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‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

theguardian.com

321–330 of 339 posts

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not OP but in NorCal (BayArea) is about $3/what. My 9.4kw system is generating about 55kwh a day right now. Because of the mild weather we've had, the last day we used more net power from the grid (than we produced) was March 18.

$3 per what?

Mobile keyboards. Sigh. Even when you type things right, they bite you.

At least as of last fall, it was roughly $3/watt for solar installs - before incentives. Right now TSLA advertises about $2.2/watt, which is by far cheaper than anyone else.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not OP but in NorCal (BayArea) is about $3/what. My 9.4kw system is generating about 55kwh a day right now. Because of the mild weather we've had, the last day we used more net power from the grid (than we produced) was March 18.

Is that a single family dwelling? If so, at 9.4 kW / 55 kWh per day, I would bloody hope you are exporting to the grid. That is an extreme amount of energy for a single family.

Yes. Single Family Home.

Last summer NorCal had some nasty heatwaves come through, with lots of "red flag" warnings. High winds, high heats. We had multiple days of 110F+. On those days we used more than 55kwh/day.

That being said, the game with solar is that of averages. Right now we're making a lot and exporting a lot. When the summer heats up, we'll be making even more power, but not exporting as much. In winter time we generally need more from the grid than we make.

Hopefully at the end of the year, we'll be near zero net.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#323
post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wuxi, at 5.03 million people (6.6 million in the prefecture it governs) has about three times the population of Birmingham, England (1.1 million inhabitants, 3.7 million in the metropolitan era). The Wuxi prefecture covers 4600 km², the Birmingham area 600 km², a ratio of about 8:1; the cities proper are 1640 km² (the five districts of Wuxi with the 5 million population, excluding Jiangyin and Yixin) and 268 km² (Bir…

I think you're missing the guy moved there in 2000 not 2010 or 2019. Birmingham, probably a smaller city in it's own right anyways (England doesn't really have "big city" outside London), has probably not grown any significant amount in 20 years. I wouldn't be surprised if Wuxi more than doubled. 20:1 would be "Wuxi City" (i.e. prefecture where the 6.5 million comes from) as a whole to Birmingham the traditional "cit…

Those are good points. Surely #1 and #3 are correct.

I think we agree on the central point: that rags like the Grauniad systematically understate the sizes of urbanizations in China, in a variety of ways. We might disagree on why, and what the effect is.

As for #2, the question of what to call a "city" is sort of more about the cultural practices of translators than about patterns of urban growth. People in China mostly don't call Wuxi a "city"; I think they call it a 市 (the administrative unit), a 地级市 (the larger administrative unit Wuxi Prefecture), a 城市 (the social phenomenon), a 都市, or a 城. How the Guardian chooses to describe Wuxi for their English-speaking readers, mostly outside China, is really the question here.

You seem to be suggesting that writers draw the English-language line between "town" and "city" at a larger population level when they're talking about Chinese cities than when they're talking about cities in, say, England. I think you're correct. I picked three smaller "cities" in Jiangsu from Wikipedia to see how the English-speaking press describes them: Pizhou (population 163k; nytimes: "a village in Jiangsu Province in eastern China"), Yangzhong (pop. 344k; Grauniad: "a county-level city in Jiangsu province", "Yangzhong city"), and Jintan (564k; BBC: "the town of Jintan").

Wuxi has probably more than doubled since 02000, as you say, and Birmingham surely hasn't. However, even in 02000 I don't know if it was a "small city" in any absolute sense (rather than compared to Suzhou and Shanghai). Its population was surely already larger and denser than Birmingham's.

Some Western cities do have that kind of powerhouse growth; a bit of searching turns up Toluca, The Woodlands (arguably still too small to be a "city"), Brasilia, and Las Vegas. Their growth rates are in the same neighborhood as Wuxi's over the last 20 years. Brasilia, for example, has grown from 2.0 million in 02000 to 3.0 million today, 4.3 million in the metro area.

However, I'm not sure I understand your concern about how making these comparisons is "just going to confuse people." What kind of information do you think would be more useful for understanding how big Wuxi is than knowing that its population exceeds that of, for example, Mongolia, Puerto Rico, or any metropolitan area in Germany, and that the population density in its center is half that of Manhattan but three times that of Birmingham? If someone is led by the "small city" terminology to think that Wuxi is similar in size to Johnstown, PA (pop. 25000), or Wiesbaden (pop. 291000, metro area over half a million), they're already confused; wouldn't "googling population of Wuxi and comparing it to familiar population of city" clear that right up?

At least after you cut through the terminological ambiguity of whether "Wuxi" means Liangxi Qu, the five districts of Wuxi City, or the whole Wuxi prefecture, and the analogous ambiguity of where to draw the limits of "London" (the Square Mile?) or "Sydney" or whatever familiar city you're comparing to, it seems like you'd be less confused after making those comparisons, rather than more confused.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#324
post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which contributes more to the conversation: using a silly date format and calculating how many times bigger Wuxi is than Birmingham and how its growth and historical development relates to the overall boom in renewable energy, or derailing a thread about renewable energy by posting "I have no idea what your point is" and "Pedantry of the nth level"? Which one produces a conversation you'd rather be involved in? (16-b…

The medium is the message. Look, if you and I are talking about the population of Birmingham, but instead of speaking normally you are signing your comments to the tune of "Never gonna give you up", I'm not going to reply to anything about Birmingham. I'm going to go "Uh, what's with the singing, are you OK?" I think you got what you wanted, which was to show to everybody how cool you are with your long now dates, an…

> you are signing[sic] your comments to the tune of "Never gonna give you up", I'm not going to reply to anything about Birmingham. I'm going to go "Uh, what's with the singing, are you OK?"

What, you mean like https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26892923? Or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJ25-U3jNWM, about the other Birmingham? Or https://youtu.be/WQ0y-vO9QLE?t=60?

Come round by my side and I'll sing you a song.

I'll sing it so softly, it'll do no one wrong.

On Birmingham Sunday the blood ran like wine,

And the choirs kept singing of Freedom.

Do you really think "What's with the singing?" would be a positive contribution as a response to any of those? More generally, is mindless conformism ever a positive contribution anywhere? Where could it be more unworthy than on a site named "Hacker News", founded to celebrate the achievements of nonconformists? Who appointed you to the Committee to Suppress Playfulness? Have you never heard that "hacking" is "the playful application of ingenuity"?

> show to everybody how cool you are

Using silly date formats is not a good measure of being "cool". Helping people understand things they didn't understand before—for example, by making substantive contributions to a discussion—is a good measure of being "cool".

> the conversation is exactly where you wanted it

Obviously enough, your comments are motivated by your internal motivations, not mine.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#325
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where are we at in 2021 for pay off period? Does it vary by region?

In Australia, after a $2500 .gov subsidy, mine will pay for themselves in 4.5 years. LG Panels with 25 Year output guarantee. 6.6kw System. Financially speaking it's a complete no brainer. One thing I did notice when I was living in the USA though, was how expensive it was over there compared to Australia. Installation costs are 3x the price, I have no idea why. My system before the subsidy was $11k, and that was for…

As an example of internationally known brand/quality, here's a complete installed 6.6kw system from IKEA for AUD$5047 (AUD$3197 after subsidy).

That includes panels, inverter, mounting system, and installation.

https://www.ikea.com/au/en/customer-service/product-support/...

At this price point, it's becoming a no-brainer.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think researchers underestimated how much solar simply “makes sense” to the average person. Once the price is reasonable enough, people are very easily able to latch onto the idea of using what they already know and feel - the sun’s heat. Whenever I mention the solar panels in my parents house, the first question is always about the price. When I tell them they will break even in a few years, their next question is…

If and only if you own the land (or enough land) to put solar collection on!! That's NOT MOST PEOPLE. And not that many "average people".

Depends on where you live. Sure, if you an apartment heavy area like Singapore, then no - but based on some very quick googling, it looks like globally around 60% to 80% of the population live in detached or semi-detached houses, where they own the roof, so there's your free space.

Even when people rent, I can see having solar panels simply becoming factored into the rent equation. If the renter can expect to save $100 off their monthly power bill, then the landlord can easily ask for an additional $80 in rent, which means they make more profit over the owned lifetime of the property.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#327

Relevant quote: "Every time you double producing capacity, you reduce the cost of PV solar by 28%." Current worldwide PV manufacturing capacity is roughly 165 GW [1] [2], with a utility scale price close to $0.01/kWh [3]. Manufacturing capacity is doubling every ~4 years. Global PV capacity in service is ~600 GW. IEA Average global annual capacity additions in main and accelerated cases, 2023-2025: https://www.iea.or…

Global PV annual power production was at ~1800 TWhr/yr in 2019. Total global electricity generation was ~26,000 TWhr/yr.[1] If the doubling time is 4 years, it would take about 15 years (so 2034) for solar to be producing as much as the current global electricity generation. At that point, the cost will have dropped to 28% of what it is now (so let's say it's $20/MWhr now, that becomes ~$5/MWhr.

If the doubling keeps up, then solar would hit the current total world energy consumption only 3 years later (ie, before 2040). Exponential scaling is crazy. I've tried incorporating the growth rate of current demand, but it only adds a couple years to each of these dates.

[1]https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-consumption

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#328

One thought around all this is that irregular power costs could increase the incentive for appliances that consume electricity during the day and give it off at night - refrigerator freezing huge chunks of ice, large hot water tanks, larger batteries for drills or laptops.

Only if there is real-time pricing. It's up to the utility b/c consumers aren't incentivized to time-shift the load, as it stands.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#329
post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I work in electronics. Nowadays there are chips which simply don't get documentation in English because chipmakers simply don't have a single client needing it, because all design, and engineering has moved to China. People have no idea how little their electronics industries mean on the world stage. I believe it would be no big stretch to say that PV cells research in the West is nearly inconsequential to the indust…

> Nowadays there are chips which simply don't get documentation in English because chipmakers simply don't have a single client needing it Oh, yeah, even the CKS32 chip on my Blue Pill only has a Chinese datasheet. It's common. (Worse is when you can get the Chinese datasheet at all only if you know the right people, who invariably live in Shenzhen. Or Wuxi, or maaybe Taipei.) It's not a totally new problem. My aunt…

I've found your contributions in this thread interesting but I don't get this:

> As Naomi Wu says, Chinese is the 21st-century command line.

Care to explain it further?

(By the way, I searched for the quote to try to read it in the context in which it was first made but couldn't find it. So I guess it's a paraphrase.)

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#330
post #329
post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nowadays there are chips which simply don't get documentation in English because chipmakers simply don't have a single client needing it Oh, yeah, even the CKS32 chip on my Blue Pill only has a Chinese datasheet. It's common. (Worse is when you can get the Chinese datasheet at all only if you know the right people, who invariably live in Shenzhen. Or Wuxi, or maaybe Taipei.) It's not a totally new problem. My aunt…

I've found your contributions in this thread interesting but I don't get this: > As Naomi Wu says, Chinese is the 21st-century command line. Care to explain it further? (By the way, I searched for the quote to try to read it in the context in which it was first made but couldn't find it. So I guess it's a paraphrase.)

I might be misremembering it (I think she said it on Twitter), but the way I understand it is as follows.

If you use your computer only through Nautilus, Firefox, and Instagram, you will commonly encounter software problems that you cannot solve, or solve only through a lot of manual drudgery. But, with a deeper understanding of the layers behind the simplified interface—layers which, for historical reasons, commonly work through "command lines", such as the JS console in the browser, the GRUB command line for booting Linux, or of course the Linux bash prompt—you often need only minutes to solve problems that would have taken hours or days to solve by hand.

Similarly, today, if you want to solve hardware problems, you will often find yourself confronted with datasheets or forum threads that are written in Chinese. If you don't speak Chinese, you will either be unable to solve the problem, or you will have to reconstruct the information needed through experimentation, or by help from someone who does speak Chinese.

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