theft and abuse, the list is quite…

I wouldn't count on the fairness of US courts for strategic industries. They're unlikely to rule in favor of Huawei or against Boeing.

Re: Europe Is Trying to Reclaim Its Lost Chipmaking Glory

#96

Post by jollybean » Tue, Apr 27, 2021, 5:54 PM UTC

captainmuon wrote: post #41

Around 2004 I visited the chipmaking industry in Dresden on a university field trip. We went to AMD and to AMTC (Advanced Mask Technology Center). It looked like they were doing pretty well, they were increasing production capacity and also doing research, and AMD and others were investing a lot of money. I think now the whole campus belongs to Globalfoundaries. It is really sad how the domestic/western production be…

There are 1 billion people working for a pittance in China. There's hardly any way for anyone to compete with China on low-cost manufacturing at scale. Chips are something that smaller, smarter teams can do, it's a different kind of industry.

Re: Europe Is Trying to Reclaim Its Lost Chipmaking Glory

#97

Post by nine_k » Tue, Apr 27, 2021, 5:56 PM UTC

azinman2 wrote: post #77

Dah00n wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not disagreeing but you comment could be rewritten and still be true: >The US is steamrolling us, because 1) they think and act strategic, 2) size-wise, they are not one country but many countries and city-states working as one and 3) they are beating us at our own game because we have a slavish devotion to WTO principles while they will use protectionism if it benefits them. This is as true overall IMO. I'm not…

But China is doing things no one else is doing. Requiring a local partner, giving up your IP to them and/or “security reviews”, not letting through many companies to give their own home grown a chance (eg Facebook, Google, etc), currency controls, currency manipulation, exploiting the global postal system to facilitate being export-oriented, inaccessible courts that never punish IP theft and abuse, the list is quite…

In short, they are playing the Mercantilist card which Britain played about four centuries ago, and US, a couple of centuries ago.

International free trade is profitable in the long term if everybody is buying your goods, which was the case for the US and UK a century ago. China is using the resulting situation to its great benefit.

Re: Europe Is Trying to Reclaim Its Lost Chipmaking Glory

#98

Post by vmception » Tue, Apr 27, 2021, 5:57 PM UTC

jollybean wrote: post #96

captainmuon wrote: post #41

Around 2004 I visited the chipmaking industry in Dresden on a university field trip. We went to AMD and to AMTC (Advanced Mask Technology Center). It looked like they were doing pretty well, they were increasing production capacity and also doing research, and AMD and others were investing a lot of money. I think now the whole campus belongs to Globalfoundaries. It is really sad how the domestic/western production be…

There are 1 billion people working for a pittance in China. There's hardly any way for anyone to compete with China on low-cost manufacturing at scale. Chips are something that smaller, smarter teams can do, it's a different kind of industry.

I think people are overdue for a more pragmatic view on China

Their GDP should be 3 times larger than EU of US, and they are doing things to make that true

We should never be a factor to them but our egos require us to imagine they are thinking about us at all

The only time they acknowledge us is to placate our egos. Reassure us that it isn't a big deal that their economy is about to be larger, and reassure us that they wont do the same things we all did with the rest of the world (and hope we ignore what they do internally, they aren't sending drones for our domestic rights abuses either).

Re: Europe Is Trying to Reclaim Its Lost Chipmaking Glory

#99

Post by jollybean » Tue, Apr 27, 2021, 6:05 PM UTC

mrweasel wrote: post #79

ginko wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>EU is a few decades old failed experiment Why do people say this with such conviction?

Because the EU is terrible at highlighting what benefits it actually provides to the people in the union. The EU, for all it’s flaws and silly rules is single greatest thing to happen to Europe. But all those good things are only apparent when taken away, the UK is only just now learning that. Free trade and movement across European borders is product of the EU, and it sucks to have it taken away from you.

"The EU, for all it’s flaws and silly rules is single greatest thing to happen to Europe."

Norway and Switzerland have some words for you.

More likely just the EEC was the 'greatest thing' and the EU, essentially the political version, is possibly a negative drag.

There's not much indication that the trade-plus-politics version of Europe is any better than the 'mostly trade' version.

"But all those good things are only apparent when taken away, the UK is only just now learning that. "

Like the ability to give it's population lifesaving vaccines months faster than the EU?

It will take a decade before we know which actions between EU and UK were specifically problematic, my bet is that it's mostly going to be a wash but it's hard to measure the geopolitical effect and things like leverage on trade - but even there, there might be an EEC-like way to do that. Finally, it'd be much less controversial, as there are almost no skeptics of the free market.

Re: Europe Is Trying to Reclaim Its Lost Chipmaking Glory

#100

Post by jollybean » Tue, Apr 27, 2021, 6:09 PM UTC

arp242 wrote: post #83

shimonabi wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stop mixing Europe with the EU. EU is a few decades old failed experiment, Europe exists for thousands of years. There is only talk of subsidizing EU chip production, because a few German car executives got worried.

The British use "Europe" to refer to the mainland, often implying that Britain isn't part of it. It's not a coincidence they left the EU, and were ever only half-way in the EU. Is Britain part of Europe? Well, it's not a yes/no type of question. "In some ways, but not in others" would probably be the best answer.

"The United Kingdom, made up of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, is an island nation in northwestern Europe."

The UK is part of Europe, that's for sure.

That they use 'Europe' to refer to 'The Continent' is an artifact of their singularity on the Island. Lind of like Quebecers refer to the 'Rest of Canada' as often just 'Canada'.

It's as much a part of Europe as Norway is for example, but neither of them belong to the EU.