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‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

theguardian.com

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Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#271

Post by rurban »

jacobolus wrote: post #70

> "[in 2000] Shi agreed and ended up settling in the small city of Wuxi" A bit of a tangent, but it’s always strange to me when people describe Chinese or Indian cities with millions of residents as "small". Wuxi had >1 million people in 2000, and today has like 3.5 million (6.5 million in the prefecture). This article makes it sound like a minor town in a remote province, but Jiangsu has about the same population as…

You need to see the context. Wuxi is between Shuzhou (10m) and Nanjing (8.8m), next to Shanghai (26m) and Hangzhou (21m). All much much bigger than Wuxi. Wuxi was once pretty important, but it lost its importance when the tin production ran out. It literally means "No tin anymore". People see it is neat small garden city. Wuxi itself is very small, but has two bigger satellite cities outside, Yixing (>1mil) and Jiangyin (>1mil).

Compared to Shuzhou and its other neighbors it's tiny. Small city is ok.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#272

Post by rorykoehler »

jillesvangurp wrote: post #234
jacobolus wrote: post #70

> "[in 2000] Shi agreed and ended up settling in the small city of Wuxi" A bit of a tangent, but it’s always strange to me when people describe Chinese or Indian cities with millions of residents as "small". Wuxi had >1 million people in 2000, and today has like 3.5 million (6.5 million in the prefecture). This article makes it sound like a minor town in a remote province, but Jiangsu has about the same population as…

I used to have a Chinese colleague who when asked where he came from would answer that he was from "A small town, you wouldn't know it. Only 3M people". He was right; I had never heard of it. I guess in China, which has multiple mega cities, that is indeed a bit unremarkable. It's all relative.

China has over 100 cities with a population north of 1 million.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#273

Post by ahartmetz »

hebrox wrote: post #185
apatheticonion wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's run the numbers! - Every 4 years our production doubles - Meaning every year our production capacity increases by .5 (or 5 times every decade). - The first year (2020) starts at 165GWh capacity production - The total energy use of the world (in 2013) was 157,000 TWh. - Annual growth in energy demand was 40% between 1990 and 2008. - 20% for the US - 150% for China Let's calculate solar energy generation capacity…

When I look at this chart [0], seeing that we’re wasting about 2/3 of our energy, I expect the energy demand to drop significantly if we electrify everything and have more local energy sources. [0]: https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/

Note that much of the waste probably comes from thermal / fossil power generation, which is unavoidable even in theory (cf. Carnot efficiency).

That is, unavoidable unless chemical energy is turned into electrical energy directly like in fuel cells (these have smaller but still surprisingly large losses), or the rejected thermal energy is used for heating.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#274

Post by Hammershaft »

lumost wrote: post #55
wizzwizz4 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you push for free markets, Big Oil isn't going to be the first to yield. If we can't get rid of CO₂ subsidies, solar subsidies are necessary.

The free market really has no method of pricing developments with 30+ years to profit/free cash flow. The government first started subsidizing solar to be price competitive in specific situations in the 1970s. There simply aren't any rational free market actors funding large unprofitable initiatives for 40 years with the expectation that the technology will be a bananza after all the principals have retired or are de…

Exactly, private market r&d dollars chase a local maximum that influenced by the length of patent laws.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#275

Post by concordDance »

zaroth wrote: post #5
toomuchtodo wrote: post #2

Relevant quote: "Every time you double producing capacity, you reduce the cost of PV solar by 28%." Current worldwide PV manufacturing capacity is roughly 165 GW [1] [2], with a utility scale price close to $0.01/kWh [3]. Manufacturing capacity is doubling every ~4 years. Global PV capacity in service is ~600 GW. IEA Average global annual capacity additions in main and accelerated cases, 2023-2025: https://www.iea.or…

Fusion power you can install on your roof. Throw in a little storage and a decent climate and the power companies are on track to be thoroughly screwed.

I think you underestimate how complex the powergrid is and how hard the storage problem is. Try running the numbers on how much battery you'd need to run california off solar reliably.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#276

Post by KoftaBob »

StavrosK wrote: post #113
anonuser123456 wrote: post #77

Is there a way to invest directly in solar to offset your personal use, without installing it directly on your house/land? My existing house isn’t particularly suitable from a cost perspective to install solar on (clay tile roof, a good 20 years left at least). I also don’t really want to manage an installation project, nor own the maintenance and risk. But I would pay to directly offset my consumption. Something lik…

My power provider has a scheme (I forget the name) where basically your entire electricity bill goes to "green" electricity producers. The logic is that you can't control where your electricity comes from , but you can easily control where your money goes . That way, no matter where you get your power from, all your money goes to green sources.

This is how it works in Massachusetts, it's pretty cool to be able to select a renewable energy power producer hooked up to the state's grid to receive your electric bill money.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#277

Post by baybal2 »

ivanhoe wrote: post #250
puranjay wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think researchers underestimated how much solar simply “makes sense” to the average person. Once the price is reasonable enough, people are very easily able to latch onto the idea of using what they already know and feel - the sun’s heat. Whenever I mention the solar panels in my parents house, the first question is always about the price. When I tell them they will break even in a few years, their next question is…

> There is never any skepticism about the technology, the safety, the long term impact (as you would have if someone was setting up a nuclear or gas power plant). They simply “get it” This is also a bad thing, because there are some real issues with PV panels too: leaking toxic materials, recycling problems, environmental side-effects because you need to mine for rare earths and critical metals, etc. It's far from be…

> leaking toxic materials

What toxic materials?

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#278

Post by dzhiurgis »

Ma8ee wrote: post #227
dane-pgp wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I tell them they will break even in a few years Then why don't more companies offer to become your electricity provider and install the solar panels for free? They could say "We promise that your energy bills will be cheaper this year than last year (as long as you don't use more energy), and within a few years you'll own the panels and can switch to a different electricity provider."

Because if you want to do it at scale it’s cheaper to install some GW on a field somewhere than bothering with roofs of privately owned residential buildings.

I totally agree, but my partner says - fields for forests, not for stock or solar. We can totally pull it off using roofs, but I agree it costs more and is not possible for some.

Lithuania has this solar share that you can buy - the only option for most people as they live in apartments, but you do get dicked by monthly maintenance fee.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#279

Post by dzhiurgis »

supermatt wrote: post #197
koolba wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where are we at in 2021 for pay off period? Does it vary by region?

To install on your roof - 7-8 years in lithuania. There is a ~20% subsidy for up to 10kW systems. Alternatively, pending a change in the law, there are solar fields where you can purchase panels (also eligible for subsidy) and pay an annual maintenance fee. In this case it is around 6-7 yrs.

Annual fees on those farms make no sense...

We've got a quote for €6k - €2.5k subsidy for 8KW system. We use a ton of power - which is a main factor how quickly you get your money back.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#280

Post by ginko »

apatheticonion wrote: post #182
toomuchtodo wrote: post #2

Relevant quote: "Every time you double producing capacity, you reduce the cost of PV solar by 28%." Current worldwide PV manufacturing capacity is roughly 165 GW [1] [2], with a utility scale price close to $0.01/kWh [3]. Manufacturing capacity is doubling every ~4 years. Global PV capacity in service is ~600 GW. IEA Average global annual capacity additions in main and accelerated cases, 2023-2025: https://www.iea.or…

Let's run the numbers! - Every 4 years our production doubles - Meaning every year our production capacity increases by .5 (or 5 times every decade). - The first year (2020) starts at 165GWh capacity production - The total energy use of the world (in 2013) was 157,000 TWh. - Annual growth in energy demand was 40% between 1990 and 2008. - 20% for the US - 150% for China Let's calculate solar energy generation capacity…

Grandparent wrote 165GW not GWh. 165GW is 1445TWh per year.
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