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We were promised Strong AI, but instead we got metadata analysis

calpaterson.com

251–260 of 427 posts

Re: We were promised Strong AI, but instead we got metadata analysis

#251
The misunderstanding that leads to belief in strong AI is that meaning is somehow embedded in the symbols used to communicate it. Meaning is a natural process that occurs inside each of us, speech is just a symbol of that meaning, text is a symbol of that speech.

Further, meaning is an ever-evolving, ever-mutating process much like the universe.

Training on symbols cannot arrive at meaning, since the meaning isn’t contained in those symbols. Using past symbols, also means no room for evolution.

Machine learning does work though in areas where the needs of the end goal are densely present in the symbols being used for training.

Like recognizing text. We learn to recognize those marks from just the marks, and nothing else. And so those marks contain all that is needed to recognize them. This can be encoded/learned.

But what they mean isn’t encoded in them, nor is it in words, in sounds, in facial expressions, in tones, in body gestures. It may even lie in between us, rather than in us.

Re: We were promised Strong AI, but instead we got metadata analysis

#252

Well, yeah. Because "machine AI" has NOTHING much in common with how our biological brains work. And we aren't smart enough to know what intelligence really is when we can't even define it for ourselves or in animal models. And 99.999% of everyone working on machine AI has never taken a biology class let alone a class related to anatomy, neurology or experimental psychology so it's nothing more than "flinging shit on…

I think that's an intriguing point - and I also feel we generalize "artificial general intelligence" to the point & in such a way where humans have yet to even achieve that level of intelligence. How can we build smart systems if we don't know what smart even looks like and human benchmarks turn out inefficient for machines.

Re: We were promised Strong AI, but instead we got metadata analysis

#253
Is there any reason to believe, strong AI is around the corner?

I am not really engaged with AI-research, but I follow the area with interest and my impression is, that if strong AI will emerge in the next time, then only by accident. I mean there are lot's of awesome advancements and for example I did not expect Go to be solved since years already, but still - I see no way from current tech, to a general AI, that can really understand things.

Or is someone aware of more groundbreaking research?

Re: We were promised Strong AI, but instead we got metadata analysis

#254
post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cost of 12 months of a dating site is trivial compared to the benefits of finding the right person. If someone offered you a soulmate if you gave them a couple hundred dollars, you'd take it in a second, right? Paying ahead actually aligns your incentives better, because the site is no longer incentivized to drag you along single month after month to keep you paying.

Effectively, you're not paying for "12 months" despite the label, you're paying for a significant chance at finding a soulmate? If that's the case, why not label it as such?

Because after your 12 months you can't use the profile any more. Better to label what you pay for accurately.

Re: We were promised Strong AI, but instead we got metadata analysis

#255

Well, yeah. Because "machine AI" has NOTHING much in common with how our biological brains work. And we aren't smart enough to know what intelligence really is when we can't even define it for ourselves or in animal models. And 99.999% of everyone working on machine AI has never taken a biology class let alone a class related to anatomy, neurology or experimental psychology so it's nothing more than "flinging shit on…

You start with a riff on the naturalistic fallacy "nature did it so it must be the right way" and conclude that all efforts to create AI not informed by neurobiology are doomed to fail (as doomed to fail as randomly assembling components and hoping for a jet as the output)?

Further, I'd wager more than half of AI researchers are at least surface-level familiar with brain science, not (as you claim) less than 1 in a million (are there even a million AI researchers?). There's significant work between computational neuroscience, mathematics, philosophy, computer science, etc, etc in the field.

Many smart people are giving it their best effort to understand different pieces of the puzzle from many different viewpoints and angles; FAANG corporations might be among the most visible, but their AI is necessarily profit driven and close to the ground, relevant to currently tractable problems (amenable to 'mere statistics').

And in fact, slavishly copying nature is something which has long been on the AI back-burner, but we're on the order of at least a decade from being able to create a computer system with enough transistors to do so.

Not sure what else to say, really.

Re: We were promised Strong AI, but instead we got metadata analysis

#256

Since Dartmouth AI looks like a story of naive visions, exaggerated promises, massive disappointment, recurrent divisionary tactics, rebranding and snak oil sale. Until finally a light on the horizon became visible and academically camouflaged wishful thinking could be materialized into usable products. A groping in the dark, nothing more. There are probably good reasons why the blind watchmaker needed billions of ye…

As convoluted as this comment is, props for pointing out that evolution (and the formation of the solar system) took billions of years to produce intelligence. Can humanity do it in less time? Because biological evolution’s is oriented toward propagation of DNA rather than intelligence, we can ask what kind of evolutionary pressures lead to intelligence. Under what scenarios does higher intelligence lead to higher su…

I think that the role that human "instincts" play in the development of intelligence in our brain is very important. Social behavior is a key part of that.

We do see high levels of intelligence in non-mammal species, like crows, but they tend to also be very social creatures. The main counter example I can think of would be the octopus.

I think that even if we crack "general intelligence" and can make something that can problem-solve and learn on par with an Octopus, that approach will not get us to human level cognition.

I personally do believe that you will need societies of AI agents to develop the culture software to achieve human level cognition. I think we greatly underestimate the value and complexity of the cultural OS's that allow humans to perform advanced cognition.

Re: We were promised Strong AI, but instead we got metadata analysis

#257
post #13

This (1) thread from François Chollet describes 'Artificial Intelligence' very well in my opinion. From this point of view, it's obvious why you need to fallback to other data/metadata. Further, to the linked tweets and the OP, I don't think that there's a direct line from where we are to where we want to be. As an analogy, no advancement in chemical rockets is going to get us to Alpha Centauri. 1 - https://twitter.c…

Some good thoughts here, but I think this is mostly a criticism of classifier models. Things get more complicated when you start considering things like models that do transfer learning, rule inference, time/state awareness, reasoning by analogy, and generally unsupervised learning.

Re: We were promised Strong AI, but instead we got metadata analysis

#258
post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wasn't this also the story of a dating site (whose name escapes me. OKCupid? PoF?)? Original owner wrote an article about how paying for a dating site is a bad idea. Money is offered, article disappears. Searching is failing me at the moment edit: Was OKCupid: https://www.themarysue.com/okcupid-pulls-why-you-should-neve...

From the article > 12-moth plan > 6-month plan Why would a dating site have a 12-month plan, and why would a user of a dating site want a 12-month plan? Not only would you hopefully want to be off the site within 12 months, as soon as you found someone compatible, you would hopefully delete the app, but you've unnecessarily paid for months you will (hopefully) never use. I don't understand why anything but month-to-m…

Why are you assuming everyone is looking for long term relationships and not hookups or fwb?

Re: We were promised Strong AI, but instead we got metadata analysis

#259
That's interesting.. We're working on web data extraction in Zyte (former Scrapinghub); we have an Automatic Extraction product (https://docs.zyte.com/automatic-extraction-get-started.html) which combines ML and metadata to get data from websites automatically. Our learnings from building it:

1) metadata is helpful - not all of it, but some; 2) ML is obviously needed when metadata is missing, and metadata is missing very often; 2) Even when metadata is present, pure ML-based extraction often beats it in quality, with right ML models. A combination of ML+metadata fallbacks is even better.

Website creators often make mistakes providing metadata, they may misunderstand the schema and purpose of various fields, have metadata auto-generated incorrectly, etc. It is rarely about deceiving for the tasks we're working on (though it also may happen).

So, I don't see Zyte falling back to metadata analysis, ML models are already better than this human-provided metadata - but metadata is helpful, as one of the inputs.

We're going to publish product extraction benchmark soon, where, among other things, we compare automatic extraction with metadata-based extraction. In this evaluation we've got a result that ML + metadata is better than metadata not only overall (which is expected), but on precision as well.

I wonder if the reasons metadata is sometimes preferred are not related to quality, or to failure of ML approaches. If Google doesn't get data right, it is not Google's fault anymore, it is website's fault.

Re: We were promised Strong AI, but instead we got metadata analysis

#260
Strong AI is a terrible terminology. I understand that the term is widely used and accepted.

When people say Strong AI they often mean Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Weak AI by comparison is an even poorer term. What is usually meant is narrowly applied AI, and even, just usually, application-specific uses of machine learning.

But these narrow AI systems aren't weak. In fact, we're using those narrow applications of machine learning for some powerful applications. They're just not AGI.

In this article, Strong AI is used twice: in the title and once in some passing remark in the article. In neither case is it referring to AGI specifically. As such, what is not meant is Strong AI in the way that is accepted but perhaps just "highly trained" AI, or machine learning with lots of data. Regardless, the use of Strong AI in this article seems unnecessary and gratuitous

A good article on this topic: https://www.forbes.com/sites/cognitiveworld/2019/10/04/rethi...

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