Tesla Q1 2021 Results • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#451

Post by jgalt212 » Tue, Apr 27, 2021, 12:13 PM UTC

feifan wrote: post #91

jgalt212 wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

more importantly, why is it in any economic to install solar cells on a home instead of at scale on a solar farm?

Same reason you have heating units in your house/building rather than at a municipal heating plant … people want to buy self-sufficiency for their house/building, and it's easier than scoping/building large-scale projects and running wires and dealing with municipalities.

self-sufficiency has a cost, hence my "economic" question. Also, steam transmission is way less efficient than electricity transmission.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#452

Post by 11thEarlOfMar » Tue, Apr 27, 2021, 12:13 PM UTC

thrwyoilarticle wrote: post #411

brianwawok wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now compare 0-60 and infotainment systems. Is premium how fast the car goes, or how many paint colors it comes in? Different people have different requirements. You are likely paying over 100k to get a car as fast as a model 3.

>You are likely paying over 100k to get a car as fast as a model 3. Define fast

I believe they are talking about 0-60 times.

Model 3 Performance in Track mode is #12 in this list[0]. The least you can pay for this version is $55k.

#13 is a Jaguar XE SV Project at $188k

#11 is a Bentley Bentayga at $160,000

#10 is an Acura NSX at $157,000

[0] https://www.motortrend.com/news/quickest-cars-motortrend-201...

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#453

Post by clouddrover » Tue, Apr 27, 2021, 12:13 PM UTC

concordDance wrote: post #325

nikau wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except most real world tests show Tesla doesn't go any further than competing cars regardless of what their self reported EPA estimates say.

Can we have a source here?

Here's a range test of a Tesla Model Y (EPA range 326 miles) versus a Ford Mustang Mach E (EPA range 270 miles). But in a real world drive the Mach E gets more range:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSmSiOo-v8s

Tesla likes to maximize their EPA test cycle results to make the advertising look good, but it doesn't necessarily translate to real world results.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#454

Post by Consultant32452 » Tue, Apr 27, 2021, 12:14 PM UTC

3dee wrote: post #292

lumost wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had to look it up but for reference in Q1 2021 the big auto makers delivered the following. Ford: 521,334 GM: 642,250 Toyota: 2.46 million VW: 2.5 million If Tesla holds up they'll be larger than Ford in 2 years and be the largest automaker in the world in 4 years.

Right now Tesla is outperforming competition on three points: * 0-100km/h times * Range * Charging network I believe most people don't care about the 0-100 speed. And most people can live with a little less range. So this leaves the network as a selling point. I believe it depends on the country how important this is. For example in the Netherlands you can cross the whole country on one charge. So you don't need a ne…

Tesla is a status symbol. As long as they maintain that status they will be fine. Stats don’t matter that much with regards to being a status symbol.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#455

Post by iso1631 » Tue, Apr 27, 2021, 12:20 PM UTC

nixass wrote: post #412

yuribro wrote: post #395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the GP's statistics are correct, how does your anecdote changes anything? More than 70% of all car owners is a very viable market.

"More than 70%" does not mean "More than 70% have their own driveway". Apartments don't have driveways and underground garages are often hard to retrofit.

I used to live in a block of flats with, I was a director of the management company. We nominally had 1 parking space each, but it wasn't allocated.

We looked into putting in outside sockets, it was fairly low cost, the difficulty would be apportioning the metering as we didn't have allocated parking spaces, but with allocated parking spaces it's not a problem.

On my own housing estate in a typical British town almost every house has a drive. Those with two cars and just one drive that park 1 car on the drive and one on the street, but that's fine, just swap them occasionally (or better yet get rid of the extra car)

I can't think of seeing underground parking anywhere in the UK, other than commercial ones in cities like NCP etc.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#456

Post by 11thEarlOfMar » Tue, Apr 27, 2021, 12:20 PM UTC

ProAm wrote: post #198

11thEarlOfMar wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FWIW, I drove a BMW 328i for 20 years. Paid $39,000 for it. Put 230,000 miles on it. I loved that car dearly. I replaced it with a Model 3 and put 70,000 miles on it so far. Paid $49,000 for it, which is in the mid-point of what you'd pay for a new 328i. It's even more fun to drive, with operating costs at about 1/4 the BMW.

The model 3 looks like a $25,000 car when you buy it new though, and that's my problem with it.

I agree. Among other things, it's not shaped like other cars. I found the nose off-putting when I first saw the prototypes, and I was really skeptical about the display and mounting in the center of the cabin.

In all sincerity, after reading through the comments, it seems to me that the folks making negative claims are picking specific things they don't like, or relating what they've heard about the car. I expect that if they spent a week driving it in place of their current pony, they'd change their opinion. The overall experience is better than any other car I've driven.

Also, there are for sure people who simply don't care about the driving experience itself and see cars as nothing more than transportation. For them, I also can see the a Tesla would have much less appeal.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#457

Post by seunosewa » Tue, Apr 27, 2021, 12:21 PM UTC

dagw wrote: post #347

nine_k wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the market expands faster than your market share shrinks, your business still grows. Examples: IBM with IBM PC, Apple with iPhone.

Examples: IBM with IBM PC And we all know how many IBM PCs IBM has sold over the past decade. I think that IBM might actually be the most apt analogy for Tesla. 20 years from now Tesla will be a niche player in the market they built basically from scratch.

Why? Which companies will be the main players in that scenario?

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#458

Post by cs702 » Tue, Apr 27, 2021, 12:22 PM UTC

lumost wrote: post #224

cs702 wrote: post #132

Whatever you may think of Tesla and Musk, you have to agree that they've accomplished something rather incredible. Few would have thought this possible not that long ago: * 185K vehicle deliveries in Q1, +109% versus a year ago [a] * 2.7K supercharger stations, +41% versus a year ago * 24.5K supercharger connectors, +44% versus a year ago * 92 MW of solar generation deployed in Q1, +163% versus a year ago * 445 MWh o…

I had to look it up but for reference in Q1 2021 the big auto makers delivered the following. Ford: 521,334 GM: 642,250 Toyota: 2.46 million VW: 2.5 million If Tesla holds up they'll be larger than Ford in 2 years and be the largest automaker in the world in 4 years.

Your global figures for Ford and GM look wrong to me... but otherwise, I agree: If Tesla continues to grow at these rates, yes, eventually they will catch up with leading car manufacturers, all the way up to VW, currently the world's largest.

Tesla's online manufacturing capacity at quarter-end was ~1.05M EVs/year (~600K/year in California, ~450K/year in Shanghai), which works out to a run-rate of 262K/quarter, vs. 180K deliveries in Q1.

The two gigafactories already in construction, Berlin and Texas, look likely to come online within ~12 months. They should add at least 1M more EVs/year in manufacturing capacity, bringing the max possible quarterly run-rate to 500-600K/quarter.

The four gigafactories already in development look like to come online within 2-3 years, and should add at least 2M EVs/year in manufacturing capacity, bringing the max possible quarterly run-rate to 1M+/quarter.

To catch up with VW, Tesla would have to add 10-20 additional gigafactories beyond the 2 already in construction and the 4 in development. And of course, they would have to find buyers for all those EVs, most of which would have to be low price-tag, entry-level, mass-market vehicles, like Toyota's RAV4 and Corolla, and VW's Tiguan and Jetta.

It's possible for Tesla and Musk to overtake the likes of VW in volume -- if anyone can, it's them. But it's not certain that they'll be able to do it. Success is far from guaranteed, given that all automakers are going 100% electric now.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#459

Post by 11thEarlOfMar » Tue, Apr 27, 2021, 12:22 PM UTC

t0mas88 wrote: post #307

xxpor wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you're defining premium cars by the things that everyone hates about those cars, other than build quality. The German car companies will nickle and dime you to death with options, they have terrible interiors/user interfaces, etc. Granted I wish the model 3 had cooled seats but meh. Even a model S doesn't count with that logic.

Compared to a luxury German car I think the model 3 has far worse isolation, more plastic and vibrations, fake leather, much less seat options in terms of adjustments, often misaligned panels. All OK for the mid range car that it is, but I was responding to Tesla calling it the best selling premium car .

'More plastic and vibrations...' Please be more specific. More plastic than the BMW or Mercedes?

And what parts are vibrating? Do you mean making an audible sound? Or the car is shimmying?

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#460

Post by nikau » Tue, Apr 27, 2021, 12:24 PM UTC

concordDance wrote: post #325

nikau wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except most real world tests show Tesla doesn't go any further than competing cars regardless of what their self reported EPA estimates say.

Can we have a source here?

https://driving.ca/tesla/model-s/features/feature-story/rang...

our 2019 100D promised 491 kilometres of electrically-powered zero emission motoring while the Porsche’s said the Taycan would only be able to manage 345 km.

the Porsche had almost exactly delivered its expected range — 342 km according to our calculations, versus its original 345-km claim — the Model S was all but as dead as a door-nail at 355 klicks. For the record, the Tesla underperformed its predicted range by some 136 kilometres, or negative 27 per cent, while the Taycan exceeded its EPA rating by 15 klicks (more than four per cent).