Live data from Hacker News

‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

theguardian.com

281–290 of 339 posts

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#281

> "[in 2000] Shi agreed and ended up settling in the small city of Wuxi" A bit of a tangent, but it’s always strange to me when people describe Chinese or Indian cities with millions of residents as "small". Wuxi had >1 million people in 2000, and today has like 3.5 million (6.5 million in the prefecture). This article makes it sound like a minor town in a remote province, but Jiangsu has about the same population as…

Pretty much all European cities are small bar Paris and London so no need to qualify them. Same in the US. NYC and Chicago are the only big cities by Asian standards (LA isn’t really a city IMO but population wise would also qualify).

Moscow is larger than Paris or London. Madrid is 5-6 million. Saint Petersburg, Barcelona and Berlin are over five million. None of those are small by Asian standards. (to claim Paris is a large city by Asian standards, you must be going by the metropolitan area population)

The Los Angeles metro area is also one of the largest in the world. It is very obviously a city by the same standards that define sprawling Asian cities, and it's larger than Chicago.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think researchers underestimated how much solar simply “makes sense” to the average person. Once the price is reasonable enough, people are very easily able to latch onto the idea of using what they already know and feel - the sun’s heat. Whenever I mention the solar panels in my parents house, the first question is always about the price. When I tell them they will break even in a few years, their next question is…

> I tell them they will break even in a few years Then why don't more companies offer to become your electricity provider and install the solar panels for free? They could say "We promise that your energy bills will be cheaper this year than last year (as long as you don't use more energy), and within a few years you'll own the panels and can switch to a different electricity provider."

In the Netherlands at least there are several suppliers that will lease your roof to put solar panels on it and then either give you a monthly fee or you use them as supplier and you get discount on the bill.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#283
post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think Western partners are just appropriating the credit here, though. Lots of people in lots of countries have been working hard for decades to develop and improve photovoltaic cells and their manufacturing processes. A huge number of those people are Chinese, but by no means all of them. Look at, for example, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S13640... and in particular the recent works…

I work in electronics. Nowadays there are chips which simply don't get documentation in English because chipmakers simply don't have a single client needing it, because all design, and engineering has moved to China. People have no idea how little their electronics industries mean on the world stage. I believe it would be no big stretch to say that PV cells research in the West is nearly inconsequential to the indust…

> Nowadays there are chips which simply don't get documentation in English because chipmakers simply don't have a single client needing it

Oh, yeah, even the CKS32 chip on my Blue Pill only has a Chinese datasheet. It's common. (Worse is when you can get the Chinese datasheet at all only if you know the right people, who invariably live in Shenzhen. Or Wuxi, or maaybe Taipei.) It's not a totally new problem. My aunt had to learn German for her chemistry degree back in the 01960s, and here in Argentina pretty much everybody who learns to program has to learn English. Gauss wrote his dissertation in Latin; Euler wrote most of his papers in Latin. As Naomi Wu says, Chinese is the 21st-century command line.

But where was RISC-V designed? At Berkeley. By professors and grad students from China, Korea, Vietnam, Poland, the US, Greece, and Germany, I think. (Asanović is naturalized American.)

I agree that there's a lot of unpublished knowledge (PV is part of the semi industry), and a lot of that knowledge is being created in places like Wuxi. But I don't think it's true that the tip of the iceberg we can see is so inconsequential. That tip is what prevents things like the circa-2000 capacitor plague, and many new developments originate in basic research long before they make it to mass production, PERC being perhaps the latest.

Also, you can bet that the rulers of Pakistan, Saudia Arabia, Jordan, Iran, Brazil, and Egypt are not enthusiastic about their countries' access to their own abundant solar energy being dependent on their foreign relations with China, or on China's internal industrial policy; nor do they want their solar power stations to ship with Chinese remote kill switches—not currently a thing, but certainly feasible if China's bargaining position improves sufficiently.

We've seen how that kind of thing plays out many times: the US backdoor in Crypto AG hardware, the US blockade of oil to Japan in WWII, the assassinations of the Iranian nuclear scientists, the constant struggles with US export controls in every country that isn't the US (Tianhe-2 being a recent salient example), China's rare-earth exportation clampdown 10 years ago, the US oil blockade that led Germany to spin up Fischer–Tropsch coal liquefaction, the CIA-backed overthrow of Mossadegh, and so on. So quite reasonably they're investing in the possibility of developing autonomous national solar industries, a 21st-century Saudi Aramco and YPF, just without the oil.

Will they be successful? Maybe. Or maybe they'd have to do what China did for process engineering: get Chinese PV companies to open factories in Egypt and Jordan in order to transfer the necessary knowhow.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#284
post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One reason is issues with property ownership. In the U.K. a company could do this but if the original customers were to see the house, they’d have no legal means of compelling the new owners to take up the arrangement. At least that’s what I understand.

The plural of anecdote is not data, but I can provide some figures. There is currently a push in London to get households install solar panels, and I expressed interest in getting a set installed to our house. Sadly, the finances don't add up. Our house is not exactly small, and optimistically you could fit 10 PV panels on the roof. At least according to the quote I received, but having scouted installations in the n…

That is a long time to wait for break even. I paid €3700 for 4500Wp and I expect to earn them back in 3-4years.

I’m facing almost directly south without any shade from trees.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is never any skepticism about the technology, the safety, the long term impact (as you would have if someone was setting up a nuclear or gas power plant). They simply “get it” This is also a bad thing, because there are some real issues with PV panels too: leaking toxic materials, recycling problems, environmental side-effects because you need to mine for rare earths and critical metals, etc. It's far from be…

> leaking toxic materials What toxic materials?

It's selection bias.

For example, the truth may look like this:

The majority of new solar panels use zero toxic materials.

Old solar panels installed decades ago had toxic materials until the introduction of a ban that banned these toxic materials.

A small minority of solar panels are thin film panels and they use cadmium.

However, since we have started with the "solar panels are bad" bias we are trying to look for evidence.

Selection bias results in a search for "solar panels toxic materials":

The problem? People are mostly getting rid of problematic solar panels in the first place. Regular solar panels can be easily recycled, you extract the glass, the aluminum, the silver, the lead free solder and sometimes even the wafers and then you are left with some residual problem materials, things like leaded solder or unrecycleable thin film cells.

Those things make the news, grab the clicks and give the appearance that all solar panels are like that, because those articles aren't there to present reality, they are there to lie by omission and misrepresent so that their readership has one more story that fits in with an overall narrative, no matter how misguided that narrative is.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#286
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think researchers underestimated how much solar simply “makes sense” to the average person. Once the price is reasonable enough, people are very easily able to latch onto the idea of using what they already know and feel - the sun’s heat. Whenever I mention the solar panels in my parents house, the first question is always about the price. When I tell them they will break even in a few years, their next question is…

Where are we at in 2021 for pay off period? Does it vary by region?

In the UK it takes a while:

"The price of a typical solar panel system is about £4,800. It can take anywhere between 15 and 26 years to recoup this costs, for a typical home – depending on where you live"

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/free-solar-panel...

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My power provider has a scheme (I forget the name) where basically your entire electricity bill goes to "green" electricity producers. The logic is that you can't control where your electricity comes from , but you can easily control where your money goes . That way, no matter where you get your power from, all your money goes to green sources.

I understood a problem that energy providers are investing some minimum (perhaps only the legal minimum) into green provision, an amount that they would have anyway. And, selling this onwards as a premium to the end user without actually changing their behaviour. Since you get the same service (your power ultimately comes from the same grid), it's a pure price discrimination strategy. [This is maybe a general restate…

If the CO2 price was sufficiently high it would be cheaper to go with the green plan.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#288
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where are we at in 2021 for pay off period? Does it vary by region?

In Australia, after a $2500 .gov subsidy, mine will pay for themselves in 4.5 years. LG Panels with 25 Year output guarantee. 6.6kw System. Financially speaking it's a complete no brainer. One thing I did notice when I was living in the USA though, was how expensive it was over there compared to Australia. Installation costs are 3x the price, I have no idea why. My system before the subsidy was $11k, and that was for…

Very interesting -- currently in WA and quite interested too. What size house you're referring to?

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty much all European cities are small bar Paris and London so no need to qualify them. Same in the US. NYC and Chicago are the only big cities by Asian standards (LA isn’t really a city IMO but population wise would also qualify).

Moscow is larger than Paris or London. Madrid is 5-6 million. Saint Petersburg, Barcelona and Berlin are over five million. None of those are small by Asian standards. (to claim Paris is a large city by Asian standards, you must be going by the metropolitan area population) The Los Angeles metro area is also one of the largest in the world. It is very obviously a city by the same standards that define sprawling Asian…

Russia is Russia. I don’t count it as European though people do. I live in Berlin and it is small (also it’s only 3.6m people metro area). LA is all metro area with no city which is why I don’t think of it as a city. It doesn’t have the density. Measuring Paris’ population by city proper makes no sense at all. Having spent considerable time in all 3 continents and many of the cities mentioned I think there is a significant difference once cities hit 8m+ population. They become much more imposing and seem to suffer from a different class of infrastructure problems than small cities.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hmm, difficult to agree with that as a blanket statement. Generally that kind of absolutist thinking is as flawed as the same in the other direction. The optimum is likely somewhere in the middle. For example, failure to price in externalities in a 'free' market is one of the biggest flaws, and exactly why we find ourselves in a situation of having way too much CO2 in the atmosphere.

I don't think any serious free market advocate thinks the government doesn't have a place in restricting and producing negative and positive externalities, respectively. A free market generally means one where one's control over their person and private property is not restricted as long as that control is not being exercised to violate other's equal right to their person and private property, and to the commons . Bu…

Distilled down to its essence a free market grants you protection from involuntary transactions and access to voluntary transactions. Externalities are involuntary transactions, from a free market perspective they aren't any different from robbery or the dreaded... taxes.

However, taxes are collected by the government that our population has voted in (in democratic nations). This is also why we prefer government monopolies over private monopolies, because we have a degree of control, we get to choose.

The only dilemma is that the choice of government is on a societal level, individuals may not get what they voted for. However, there is no good solution to this problem and the search for a solution will only stop after the end of humanity.

Post reply on HN